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Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.3120 resistance.
• It cleared the 1.3150 zone and retested the 1.3200 resistance on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD is consolidating gains above the 1.1280 support zone.
• Gold prices traded to a new record high above $3,240 and started a consolidation phase.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound remained supported above 1.2880 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started a fresh surge above the 1.3000 and 1.3050 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared the 1.3150 zone and retested the 1.3200 resistance. There was a close above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

A high was formed at 1.3201 and is currently consolidating gains. If there is a fresh increase, the pair could face resistance near the 1.3220 level.

The next major resistance is near the 1.3250 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.3320 zone. A close above the 1.3320 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.3450 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.3140 level. The next key support sits near the 1.3080 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2708 swing low to the 1.3201 high. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.3015 level.

Looking at Gold, the price started a fresh increase, and the bulls might soon aim for a move toward the $3,300 level.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• UK Claimant Count Change for March 2025 – Forecast 30.3K, versus 44.2K previous.
• UK ILO Unemployment Rate for Feb 2025 (3M) – Forecast 4.4%, versus 4.4% previous.

In a speech overnight, Fed Governor Christopher Waller laid out two divergent scenarios for US tariff policy and their economic fallout.

The first scenario assumes high tariffs, near average 25% or more, and remain in place for an extended period. This reflects a structural shift toward domestic production and reduced trade dependence. The second scenario envisions a negotiated reduction in foreign trade barriers, which would lower the average tariff rate back to around 10%, closer to the levels anticipated earlier this year.

Waller warned that if the "high-tariff" regime holds, the US economy is likely to "slow to a crawl" with inflation rising to around 4% before retreating in 2026, assuming inflation expectations remain anchored. In this scenario, the unemployment rate could climb toward 5% next year as business investment weakens under higher costs and persistent uncertainty.

In contrast, if the current pause in reciprocal tariffs leads to meaningful progress in trade negotiations and the easing of barriers, Waller expects a milder economic impact. Under this "smaller tariff" path, the economy would continue to grow—albeit at a slower pace—while inflation would likely stay on a downward trend toward Fed’s 2% target. In such a case, he said, rate cuts could be warranted later this year as a “good news” policy move.

Full speech of Fed's Waller here.

NZDUSD ⬆️ Buy

• NZDUSD broke resistance zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5930

NZDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.5800 (which has been reversing the price from March) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from September.

The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (1). Given the continuation of the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.5930, former top of wave ii from November.

AUDCAD ⬆️ Buy

• AUDCAD reversed from the support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8860

AUDCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone located at the intersection of the long-term support level 0.8600 (which started two weekly uptrends from 2022) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support area created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone, AUDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8860, the former strong support from January.

• Gold prices saw a retreat from recent highs due to improved market sentiment and tariff exemptions, but Goldman Sachs has increased its gold price forecast for the end of 2025.
• Technical analysis indicates a potential for further price movement, with a focus on the 3250 handle and support at 3195 on the H1 timeframe.
• Period-14 RSI has left overbought territory. Has momentum shifted?

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report “Gold (XAU/USD) price update: Bulls in charge as Trump hits tariff pause. $3150/oz up next?” published on 5 February 2025.

Gold prices have seen a retreat from the fresh highs printed in the Asian session dropping to a low of 3193 following the US open. Improved market sentiment across the board to start the week on the back of tariff exemptions on tech products from China.

Over the weekend there were also comments from Commerce Secretary Lutnick about how many countries are already ‘negotiating’ with the US. These were seen as positive developments helping overall sentiment and seeing a temporary pause in haven demand.

Goldman Sachs increased its forecast for gold prices by the end of 2025 to $3,700 per ounce, up from $3,300. They expect prices to range between $3,650 and $3,950, driven by higher demand from central banks and increased investments in gold-backed funds due to recession concerns. The bank also noted that if a recession happens, more money could flow into these funds, pushing gold prices to $3,880 per ounce by year-end.

Gold prices should remain supported however with any pullback likely to remain shallow in nature. The macro risks remain in play and until clarity on how much tariffs will be implemented, it looks like a bumpy road ahead. Volatility is likely to remain elevated and price swings are to become normality.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical analysis standpoint, Gold prices have retreated from the fresh all-time highs printed in the Asian session.

Looking at the four-hour chart below and the parabolic move from the April 9 lows does leave room for a retracement.

The period-14 RSI has crossed back below the 70 overbought level, which is usually a sign that momentum may be shifting.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, April 14, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Dropping down to a one-hour H1 timeframe, and you can see that gold has formed higher low at 3195 support.

This would suggest a fresh high may be incoming with the 3250 handle now in focus.

However a H1 candle close below the support level at 3195 and a swift drop toward 3167 could come to fruition.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, April 14, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

• 3195
• 3167
• 3150

Resistance

• 3125
• 3145
• 3175

Before trading any yen cross, always analyze the JPY separately as a haven and compare it with the index of the other currency involved. It’s essential to review each currency’s index to understand market sentiment and trade in line with the Primary Trend. For the yen, it’s useful to check the JPY Index versus the USD Index on TradingView.

