Sample Category Title

EURGBP has been in the green so far this month, fully recovering the sell-off towards the 0.85 level emerged at the end of April. The short-term risk is still positive as long as the RSI and the MACD strengthen in bullish area, yet some caution is likely needed as the Stochastics seem to be reversing lower in overbought territory (above 80).

Should the pair extend rally, immediate resistance is expected to appear within the 0.8700-0.8720 zone, where the upper Bollinger band is currently located. A steeper upside could also challenge the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which if broken could significantly increase buying orders, shifting the medium-term outlook from neutral to bullish.

In case the market proves overbought, the price could meet the middle Bollinger band at 0.8615. Breaking even lower and under the 50-day SMA, the decline may pick up steam towards the 2016 low of 0.8526 and the 0.85 round level.

In brief, EURGBP remains bullish in the short-term picture, while in the medium-term the outlook holds neutral

German-Italian yield spread widens sharply again today on fear of expansionary budget again in Italy and renewed risk of showdown with EU. The trigger was Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini's pledge yesterday, to be prepared to let budget deficit rise above EU limits if it were to boost employment.

Italian 10-year yield is currently up 0.072 at 2.807. That compares to 2.52% low this month, and 2.344 low this year.

German 10-year yield is currently down -0.041 at -0.108.

EUR/JPY finally resume recent fall by taking out 122.48 temporary low.

Notes/Observations

Asia:

• China Foreign Min says China will take countermeasures to U.S. bullying; Hopes the US can come back to the right track and reach a mutually beneficial agreement
• Earlier Foreign Min Geng had said US repeatedly tried to change the terms of the negotiations midway through the talks, going against agreement made in Dec
• China April Industrial production and Retail sales fall short of forecasts
• BoJs Kuroda to not consider additional easing now but reiterates additional easing if price momentum is lost

Europe/Mideast:

• German and Eurozone prelim GDP comes in line with forecasts
• European Stocks pare losses from earlier weakness as trade concerns continue; Bund yields reach 3 year low
• Downing street confirms Brexit vote will take place in early June

Energy:

• Cuts 2019 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3M bpd from 1.4M bpd
• IEA's Atkinson: Lower oil-demand growth outlook 'modest', no demand shock

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.10% at 375.98, FTSE +0.30% at 7,263.30, DAX -0.16% at 11,972.48, CAC-40 -0.35% at 5,322.88, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 9,109.19, FTSE MIB -0.69% at 20,748.50, SMI -0.05% at 9,399.00, S&P 500 Futures -0.01%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

Equities

• European Indices trade mainly lower across the board erasing initial gains after some risk-aversion flows coming in U.S. futures following China's Foreign Ministry comments on trade tensions.
• On the earnings front shares of Leoni trade sharply lower after disappointing earnings. Dutch-based financial giant ABN AMRO trades 2.5% lower after miss on profits. In the U.K. both Kingfisher and Aston Martin trade lower after providing Q1 figures and affirming their outlook, while Compass Group is among notable risers. Stocks of Salvatore Ferragamo traded in Italy rose as much as 10% this morning after reporting Q1 results yesterday after the close.
• Meanwhile on the corporate front shares of Commerzbank rise 2.5% and shares of Unicredit fall 1.5% on press report that Unicredit has hired advisors on potential acquisition of Commerzbank. Shares of another German bank Deutsche Bank trade lower almost 1.5% on raids in its Frankfurt office related to tax probe.
• Looking ahead, notable earners include Alibaba, Macy's, Embraer and Stars Group.
• Consumer discretionary: TUI [TUI1.DE] -1.5% (earnings), William Hill [WHM.UK] -0.5% (trading update), Aston Martin [AML.UK] -0.5% (earnings), Salvatore Ferragamo [SFER.IT] +10% (earnings)
• Consumer staples: Compass [CPG.UK] +3% (earnings)
• Energy: Schibsted [SCH.NO] -3% (earnings)
• Financials: ABN AMRO [ABN.NL] -2.5% (earnings), Experian [EXPN.UK] -0.5% (earnings; buyback program), Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] -3% (earnings), Commerzbank [CBK.DE] +2.5%, Unicredit [UCG.IT] -1.5% (merger speculation), Raiffeisen [RBI.AT] -4.5% (earnings)
• Materials: LafargeHolcim [LHN.CH] +1.5% (earnings; post earnings comments)
• Industrials: Leoni [LEO.DE] -12% (earnings), Kingfisher [KGF.UK] -2.5% (earnings)
• Technology: United Internet [UTDI.DE] -3% (earnings)
• Telecom: Eutelsat [ETL.FR] -5% (sales)

