Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1055; (P) 1.1073; (R1) 1.1085; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1056 is in progress. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited below 1.1264 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1056 will extend the larger down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1476 at 1.0962 next.

In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it's likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF could target 1.0629 support and below.

Pivot (invalidation): 16.2500

Our preference Long positions above 16.2500 with targets at 16.6300 & 16.7800 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 16.2500 look for further downside with 16.1000 & 15.9400 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.

Pivot (invalidation): 1434.00

Our preference Long positions above 1434.00 with targets at 1453.00 & 1461.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1434.00 look for further downside with 1428.00 & 1422.00 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Pivot (invalidation): 2979.50

Our preference Long positions above 2979.50 with targets at 3008.00 & 3015.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 2979.50 look for further downside with 2973.00 & 2958.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.

Pivot (invalidation): 12295.00

Our preference Short positions below 12295.00 with targets at 12160.00 & 12100.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 12295.00 look for further upside with 12340.00 & 12400.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1228; (P) 1.1254; (R1) 1.1303; More...

EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.1193/1285 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.1193 will resume the fall from 1.1412 to retest 1.1107 low. On the upside, above 1.1285 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1412 resistance.

In the bigger picture, bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD suggests that 1.1107 is a medium term bottom. However, rejection by 55 EMA retains medium term bearish. Outlook will be neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

Asian stocks are taking their cues from their US counterparts to push higher, after Fed officials appeared to call for US monetary policy stimulus in the near-term.On Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, President, John Williams, said that central banks must “take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions”.Also, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida, said yesterday that policymakers “don’t need to wait until things get so bad” before cutting interest rates.

Safe haven assets have been boosted by risk appetite that is being curtailed by the thought of waning US economic growth. The Yen has strengthened below the 107.6 level against the US Dollar, Gold prices briefly breached the $1450 handle, while the yields on 10-year US Treasuries aren’t straying far away from the two percent mark. Although central banks around the world have embarked on policy easing in a bid to support their respective economies, investors are left to ponder whether the stimulus will be enough to offset the effects from heightened US-China trade tensions which have already dragged global growth lower.

Dovish Fed makes for softer-Dollar environment for the rest of July

The dovish commentary by Fed officials underscored expectations that the US central bank will lower interest rates by a larger quantum at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. At the time of writing, markets now expect a 43.5 percent chance of a 50-basis point cut at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, as seen in the Fed funds futures.

Despite the better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and factory output data, the Fed is expected to press ahead with at least a 25-basis point interest rate cut this month. Given that US inflation remains muted while global uncertainties continue to prevail, lower US interest rates should help ensure that US economic growth momentum remains steadfast. However, ramped-up expectations over a bigger July Fed rate cut are undermining the Greenback, and arelikely to contribute to a softer-Dollar environment for the rest of this month. The weaker Dollar is set to play into the hands of Gold and Yen bulls.

Oil tumbles as slowing global demand overshadows rising geopolitical tensions

WTI crude has declined by over six percent so far this week, while Brent futures have shed over five percent. US inventories increased by over nine million barrels last week, which added to market jitters that the growth in global demand is lagging severely behind the rise in output.

The slowdown in global growth has overshadowed market sentiment for Oil, as rising geopolitical tensions have failed to live up to their potential of sending prices higher. With US-China trade negotiations merely offering a pittance to risk appetite since the tariff truce was announced at the end of June, any further deterioration in the global demand outlook could open up further downside for Oil prices. Still, markets can take some comfort in the OPEC+ decision to extend its supply cuts through March 2020, which should help support Oil prices over the coming months.

Pivot (invalidation): 5.6600

Our preference Short positions below 5.6600 with targets at 5.5970 & 5.5620 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 5.6600 look for further upside with 5.6850 & 5.7090 as targets.

Comment A break below 5.5970 would trigger a drop towards 5.5620.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7050

Our preference Long positions above 0.7050 with targets at 0.7090 & 0.7105 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.7050 look for further downside with 0.7035 & 0.7025 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2464; (P) 1.2511; (R1) 1.2596; More....

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is still in favor with 1.2579 resistance intact. Sustained break of 1.2391 will resume larger down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.2154 next. Though, break of 1.2579 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 1.2783 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.