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Trading at ~$71.37, WTI has fallen by over 2.30% in today’s session, undoing previous gains made in the Asian session.

WTI (WTICOUSD): Key Takeaways

• Rallying to 5-month highs of ~$76.29 on Friday, WTI has retraced in today’s session, but still remains on pace for its best monthly performance since February 2021.
• Owing to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, fears of supply disruption surrounding the conflict have boosted crude oil pricing, with recent developments suggesting President Trump will help broker a deal between the two nations.
• Following the initial surge in pricing, comparative easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has allowed crude oil pricing to fall, most notably in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains business as usual

WTI (WTICOUSD): Geopolitical tensions boost supply risk premium, crude oil rallies

Rallying more than 10% on Friday, news of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, and subsequent retaliation, remains the most significant and immediate driver of crude oil pricing.

With the Middle East renowned for both global oil production and transit, recent conflict poses a significant risk to international supply, with at least one outcome being a sharp rally in oil prices.

WTICOUSD,OANDA,TradingView, 16/06/2025

While market speculation and general uncertainty ran wild late last week, recent developments, courtesy of 47th US President Donald Trump, would suggest some potential for a de-escalation in tensions.

@realDonalTrump, TruthSocial, 13/06/2025

Making reference to previous successes in brokering deals, albeit self-proclaimed, via a TruthSocial post, a general air of comparative optimism surrounds current conflicts, with oil pricing cooling from highs in today’s session.

Trump also commented further over the weekend, encouraging negotiations between the two nations.

With the recent rally underpinned by a risk to supply, a key development is that the Strait of Hormuz, part of Iran’s territorial waters, remains open as usual, helping pacify market fears. Some worry it could be obstructed, or even completely closed, amid an escalation in the current conflict.

In somewhat typical market fashion, geopolitical factors often introduce immediate volatility, but sustained price levels, either higher or lower, require actual change to market fundamentals to stick the landing.

Either way, the next few days remain crucial for ongoing negotiations and by extension, crude oil pricing.

The euphoric mood in markets has not failed to surprise any players as we approach the upcoming G7 meeting.

Index futures complete their contango transition from the June to the September contracts.

For a quick reminder, a contango happens when futures pricing is above spot pricing, the more typical pricing for futures, as markets always price a time premium. This is considered positive, as markets have been trending upwards in the past 18 years.

However, the roll of futures contracts is far from the only component allowing Equities to rise: Iran's freshly announced demands for a ceasefire with Israel are taken as a optimistic development to what could have been a much more chaotic conflict;

The US hasn't even had to step in, allowing market fears to reverse sharply: All US Equity indices are trading above +1.2% on the day

The Nasdaq is once again leading gains, up 1.35% as we speak, as prices are overlapping last Thursday's highs before the risk-off sharp fall.

Let's take a look at what that infers for technical signals going into the Wednesday 18th FOMC meeting.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Daily charts are showing further consolidation around and below 1.5% from the January 2025 all-time highs (22,241) – Even with the Daily RSI just hovering around overbought conditions, supported by its Moving Average 20.

The current daily candle is a bullish engulfing candle as markets erase the end-of-week correction, though prices will have to rally further to break last Wednesday post-CPI highs of 22,074.

One thing to note is that a further rise in the Index would create a Daily Golden Cross as the MA 50 gets closer to cross above the MA 200 – A typically bullish signs for Markets.

One fundamental hurdle to this outcome is a potential slowdown from buyers as key players prepare their position books for the important FOMC meeting where Summary of Economic Projections are released – the Federal Reserve's economic forecast.

Nasdaq 100 4H Chart

Nasdaq 100 4H Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Last Thursday and Friday moves now only look like a technical healthy retracement with prices now rebounding sharply on the 4H MA 20 and 50.

Buyers will have to keep rallying towards the 22,000 psychological level – less than 50 points away. The RSI is rising and still has space before the move gets overbought.

One other fundamental hurdle is potential hawkish talk from the Bank of Japan in tonight's Rate Decision which would slow down Carry trades, which are so beneficial to US Equities.

Technical hurdles are thin though we will spot them with more details in the 1H chart right after.

Nasdaq 100 1H Chart

Nasdaq 100 1H Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq is smashing through last Thursday highs of 21,957 with the up-move stalling slowly as the RSI indicates overbought conditions.

Look at 21,930 for the low of the immediate pivot/resistance zone where we are currently trading.

Key 1H moving averages are all around the same spot 200 points below and may act as a magnet for consolidation as buyers may take their foot of the pedal ahead of key Central Bank rate decisions. The MAs are at a confluence with the immediate support zone between 21,700 and 21,730.

One other component to such a sharp reversal is a quick accumulation of short positioning as market fears create added volatility – The unwinding of such positions create strong reversal candles such as the consecutive bull candles since the Sunday gap down open.

The next key resistance except for the one prices are trading in right now is the post-CPI highs mentioned earlier – a break of the 21,074 and consolidation above would point towards the All-Time High resistance zone around 22,000.

Safe Trades!

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of BTCUSD published in members area of the website. As our members know Bitcoin has given us 3 waves pull back recently that found buyers right at the equal legs area. We have been favoring the long side due to impulsive bullish sequences the crypto is showing. In further text we’re going to explain the short term Elliott Wave forecast.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 06.13.2025

Current view suggests Bitcoin ended cycle from the 100,547 low as wave 1 red. We got 5 waves up in the rally from the mentioned low. Currently the crypto is doing intraday pull back , wave 2 red. The correction has reached the extreme zone, but it still appears incomplete at this time. We may see further short-term weakness within the highlighted area. We expect buyers to appear in the 104,499–102,044 zone, leading to a potential rally toward new highs or at least a 3-wave bounce.