Speakers

• (CN) China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang: for some time U.S. has been abusing national power to smear Chinese companies, it is not honorable
• (DE) German Economy Ministry: German Economy grew significantly in Q1 as strong domestic economy defied turbulent global environment
• (DE) German Chemical Association (VCI): Maintains 2019 Production volumes -3.5%; Sales forecast from -2.5%
• (RU) Russia EconMin Oreshkin: Russia is one of the safest from the trade ware between the US and China
• (IT) Italy Dep PM Salvini (League): no alternative to current Italy govt; EU fiscal rules old, outdated
• (UK) UK Trade Minister Liam Fox: When faced with withdrawal agreement bill lawmakers will have to consider consequences of failing to deliver Brexit deal

Currencies/ Fixed Income

• As the risk off theme seems to have abated for now and the dollar index trading higher than the previous 3 days, the markets appear to have calmed. This with comments still being exchanged between Trump and China. Both sides continue to comment that a trade war is not in the best interest of either side.
• EUR/USD With an inline preliminary GDP figure the EUR/USD continues to trade in its range of 1.12 to 1.126 while the Bund yield continues to be negative as the future approaches the 167 handle a level that failed to be broken.
• GBP/USD The cable continued its downward trend approaching the 1.29 handle as talks on Brexit continue at a slow pace. Parliament has set the date to vote on the Brexit bill during the first week of June.
• USD/CAD with Canadian CPI due out today, the CAD continues its sideways trading between 1.34 and 1.35

Economic Data

• (EU) EURO ZONE Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.2%E
• (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Preliminary Employment Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prior
• (DE) GERMANY Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.7%
• (IT) Italy Mar Industrial Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.1% prior
• (PL) Poland Apr Final CPI M/M: 1.1% v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2% prelim
• (PL) Poland Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.4%e
• (PT) Portugal prelim Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7% prior
• (DK) Denmark Q1 GDP Indicator Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.8% prior

Fixed Income Issuance

• Norway sells NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 1.75% 2029 Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.67%; Bid-to-cover: 3.05x

Looking Ahead

• 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Trade Balance: No est v €6.3B prior
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Property Prices M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior
• 06:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 1.50%
• 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 10th: No est v 2.7% prior
• 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.3%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 1.1% prior
• 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Apr Minutes
• 08:30 (US) Apr Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 1.6% prior; Retail Sales (Ex-auto) M/M: 0.7%e v 1.2% prior; Retail Sales (Ex-auto/gas): 0.4%e v 0.9% prior; Retail Sales Control Group (used for GDP purposes): 0.3%e v 1.0% prior
• 08:30 (US) May Empire Manufacturing: 8.0e v 10.1 prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.9% prior; Consumer Price Index: 135.9e v 135.4 prior; CPI Core- Median Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.0% prior; CPI Core- Common Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior; CPI Core- Trim Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior
• 09:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Trade Balance Mar: No est v €0.3B prior
• 09:00 (CA) Canada Apr Existing Home Sales M/M: 1.8%e v 0.9% prior
• 09:15 (US) Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 78.7%e v 78.8% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior
• 10:00 (US) May NAHB Housing Market Index: 64e v 63 prior
• 10:00 (US) Mar Business Inventories: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior
• 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly Oil Inventories
• 11:30 (IL) Israel Apr CPI M/o: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior
• 12:00 (CO) Colombia Q1 GDP Q/o: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.8% prior
• 15:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Economic Activity Index (Monthly GD) Y/Y: 3.2%e v 2.7% prior
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr National CPI M/M: 4.0%e v 4.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 54.7% prior
• 16:00 (US) Mar Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v $51.9B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$21.6B prior

