Sample Category Title

The exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel continues. However, judging by the behaviour of various assets, market participants do not appear to expect further escalation:

→ Oil prices are falling. Monday’s candlestick on the XBR/USD chart closed significantly below the opening level.

→ Safe-haven assets are also retreating: the Swiss franc weakened during Monday’s U.S. session, while a bearish candle formed on the daily XAU/USD chart.

Equity markets, too, have largely held their ground.

The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) climbed on Monday (A→B) following reports of potential talks between Iran and the U.S. However, it pulled back (B→C) after the U.S. President urged citizens to evacuate Tehran.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart

News of Israeli strikes on targets inside Iran led to a bearish breakout from the rising channel (marked with a red arrow), though the downward move failed to gain traction.

At present, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the formation of an ascending triangle — a signal of temporary balance between supply and demand.

Still, given the elevated geopolitical uncertainty, this balance remains fragile. It could be disrupted by:

→ Further developments in the Iran–Israel conflict (notably, Donald Trump left the G7 summit early due to the situation in the Middle East);

→ U.S. retail sales data, due today at 15:30 GMT+3.

It is possible that the S&P 500 may soon attempt to break out of the triangle, potentially triggering a new directional trend.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual climb, reaching 1.1562 on Tuesday despite local support for the US dollar stemming from renewed geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitics and Fed expectations in focus

The greenback experienced a temporary surge in demand as tensions escalated in the Middle East, prompting a rise in safe-haven assets. This followed US President Donald Trump’s call for the complete evacuation of Tehran and renewed pressure on Iran to accept his nuclear deal proposal.

Meanwhile, market attention has now shifted to the Federal Reserve meeting, which begins today and concludes on Wednesday evening. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors are seeking fresh forward guidance, especially given the recent softening of expectations for future rate cuts.

Persistent inflation concerns, driven by elevated oil prices and lingering uncertainty in the trade sector, are further shaping sentiment.

Today’s key macroeconomic releases include US retail sales and industrial production figures for May, while in the eurozone, the focus is on the ZEW economic expectations index for June.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range at the top of the upward trend. A possible expansion towards 1.1645 cannot be excluded. Subsequently, a decline towards the lower boundary of the range at 1.1490 is anticipated. A break below 1.1490 would open the path for a new downward wave towards 1.1275, which is the first main target. The MACD indicator supports this outlook – its signal line remains above zero but has exited the histogram zone and is expected to descend back to the zero line, confirming a weakening upward impulse.

On the H1 chart, the market is consolidating around the 1.1570 level. The local growth target at 1.1614 has already been fulfilled, followed by a technical retest of 1.1542 from above. The next expected move is a growth link to 1.1645. A broad consolidation range around 1.1570 continues to take shape. The main scenario anticipates a decline towards 1.1456 once the growth structure is complete. This view is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and heading sharply towards 80, indicating room for further short-term upside before a reversal.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains supported in the short term amid geopolitical uncertainty and softening Fed rate expectations, with key resistance at 1.1645 and support at 1.1490 and 1.1456. A sustained break below these levels could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.1275. For now, technical signals indicate a continuation of the consolidation phase, with one more upward impulse likely before a reversal sets in.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1517; (P) 1.1566; (R1) 1.1608; More...

EUR/USD is staying in consolidations below 1.1630 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1372 support holds. Break of 1.1572 will extend the rally from 1.0176. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, break of 1.1372 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.00; (P) 144.44; (R1) 145.23; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as sideway trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 142.10 support will resume the fall from 148.64 to retest 139.87 low. On the upside, above 145.46 will turn bias to the upside for 146.27 first. Firm break there will target 148.64 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3534; (P) 1.3578; (R1) 1.3621; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral, and further rally is expected as long as 1.3455 support holds. Break of 1.3631 will resume the rise from 1.2099 and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. On the downside, break of 1.3455 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3320) instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2937) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8103; (P) 0.8125; (R1) 0.8161; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.8247 resistance will argue that corrective pattern from 0.8038 is starting the third leg. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8475 resistance again. However, firm break of 0.8038 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8656) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6477; (P) 0.6514; (R1) 0.6562; More...

Breach of 0.6545 temporary top suggest that AUD/USD's rally from 0.5913 is resuming. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 0.6713 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.6455 support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still struggling to sustain above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) cleanly, and outlook is mixed. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA will indicate that rise from 0.5913 is at least correcting the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high), with risk of trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713. However, rejection by 55 W EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.5913 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3538; (P) 1.3573; (R1) 1.3605; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.4791 is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3349. On the upside, break of 1.3650 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9369; (P) 0.9395; (R1) 0.9436; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the upside, break of 0.9428 will resume the rebound from 0.9218 through 0.9445 resistance. However, break of 0.9291 will bring retest of 0.9218 instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9527) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8497; (P) 0.8515; (R1) 0.8531; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidations below 0.6545 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8416 support holds. Above 0.8545 will target for 61.8% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8591. Firm break there will pave the way to 0.8373 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.