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UK Services PMI was finalized at 51.3 in November down from October's 52.3. Composite PMI eased to 51.2 from 52.2, marking a clear loss of momentum after several months of improvement. S&P Global’s Tim Moore said the data show an “abrupt end” to the gradual recovery in order books seen since summer, with demand weakening in both domestic and export markets.

Lower workloads fed through to a slowdown in business activity growth, pushing expansion well below the post-pandemic trend. Firms also cut staffing levels at the fastest pace since February, pointing to an increasingly cautious operating environment. Survey respondents cited fragile client confidence, rising risk aversion and elevated policy uncertainty in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, with many delaying major spending decisions.

Competitive pressures intensified as firms struggled with weak sales pipelines. While input cost inflation accelerated—largely due to higher wages—selling price inflation rose at the slowest pace in nearly five years, signaling a squeeze on margins.

Full UK PMI services final release here.

Eurozone Services PMI final rose to 53.6 in November from 53.0, marking a 30-month high and reinforcing the sector’s position as the main driver of regional growth. Composite PMI also improved to 52.8 from 52.5—another 30-month high—indicating that services strength more than compensated for continued manufacturing softness.

Country-level PMI Composite showed broad participation: Ireland led with a 42-month high at 55.8, while Italy also hit a 31-month high at 53.8. Germany (52.34) and Spain (55.1) softened slightly, and France returned to expansion at 50.4.

Hamburg Commercial Bank Chief Economist Cyrus de la Rubia said the data show “clear signs of recovery” across the services sector. The improvement was strong enough to lift overall Eurozone output, supporting expectations of a “slight acceleration” in Q4 growth. Though the headline index remains “far from a boom,” De la Rubia described the overall performance as “relatively robust,” underpinned by encouraging geographical breadth.

Price indicators delivered mixed but generally favorable signals for policymakers. Services selling-price inflation—which the ECB monitors closely—“weakened significantly” again, while wage growth c is gradually easing. Taken together, the data are likely to strengthen the ECB’s conviction in keeping interest rates on hold at the upcoming meeting.

Full Eurozone PMI services final release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market soared by almost 7% over the past day, reaching a capitalisation of $3.15T and forming a higher local peak compared to Sunday. The mood on the crypto market was buoyed by moves from institutional giants Vanguard and Bank of America to open access to digital assets for their clients. Combined with the fact that the low point on December 1st is higher than the lows on November 21st, we are seeing a series of vital signs of an upward trend forming. However, a conservative view suggests that fluctuations below $3.38T are a correction from the previous decline.

Bitcoin approached $94K on Wednesday morning, recovering half of its losses from the sell-off between November 11th and 21st. Considering the entire decline from its October peak, BTCUSD remains trading below $ 98K as part of the correction. The $98-100K range contains three psychologically significant levels: the 50-day average, early November support, and 61.8% of the decline from the peak. Consolidation above this level could convince buyers that crypto winter has not arrived.

News Background

Vanguard, the world’s second-largest investment company by assets, will open access to crypto ETF trading for its clients on December 2nd. The company had previously stated that it would avoid Bitcoin funds because cryptocurrency is an “immature asset class” and does not fit with the company’s philosophy.

Bank of America, one of the largest banks in the United States, has recommended that its institutional clients allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies. Previously, investors were unable to access cryptocurrencies because advisors were prohibited from recommending such instruments.

The four-year cycle theory has ceased to work, so Bitcoin has a chance to reach new highs in 2026, according to Grayscale. Analysts believe there are already some signs that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 205.43; (P) 205.85; (R1) 206.36; More...

GBP/JPY is extending consolidations below 207.18 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 204.26 support holds. Above 207.18 will resume larger rise to retest 208.09 high. Firm break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. However, decisive break of 204.26 will bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 202.94).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 199.04 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 180.58; (P) 180.97; (R1) 181.59; More...

EUR/JPY is still bounded in sideway consolidations below 181.98 and intraday bias stays neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 178.80 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 181.98 will target 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90 next. However, firm break of 178.80 will argue that deeper correction is already underway towards 55 D EMA (now at 177.62).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 169.87) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8785; (P) 0.8794; (R1) 0.8806; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral outlook is unchanged. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.745) will solidify the case of bearish reversal. Deeper fall should then be seen to 0.8631 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). However, break of 0.8816 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 0.8863 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8600) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7660; (P) 1.7711; (R1) 1.7757; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside for 1.7627 support. Firm break there will argue that decline from 0.8160 is ready to resume through 1.7561 support next. On the upside, above 1.7794 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7426) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9322; (P) 0.9335; (R1) 0.9348; More....

Sideway trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, fall from 0.9660 could have completed at 0.9178, on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Above 0.9349 will resume the rise from 0.9178, and target 0.9452 resistance next. However, break of 0.9275 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9178 low instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9371). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3952; (P) 1.3984; (R1) 1.4000; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 1.3936. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA(now at 1.4021) holds. Below 1.3936 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.4139 at 1.3909. Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise from 1.3538 has completed. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.3768 next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 1.4139 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6544; (P) 0.6558; (R1) 0.6578; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside at this point. Decisive break of 0.6579 resistance should confirm that whole fall from 0.6706 has completed as a three wave correction. Stronger rally should then be seen back to retest 0.6706. However, below 0.6519 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.6413 key support.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.