Chinese data shows a slowdown in the economy. Retail sales, investments in fixed assets, industrial production - all these figures significantly below expectations in April. The effect of monetary policy easing in previous months and weeks has not yet reached the economy. What is even more disturbing is that the Chinese economy may need even more stimulus.

Stocks

Key US stock indexes on Tuesday raised around 0.8%, offsetting a third of decline at the start of the week. Chinese China A50 jumped 2.5% on Wednesday, showing a more confident rebound. However, this growth, as we noted the day before, do not look steady. Futures on the S&P 500 lost a positive momentum, trading virtually unchanged from the beginning of the day. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 2.38% —minimum levels since March, reflecting increased demand for defensive assets and could turn into increased pressure on stock indexes later in the day.

EURUSD

The single currency returned to 1.1200, developing a retreat from the resistance of the downward channel and the MA50. Germany's ZEW business sentiment index unpleasantly surprised yesterday. Instead of growth, which was predicted by market analysts, the index returned to negative territory. Escalation of trade disputes has a negative effect on business sentiment in Germany, despite the fact that assessments of the current state are gradually improving. EURUSD may again be under pressure if there is an increase in demand for defensive assets in global markets, and because of this, the pair may remain within the downward channel from the beginning of the year.

Chart of the day: AUDUSD

The Australian dollar declines to 3-year lows area against the dollar. Since the middle of last month, AUDUSD has lost about 4%, increasing the decline in the downward trend. Weak data from China and the persistence of fears around trade wars fuel pressure on the Australian dollar. After 2003, AUDUSD was below 0.700 only during periods of highest fears around the state of the global and Chinese economies. A decrease to these levels can serve as an indicator of increasing tension on the part of investors, despite some rollback of stock markets. Tomorrow morning, the Australian labor market will be in the spotlight. It remains strong, and a new batch of good data may ease some of the pressure on the Aussie.

Gold is higher and it may see a push above 1300 once again as latest set-back from the highs looks like a correction so five wave can be in the cards within wave 3 for 1305.

gold, 1h

AUDJPY may not catch the bulls until AUDUSD bottoms which is now at interesting 0.6890/0.6920 zone where bears may slow down. Keep in mind that move was out from a triangle and that RSI shows a divergence so bounce may not be far away. Based on timing, I think we may see higher prices by the end of week. Hang Seng Index and SP500 may also support the Australian currency. HSI is at possible support right now.

AUDUSD, 1h

HSI vs AU200 vs AUDUSD

HSI Daily

Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% qoq in Q1, matched expectations. EU 28 GDP grew 0.5% qoq. Over the year, Eurozone GDP rose 1.2% yoy while EU28 GDP grew 1.5% yoy.

Eurozone employment grew 0.3% qoq in Q1, above expectation of 0.2% qoq. EU 28 employment all grew 0.3% qoq.

Full release here.

Attempts of Turkey's financial authorities to help weakening lira, showed limited positive reaction for the currency so far.

Last week's intervention slowed lira's fall, but subsequent weakness signals that the action would be likely short-lived.

Sharp USDTRY's fall after intervention (the pair was down 3.4% in immediate reaction) was contained by rising 20SMA and following recovery, which left series of higher lows and tracked by ascending 20SMA, diminish hopes of stronger lira's recovery.

Rising uncertainty over political turmoil after elections in Turkey adds to lira's negative sentiment, prompting investors into foreign currencies that further pressures lira.

Recovery from post-intervention low at 5.9378 spiked to Fibo 61.8% retracement of 6.2445/5.9378 and looks for bullish signal on repeated close above Fibo 38.2% at 6.0550.

