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Gold price fell to one-week low on Monday after bulls repeatedly failed on approach to pivotal barrier at $3349 (50% retracement of $3452/$3246 bear-leg / daily Kijun-sen), with stronger dollar on risk aversion adding pressure on metal’s price.

Fresh weakness cracked psychological $3300 level, but bears were unable to clearly break lower, that keeps key support at $3282 (daily Ichimoku cloud top) intact for now.

Subsequent bounce (still limited) adds to potential scenario of rejection at $3300 and formation of bear-trap pattern that would open way for stronger recovery, although more work at the upside (lift and close above $3325 broken Fibo level) will be required to confirm scenario.

Caution on still predominantly bearish daily studies (negative momentum, 10/20/30 MA’s in bearish setup) that may keep the downside vulnerable while the price stays below $3325.

Look for initial bullish signal on break above $3325, with lift above $3350 to confirm, while break through $3360/65 (July 2/3 double-top) to bring bulls fully in play.

On the other hand, loss of $3300 handle would weaken near-term structure, but penetration into daily cloud would signal that bears regained control and risk retest of key $3250 support zone.

Res: 3325; 3345; 3353; 3365.
Sup: 3300; 3286; 3282; 3270.

Stock markets reopened after a prolonged holiday weekend with no major headlines disrupting the recent streak of red-hot bullish sentiment.

US President Trump is expected to begin sending formal letters to international counterparts, outlining his administration’s 10% tariff plans—or potentially higher—alongside trade deals that have been in development since the early months of his mandate.

Elsewhere, China has moved to restrict EU healthcare device imports, though this has done little to dent global market confidence, with most major indices trading in the green to start the week.

In the FX space, volatility may pick up ahead of interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with both central banks under increased scrutiny amid diverging global monetary paths.

The US open is mixed, with indices hesitating as key technical levels come into play. Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now within 0.5% of its all-time highs, positioning this week as potentially pivotal for further upside momentum.

Let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the US 30 to identify potential headwinds and chart out the zones that could either cap the current rally or open the door to fresh record highs.

Dow Jones Multi-Timeframe Analysis from Daily to 30m Charts

Dow Jones Daily Chart

Dow Jones Daily Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Dow has completed a 10 day streak where buyers completely took the momentum, with prices forming a Tight Bull Channel that eventually took the index to current overbought RSI Levels.

Key 50 and 200 Day moving averages are about to form a Golden Cross which has historically been a bullish technical catalyst for buyers.

Let's take a look closer to spot if lower timeframes also point to that direction.

Dow Jones 4H Chart

Dow Jones 4H Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Prices have followed a steep upwards trendline and are still comfortably above its key Moving Averages – look at current reactions to the MA 20 acting as immediate support in confluence with the steep upward trendline that buyers will need to hold to keep their strong hand.

After a consolidation at the highs following positive NFP surprises that got slowed down by highly-overbought indications on the RSI, the lack of retracement still shows high probabilities of buyers staying strong – any break from here would require further analysis as the week develops.

The picture is however not all green with Bearish catalysts that could be at the front door: Traders should keep an eye on Fears from the infamous Trump Tariffs.

Dow Jones 30m Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Short timeframe momentum is closer to neutral after a 400 point consolidation – The 30m 50-period MA is getting flat and buyers will have to maintain above 44,670 to avoid giving up their home-court advantage.

Watch for headlines relative to tariffs to see how markets interpret what could be another key week to global sentiment.

Don't forget that asset managers have high expectations for Equity performance, and while they aren't all long indices, the trend is slowly going that way.

Markets were also trading around a theme of downplayed effect from tariffs, therefore watch for a switch in that aspect.

Dow Jones vs Nasdaq Comparison Chart

Dow Jones / Nasdaq Comparison chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq-to-Dow Jones ratio remains anchored near the 2.0 mark, with weekly convergence patterns suggesting a potential slowdown in the multi-year downtrend—possibly even setting the stage for a reversal.

The RSI remains subdued but has begun to turn upward, indicating early signs of momentum shift.

Notably, during recent low-volume sessions, we've seen preliminary signs of this trend playing out, with pre-open futures once again showing strength in the US 30 and relative weakness in the Nasdaq.

The coming weeks will be key in determining whether this rotation continues to gain traction.

Safe Trades!

Gold prices have started the week on the back foot as hopes grow over a barrage of trade deal announcements are expected this week.

The initial July 9 deadline by the Trump administration approaches but there has been mixed messaging which may limit Gold's downside potential ahead of the announcements

Federal Reserve Minutes and US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a bit of an improvement with USD demand rising slightly on tariff hopes. Positive developments on the trade deal front may help the US Dollar regain some of its shine and thus weigh on Gold prices.

Stronger Jobs data last week has also kept the US Dollar supported with markets continuing to price in a 95% probability of no rate cut at this month's FOMC meeting. Markets are still eyeing cuts this year as President Trump also ramped up his rhetoric with regard to the Fed and the lack of movement on rates.

For now though, markets are pricing in around a 67.4 percent chance of a 25bps rate cut in September. The data comes courtesy of the LSEG workspace central bank watch is still pricing in two rate cuts this year.

Source: LSEG Workspace

Middle East Tensions Rear their Head

The precious metal may find some support following renewed strikes over the weekend by the Israeli military on Yemen and Lebanon. Any indication of an uptick of geopolitical risk and markets may once again flock toward safe havens.

Trade Deal Announcements to Drive Markets this Week

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the economic calendar is rather quiet with the exception of the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday evening.

Trade deal announcements will likely be the key focus which will drive overall market sentiment and risk appetite. A short while ago we heard from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who told CNBC that “We are going to have several trade announcements in the next 48 hours”. A bold statement and one which markets hope will finally come to fruition and arrest the uncertainty that has dragged on since the start of the year.