Did you know ? 90% of traders fail because they don’t understand market patterns. Are you in the top 10%? Test yourself with this advanced Elliott Wave Test

Note: Keep in mind not every chart is trading recommendation. Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 06.16.2025

BTCUSD found buyers at the marked equal legs area as expected and we got good reaction from there. We count pull back completed at 102,848 low. We don’t recommend selling in any proposed pull back. The price should ideally hold above 102,848 low to keep proposed view intact. We would like to see break above 1 red peak 110,607 to confirm next leg up is in progress. Bitcoin is ideally targeting 112,794 area next.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time.  You can check most recent charts with target levels in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

USDCHF: ⬆️ Buy

• USDCHF reversed from key support level 0.8055
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8185

USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8055, which stopped the previous impulse wave (1) at the end of April.

The support zone near the support level 0.8055 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the oversold daily Stochastic, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8185 (former support from May and the start of June).

USDJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• USDJPY reversed from the support zone
•  Likely to rise to the resistance level 146.00

USDJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone surrounding the pivotal support level 142.50, which has been reversing the price from the start of August.

The upward reversal from the support level 142.50 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.

USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 146.00 (top of the previous correction 2 from last month).

Ethereum: ⬆️ Buy

• Ethereum moving inside sideways price range
• Likely to rise to the resistance level 2754.00

Ethereum cryptocurrency recently reversed up from the support zone between the support level 2435,00 (lower border of the active narrow sideways price range from May), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.

The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from last month.

Ethereum can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 2754.00 (upper border of the active sideways price range).

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of AUDUSD. In which, the rally from 08 April 2025 low is unfolding as corrective sequence but showed a higher high sequence therefore, called for an extension higher to take place. We knew that the structure in AUDUSD should remain supported & extend higher. So, we advised members not to sell the pair & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

AUDUSD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 6.13.2025

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 6.13.2025 NY update. In which, the rally to $0.6545 high completed wave 1 & made a pullback in wave 2. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag correction where wave ((a)) ended at $0.6474 low. Then a rally to $0.6533 high-ended wave ((b)) bounce. Then started the next leg lower in wave ((c)) towards $0.6461- $0.6417 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

AUDUSD Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 6.16.2025

This is the latest 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 6.16.2025 London update. In which the pair is showing a strong reaction higher taking place, right after ending the correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. However, a break above $0.6545 high is needed to confirm the next extension higher & avoid double correction lower.

WTI oil price fell over 6% until early US session on Monday, as traders collected profits from last week’s almost 13% rally.

Oil was lifted by easing trade tensions between US and China that boosted expectations of stronger economic growth and subsequent rise in demand and escalation of Israel-Iran conflict which fueled fears of spreading conflict through sensitive Middle East region.

However, strong bullish sentiment faded after heavy exchange of fire between two countries over the weekend did not damage any significant oil installation, prompting market participants to change direction on fact that there were no immediate threats on oil supply.

Technical picture on daily chart shows bullish momentum weakening and stochastic reversing just under the border of overbought zone but remains overall bullish for now.

The pullback that came after strong upside rejection on Friday, broke below Fibo 23.6% of $55.40/$77.62 upleg ($72.38), and cracked the first of three pivotal supports ($70.00/$69.13/$68.49 – psychological / Fibo 38.2% / 200DMA).

Firm break of this zone would weaken near-term structure and open way for deeper correction.

On the other hand, geopolitical situation, as key oil driver nowadays, remains overheated, with fears that closure of Strait Hormuz by Iran could strongly inflate oil prices.

Res: 71.42; 72.02; 72.79; 74.36
Sup: 69.13; 68.45; 66.50; 65.99

If you read the news and don’t look at the prices, it’s hard to imagine a more bullish background for oil, but its quotes, although at their highest levels since March, still lost more than 1% on Monday compared to Friday’s close and are 3.5% below the level at the opening of trading on Monday.

Israel has started targeting Iran’s oil and gas facilities. In Iran, threats of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 30% of the world’s LNG and 20% of oil passes, are becoming increasingly vocal.

However, this news was not enough to break Friday’s highs of $76.3 per barrel of Brent. The price is drifting downwards towards the lower boundary of consolidation in the second half of Friday at $72.5. This is still 10% higher than last week’s starting levels, but hardly impressive.

By comparison, oil plummeted 22% from around $75 in response to Trump’s April announcement of global tariffs, which did not directly affect oil.

The market is in no hurry to translate fears into a risk premium. This is probably due to the greater influence of macroeconomics on prices, as commodity exporters in recent years have preferred not to use energy as a weapon, as was the case in the 1980s. On the contrary, in modern history, oil and gas have been subject to sanctions by importers.

The trend of declining drilling activity also continues in the United States. Data published on Friday by Baker Hughes showed a decrease in the number of oil rigs by 3 to 439, a new low since October 2021.

Formally, bulls can chalk up last week’s close above the 200-day moving average, which is currently at $71.50. But Monday’s sharp decline calls into question the sustainability of this trend. Most likely, the surge was caused by a short squeeze, and now large players are selling oil to retailers, taking advantage of the high-profile news background and the sharpest shift of private traders from net sellers to buyers.

The RSI technical oscillator repeated the peak levels of the last two years at 75 on a daily timeframe, which marked the peaks in oil prices.

Last week’s events pushed oil above the former strong support level that had been in place for the past three years. However, strong and rather unexpected selling pressure indicates that the bears have the advantage, as they may use the latest surge as a convenient point to sell.