Weaker momentum on daily chart warns that the price may hold in extended consolidation but bias is expected to remain with bulls while 20SMA keeps the downside protected.

Bulls look for weekly close above cracked Fibo barrier at 5.1198 (50% retracement of 7.1074/5.1323 correction) to generate fresh signal for continuation.

Regain of last week's peak at 6.2445 would expose next key barrier at 6.3529 (Fibo 61.8% of 7.1074/5.1323).

Res: 6.0912, 6.1274, 6.2018, 6.2445
Sup: 6.0211, 6.0000, 5.9758, 5.9378

Markets stable as Trump reassures Wall Street

The markets are looking a little flat on Wednesday, with investors soothed by the calming words of Donald Trump who sought to reassure us all that the trade war with China is merely a little squabble.

After freaking out at the beginning of the week, investors have quickly settled down and, it would appear, decided hope is more preferable than reality. Over the last week we've had more tariffs imposed between the world's two largest economies and this morning Chinese data has seriously disappointed and yet, investors are calm.

It's hard not to think that Trump had an eye on Wall Street when he made the latest comments on China, with those previously that contributed to the decline, having been far harsher. Still, those soothing tones appear to have worked for now, the only question is how long it will last.

Already Trump has sought to divert attention to the central bank once again, claiming that if they only cut interest rates, the trade war would be won. That of course is not the job of the central bank and a prime example of why it is independent but it will be a convenient target should the economy take a turn and the trade war drag on into 2020 when the President has an election to contend with.

Oil prices lower as we await more inventory data

Oil prices are a little lower heading into the US session as we await more inventory data from EIA. API reported another large inventory increase on Tuesday, which failed to generate too much of a response but may weigh on prices going forward if backed up by the report today.

Lower output from OPEC in April, led by a reduction in Iranian exports, will continue to offer the bullish case for oil as the cartel seeks to reduce the overstock and raise prices to a more sustainable level. Of course, falls in Iranian output is being driven by US sanctions, rather than being part of the output deal but as long as the outcome is the same, the Saudi's and others won't be incentivised to jump in.

Is bitcoin still the wild west?

Bitcoin prices are looking a little steadier today as the initial hype around the breakout fades. Still, prices are up more than 25% since the end of last week and, in the absence of further gains, the test will now will to keep hold of as much of this as possible to prove this was no flash spike without substance.

Regardless, it is a stark reminder of the kind of trading we saw 18 months ago, which lulled people into a false sense of security, a belief that there was lots of easy money to be made. This myth was crushed at the start of last year when it quickly became apparent that these wild moves can go in either direction and there's no such thing as easy money.

Whatever happens, it could be an interesting couple of days or weeks in the space as we see just how much it has matured over the last 18 months, or whether it is in fact just history about to repeat itself.

Gold bulls feeling more confident

Gold continues to hover around $1,300 and the recovery in investor sentiment since Monday took some of the shine off the rally. With risk appetite in the markets still uncertain and investors potentially feeling a little vulnerable following Monday's moves – not to mention the prospect for more tariffs – gold bulls may be feeling a little happier than they were a week or so ago.

Wednesday May 15: Five things the markets are talking about

Global stocks are struggling to maintain Tuesdays gains as U.S futures have pared some of their earlier overnight advances, while Euro stocks have edged lower. In Asia, China led equity gains overnight despite weaker data (industrial production, retail sales) on investor bets that authorities would increase stimulus.

The ‘big’ dollar continues to tick higher but remains confined to another tight range, while sovereign bond yields trade atop of their two-month lows on the breakdown of Sino-U.S trade negotiations. Nevertheless, financial markets remain on edge as the White House announced it was preparing tariffs on the remaining +$300B of Chinese imports.

Elsewhere, in commodities, oil has pared some of its recent gains on reports that growth in U.S crude stocks is easing market concerns over tighter supplies worries after a drone attack in Saudi Arabia had highlighted the defencelessness of the country’s energy infrastructure.