Such a move could weigh on Gold prices especially if markets perceive the announcements as being positive. Alternatively, if the deals do not please market participants this could result in a bounce for Gold prices.

Either way trade deals will be the main driving force for volatility and market moves this week.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold is on the back foot at present with the technical picture also showing signs of the uncertainty.

Since bottoming out on June 30, Gold has broken structure on the four-hour chart hinting that bulls may have resumed control.

This was then followed up by lower highs and lower lows, which could be a sign of the uncertainty in markets at present.

Looking at the four-hour (H4) chart below, i have drawn on a fibonacci retracement with the precious metal bouncing today just shy of the golden pocket area of 61.8%.

This begs the question, are we in line for another leg higher?

Given that trade deal announcements are on the horizon it will be interesting to see how this develops over the coming days.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, July 7, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

• 3300
• 3291
• 3271

Resistance

• 3325
• 3354
• 3365

Markets

Markets are in outright waiting modus. It’s no waiting for Godot. US president Trump for sure will come up with high profile announcements on trade/tariffs vis-à-vis US trading partners as the July 9 deadline of reduced tariffs (mostly 10%) expires. As was often the case since Liberation Day, there is little visibility on what to expect. What will be announced also remains subject to tactical or other twists. The US administration will start sending letters to trading partners at noon ET today. US Treasury Secretary Bessent today also said that the US will make several announcements on trade deals in the next 48 hours. Some countries might reach a (framework) agreement before July 9. Others simply will be informed on the new tariffs the US intends to impose (from August 1). For others, a pause might be extended as US judges them to continue talks in good faith. Still, the content and detailed implementation of any (framework) deal agreed upon remains uncertain. This also applies to the sectoral tariffs and the likes of the fentanyl levy. This morning US president Trump even added a potential 10% tax levy on countries ‘aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS’. Asian equities this morning mostly opened with modest losses. European indices overcame initial weakness (EuroStoxx 50 +0.5%). Comments from the European Commission indicated that the EMU is making progress on an ‘agreement in principle’ with the US. US indices (all near record levels) are losing modestly (S&P 500 -0.4%). Is this a sign markets are expecting an orderly/acceptable outcome? For now, we would rather label it agnosticism. Bond markets resume a modest steepening move. German yields add between 2 (2-y) and 3.5 bps (30-y) The US 2-y yield trades close to unchanged, but the long end adds 3.25 bps. On FX markets, the dollar outperforms. Maybe a ‘divide-et-impera’ US trade strategy, with a different approach against individual counties is (temporarily?) seen as a negative for those currencies and a (temporary?) positive for the dollar. DXY trades near 97.4. BRICS currencies like the South-African rand, the Chinese yuan or the Indian rupee feel some pressure after the Trumps’ call on anti-US BRICS policies. However, also cyclically sensitive currencies like the Aussie (AUD/USD 0.65 from 0.656) and the kiwi dollar (USD/NZD 0.60 from 0.606) are hit hard. EUR/USD also declines from the 1.178 area to currently trade near 1.173. The yen underperforms the euro (EUR/JPY 170.7, USD/JPY 145.6). Headlines recently suggested difficult trade negotiations between the US and Japan. (Fiscal) uncertainty ahead of the July Upper House elections maybe also weighs on the yen and on Japanese LT bonds (30-y + 10 bps at 2.98%). Sterling regains some ground against the euro (EUR/GBP 86.10) after last week’s fiscal driven setback.

News & Views

Swedish inflation accelerated well beyond expectations in June. The headline number (using a fixed interest rate) printed 0.5% m/m (compared to the 0.1% consensus estimate) and resulted in a 2.9% yearly outcome. It’s sharing the February 2025 reading to be the fastest since January 2024. The measure excluding energy hit a similar 1.5 year high at 0.7% m/m and 3.3% y/y (from 2.5% in May). Today’s print caught markets off guard. Money markets were expecting another rate cut by the Swedish central bank (Riksbank) amid weakening data lately, including a lower-than-expected May CPI, rising unemployment and poor retail sales. The Riksbank itself left the door ajar by saying in its statement that “The forecast for the policy rate entails some probability of another cut this year.” Investors are now no longer certain of that to happen, offering the Swedish currency a boost today. EUR/SEK retreats from 11.26 to 11.16. Swap yields jump up to 8 bps at the front end of the curve.

The UK government through a spokesman for prime minister Starmer refused to rule out a wealth tax during a reporters briefing today. UK Chancellor Reeves is facing a shortfall of up to £30bn going into the October Budget over a series of U-turns in policy, including last week’s one in the welfare bill that wiped out £5bn in expected savings. Reeves prior to the 2024 general elections ruled out such a tax but is facing growing calls from Labour backbenchers.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1759; (P) 1.1775; (R1) 1.1796; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook as consolidation continues below 1.1829. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Downside should be contained by 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3626; (P) 1.3654; (R1) 1.3672; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook as consolidations continue below 1.3787. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 1.3369 support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3787 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2985) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7920; (P) 0.7940; (R1) 0.7958; More….

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.7871 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.7313 next.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.11; (P) 144.56; (R1) 144.92; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 142.66 extended higher today, but it's still bounded inside range of 142.66/148.01. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 148.01 resistance will resume the rise from 139.87 to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. However, break of 142.66 will bring deeper fall back to retest 139.87 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3575; (P) 1.3596; (R1) 1.3625; More...

USD/CAD's breach of 1.3666 resistance suggests that fall from 1.3797 has completed at 1.3555. Corrective pattern from 1.3538 is in the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3797 resistance and possibly above. On the downside, firm break of 1.3538/55 support zone will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.4791.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.