The JPY Index reflects bullish sentiment, while the USD Index shows strong selling pressure. This suggests a bearish bias for the USDJPY pair. Any bullish movements for the USD will likely be short-lived unless a technical trend reversal is confirmed.

Fundamental Analysis

The Japanese yen (JPY) remains strong as a safe-haven asset amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. After Trump imposed new tariffs of 145%, China responded with 125% retaliatory tariffs. These geopolitical tensions are driving flows into the JPY, which is trading near its highest levels since September 2024. Additionally, optimism around a potential U.S.–Japan trade deal—fueled by encouraging comments from Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—further supports the yen.

On the monetary policy front, divergence is putting downward pressure on USDJPY. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a hawkish stance following March’s 4.2% wholesale inflation data and wage pressure, while the Fed is expected to cut rates by 90 basis points in 2025 due to slowing inflation and the economic impact of tariffs. With the dollar at its lowest since April 2022, the pair continues in a multi-month downtrend, with risks skewed toward further USD weakness.

Key factors to monitor include the progress of U.S.–Japan trade talks, verbal interventions by Japanese officials regarding exchange rate volatility, and U.S. inflation and employment data to adjust Fed rate cut expectations.

Technical Analysis | USDJPY, H2

• Supply Zones (Sell): 143.68, 144.55, 145.49, 146.71
• Demand Zones (Buy): 142.00, 141.00

The pair is showing intraday consolidation with a volume concentration zone at 143.08, a potential buying area. If respected as support, it could fuel a correction toward 144.00, 144.55, and extend toward the average daily bullish range at 145.49, where swing shorts may resume targeting the September support at 139.58.

The anticipated bearish scenario will be activated if price breaks decisively below 143.00 (with full-bodied candles), opening the path toward the September 30 support and the average daily bearish range at 140.78.

Technical Summary

• Corrective bullish scenario: Buy positions above 143.00 or 144.00 with TPs at 144.55, 145.00, and 145.49, from where swing selling can resume targeting 142.00 and 141.00.
• Anticipated bearish scenario: Sell positions below 143.00 with TPs at 142.00, 141.00, and 140.00.

Check out the EURJPY trading idea.

Exhaustion/Reversal Pattern (ERP): Before entering any trade in the key zones mentioned above, always wait for the formation and confirmation of an ERP on the M5 timeframe, like the ones taught here 👉 https://t.me/spanishfbs/2258

Uncovered POC: POC = Point of Control. This is the level or zone with the highest volume concentration. If a bearish move followed it, it is considered a sell zone and acts as resistance. Conversely, if a bullish impulse followed it, it is considered a buy zone, usually found at lows, and forms support zones.

AUDUSD ⬆️ Buy

• AUDUSD reversed from the long-term support level 0.5945
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6400

AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support area between the major long-term support level 0.5945 (which started the sharp weekly uptrend in 2020) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support area created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – strong buy signal for AUDUSD .

Given the clear bullish divergence on the weekly Stochastic indicator and the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6400.

EURCHF ⬆️ Buy

• EURCHF reversed from support zone
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9365

EURCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the support area between the strong long-term support level 0.9245 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2023) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous downward impulse waves 3 and (3).

Given the strength of the support level 0.9245 and the bullish divergence on the weekly Stochastic indicator, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.9365.

Market Picture

Crypto market capitalisation has risen by 13% over the past seven days, although there was no significant change over the weekend. This generally looks like a rebound after a drop. Only a rise above the local highs of $2.85 trillion will signal an upturn.

Market sentiment has moved out of the ‘extreme fear’ area into the ‘fear’ area, reaching 31. The index has been in the range of 18-45 for the last seven days, showing positive dynamics and supporting the improvement of market sentiment.

Bitcoin came close to the $85K level, making attempts to break through the 50-day moving average. A sustained consolidation above this level will be an important signal of a trend change. For long-term traders, overcoming the 200-day average, which is directed upwards and passes through $87,500, will be a more reliable reference point.

News Background

Net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs quadrupled last week to $713.3 million, continuing for the second week in a row, SoSoValue notes. Cumulative inflows since Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024 fell to $35.36bn.

Outflows from spot Ethereum-ETFs in the US have now lasted for seven consecutive weeks, reaching $82.5 million in the past week. Since the ETF’s launch in July, cumulative net inflows have fallen to $2.28bn.

At the end of the first quarter, BlackRock’s total crypto assets under management were $50.3bn, equivalent to about 0.5% of its $11.6 trillion in total assets.

The New Hampshire House of Representatives has approved a bitcoin reserve bill. If the Senate and governor approve the document, up to 5% of the state’s funds will be dedicated to precious metals and BTC investments. In North Carolina, lawmakers proposed using cryptocurrencies as a means of payment.