Heightened intraday volatility is expected at least until Trump meets his counterpart, Xi Jinping, at next month’s G-20 summit.

On tap: Canadian CPI and U.S retails sales are due out at 08:30 am EDT. Down-under, Aussie unemployment numbers are due later this evening.

1. Stocks, a mixed bag

In Japan, the Nikkei ended higher overnight in another whippy session, breaking a seven-day losing streak, on market hopes that China would introduce fresh stimulus to support a slowing economy. The Nikkei share average ended +0.6% higher, while the broader Topix, which hit a four-month low on Tuesday, rallied +0.6%.

Note: Data overnight showed that China retail sales slumped to the lowest since 2003 in April. Sales grew +7.2% y/y, missing forecasts of an +8.6% gain, and a marked slowdown from March’s +8.7%. Also, Industrial production rose just +5.4% y/y after March’s spurt to +8.5%.

Down-under, Aussie shares rebounded overnight on expectations that RBA interest rates may be cut while a fall in the AUD boosted miners. Expectations of a rate cut increased after domestic wage growth stalled in Q1. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose +0.7% at the close of trade. The benchmark fell -0.9% on Tuesday. In S. Korea, the Kospi gained +0.6%.

In China, stock benchmarks rebounded roughly +2%, lifted by consumer shares, as weak industrial output and retail sales data reinforced expectations of fresh stimulus, while a slight softening in rhetoric from Trump also helped to ease trade tensions. China’s blue-chip CSI300 index rose +2.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained +1.9%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index ended up +0.5%, while the China Enterprises Index gained +0.4%.

In Europe, regional bourses trade mainly lower across the board erasing initial gains after some risk-aversion flows coming in U.S futures following China’s Foreign Ministry comments on trade tensions.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘black’ (+0.0%).

Indices: Stoxx600 -0.10% at 375.98, FTSE +0.30% at 7,263.30, DAX -0.16% at 11,972.48, CAC-40 -0.35% at 5,322.88, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 9,109.19, FTSE MIB -0.69% at 20,748.50, SMI -0.05% at 9,399.00, S&P 500 Futures -0.01%

2. Oil prices fall as U.S stockpiles rise, but ME tensions support pullbacks

Oil prices are under pressure after U.S data showed a surprise rise in crude stockpiles and as Chinese industrial output grew less than expected in April. However, deeper pullbacks are well supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures are at +$71.06 a barrel, down -18c, or -0.3%, from Tuesday’s close. Brent ended +1.4% higher in yesterday’s session. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are at +$61.33 per barrel, down -45c, or -0.7%. WTI closed up +1.2% in the previous session.

Data from the API yesterday showed that U.S crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Crude inventories climbed by +8.6M barrels in the week to May 10 to +477.8M, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of -800K barrels.

Note: Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by +2.1M barrels.

Expect dealers to take direction from today’s U.S Energy Department’s EIA report (10:30 EDT).

Oil prices have found support on deeper pullbacks after Saudi Arabia indicated yesterday that armed drones struck two of its oil pumping stations, two days after the sabotage of oil tankers near the UAE. The U.S remains on alert of “possibly imminent threats to U.S forces in Iraq” from Iran-backed forces.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices have steadied, retreated from their four-week high print Tuesday on investor optimism surrounding Sino-U.S trade. Spot gold is steady at +$1,296.49 an ounce, while U.S gold futures have edged +0.1% higher to +$1,297.20 an ounce.

3. German Bund Yield Slips to three-year lows

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has fallen to its lowest level since October 2016 as a combination of weak Chinese data, Sino-U.S trade tensions, and anti-austerity rhetoric from the Italian government is supporting a safe-haven bid in bonds. Germany’s 10-year yield was last down -2.5 BPS to -0.098%.

