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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

ActionForex

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1566; (P) 1.1587; (R1) 1.1603; More

No change in EUR/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 1.1655 will affirm the case that fall from 1.1917 has completed as a correction at 1.1467. Bias will be back on the upside for 1.1727 resistance first. However, break of 1.1561 will revive near term bearishness and target 1.1467 low instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.98; (P) 155.36; (R1) 155.89; More...

USD/JPY's rally is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 153.60 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3127; (P) 1.3152; (R1) 1.3170; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidations. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3787, and target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3182) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2824) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7956; (P) 0.7979; (R1) 0.8019; More

USD/CHF's extended rebound and break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7986) argues that corrective pattern from 0.7828 low is still extending. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8123 resistance. On the downside, below 0.7937 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Break of 0.7877 will bring retest of 0.7828 low.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6476; (P) 0.6498; (R1) 0.6530; More...

AUD/USD is still bounded in range of 0.6457/6579 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 0.6457 will target 0.6413 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 0.6579 will bring stronger rise to 0.6616 resistance. Firm break there will target a retest of 0.6706 high.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3954; (P) 1.4008; (R1) 1.4045; More...

USD/CAD's pullback from 1.4139 resumed by breaking through 1.3984 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen towards 1.3886 support. But strong rebound should be seen there to preserve the whole rally from 1.3538. On the upside, above 1.4061 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.4139.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9222; (P) 0.9244; (R1) 0.9280; More....

EUR/CHF's extended rebound suggests that a short term bottom was already formed at 0.9178, and lengthier consolidations would be seen. Still, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9325 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.9178 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9377). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8800; (P) 0.8812; (R1) 0.8820; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8765 support will confirm short term topping. Deeper fall should then be seen back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8734) even still as a correction. On the upside, however, sustained trading above 0.8867 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 0.8354 to 0.8752 from 0.8631 at 0.9029.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8589) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7729; (P) 1.7833; (R1) 1.7895; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.7561 would target 1.8150 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.7245. On the downside, however, break of 1.7627 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.7561 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7426) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 179.70; (P) 180.00; (R1) 180.38; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Next target is 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 178.95 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 175.67 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 169.00) holds, even in case of deep pullback.