Unlike Italian government bond yields, which have surged again this morning as anti-austerity movements gain in Southern Europe, stoking concerns about high spending. Yesterday, deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said that Rome was ready to break EU fiscal rules. Two-year BTP yields jumped nearly +8 bps to +0.8%, the highest since December 2018.

Elsewhere, the yield on U.S 10-year Treasuries fell -1 bps to +2.40%, the lowest in almost seven weeks, while in the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has dipped -3 bps to +1.078%, the lowest in six weeks.

4. Dollar stuck in a contained vortex

Markets risk-off demise has eased a tad this morning with the ‘big’ dollar index trading a tad higher than the previous three-sessions.

EUR/USD (€1.1206) with an inline preliminary German GDP number (see below), the single unit continues to trade in its range of €1.12 to €1.126 while the Bund yield continues to be negative and trades atop of its three-year low yield.

GBP/USD (£1.2911) remains in a downward spiral as talks on Brexit continue at a slow pace. Parliament has set the date to vote on the Brexit bill during the first week of June.

USD/CAD (C$1.3473) with Canadian CPI due out today (08:30 am EDT), the CAD continues its sideways trading between C$1.34 and C$1.35 and this despite last Friday’s “unbelievable” Canadian employment numbers.

Turkey has raised to +0.1% from zero a tax on some foreign exchange sales, marking the country’s latest policy change to discourage a months-long trend of Turks selling the beleaguered TRY for more stable USD and EUR. The move comes after intervention by state banks that have spent billions of dollars in foreign markets to support the lira. TRY has weakened to $6.0670 outright, on market worries of possible U.S sanctions over a Turkish plan to buy a Russian S-400 missile defence system.

5. German Economy Rebounds

Data this morning showed that the German economy rebounded in Q1 after narrowly avoiding recession in Q4, 2018.

Europe’s largest economy expanded +0.4% in Q1, driven by robust private consumption and domestic construction according to the national statistics agency Destatis.

German business executives remain cautious, however, suggesting that any recovery could be short-lived. German exports faces renewed headwinds from Sino-U.S trade tensions and ongoing uncertainty around the U.K’s Brexit departure from the EU.

Note: In the crucial auto sector, Continental AG, Daimler AG, Volkswagen AG and BMW AG all posted sharply lower Q1 earnings.

The latest escalation of the U.S-China trade battle “has created a fresh downturn in sentiment among German engineering companies.”

The US dollar is strengthening against the basket of major currencies amid good news regarding trade relations between the US and China. US President Donald Trump announced that he was ready to sign a trade agreement with China. The President said on his Twitter that the United States would make an agreement with China when the time was right, and also emphasized friendly relations with the President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping. At the same time, Trump said that there were still minor differences between countries. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the positive zone (+0.19%).

Yesterday, important economic statistics from the UK and the Eurozone were also published. The British pound weakened against the US dollar amid weak labor market data. Thus, the average earnings, including bonuses, increased by only 3.2% in April, while experts expected growth by 3.4%. Initial jobless claims rose by 24.7K, which turned out to be higher than the forecasted value of 24.2K. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8% in March. German ZEW economic sentiment fell by 2.1 in May, although experts expected growth by 5.1.

The euro weakened against the dollar after Deputy Prime Minister of Italy announced that the country was ready to break the European Union's budget rules on debt levels if necessary. Matteo Salvini, Deputy Prime Minister of Italy, said: "Until we arrive at 5% unemployment, we will spend everything that we should and if someone in Brussels complains, that won't be our concern."

Today, during the Asian trading session, weak economic data have been published in China. Thus, industrial production grew by only 5.4% in April instead of 6.5%.

The "black gold" prices show negative dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $61.10 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00) data on crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

• Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.90%), #DIA (+0.92%), #QQQ (+1.10%).
• The 10-year US government bonds yield is declining. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.39-2.40%.

The news feed on 2019.05.15:

• Preliminary data on Eurozone GDP at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
• Statistics on US retail sales at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
• Inflation Report in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).