Sample Category Title

Deeply oversold stochastic signals adjustment after last week's strong fall, but overall structure remains negative. Strengthening bearish momentum and double close below pivotal Fibo support at 1.1240 (76.4% of 1.1176/1.1448) add to negative outlook. Solid offers at 1.1280/1.1300 zone (broken Fibo 61.8%/converging 10/20SMA) should limit upticks ahead of final push towards targets at 1.1186/76 (Fibo 61.8% of 2017/2018 1.0340/1.2553 ascend/ 2019 low).

Res: 1.1250, 1.1280, 1.1296, 1.1312
Sup: 1.1219, 1.1210, 1.1186, 1.1176

Notes/Observations

• Euro Zone inflation registered its 4th straight month below the ECB target of 'around 2.0%
• Major European PMI Manufacturing data (France, Germany and Euro Zone) revised lowers to remain in contraction territory
• UK Parliament due to hold a second round of indicative votes on alternative Brexit options; talk of a holding a snap general election has circulated as her Cabinet said to be tense over whether to accept a soft Brexit or call a general election

Asia:

• China Mar Manufacturing PMI saw its 1st expansion since Oct (50.8 v 50.0e)
• China Mar Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered its 1st expansion in 4 months and highest level since July (50.8 v 50.0e
• Japan Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index hit its lowest level since Mar 2017 (12 v 13e; Outlook Survey: 8 v 12e

Europe:

• EU Juncker stated that EU has had a lot of patience with our British friends over Brexit, but patience does runs out; Would like UK to reach an accord over Brexit in the coming days
• Reports circulated that PM May reportedly planned to bring Withdrawal Agreement deal back for a fourth time next week and would threaten election if she could not secure a majority
• UK Official stated that it could ask for another short Brexit extension, talks were ongoing with Northern Irish DUP party over Brexit deal. PM May was open to changing Brexit political declaration (Comments after UK Parliament rejected the Withdrawal Agreement last Friday)
• At least 6 ministers said to be planning to resign if PM May backed a no deal Brexit Other reports note that Brexiteers ministers would resign if PM May supported a customs union or called for another support of UK participation in EU elections

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +1.07% at 383.12, FTSE +0.89% at 7,343.76, DAX +1.39% at 11,686.44, CAC-40 +1.10% at 5,409.54, IBEX-35 +0.79% at 9,317.00, FTSE MIB +0.86% at 21,469.50, SMI +0.37% at 9,512.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.75%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade higher across the board with positive PMI data out of China putting a bid into Global markets. The Shanghai composite rose over 2.5% while US index futures point to a strong open. On the corporate front shares of Easyjet fall sharply in the UK after a cautious outlook citing Brexit uncertainty, with Low & Bonar also declining sharply as Revenue came in below expectations. Seabird Exploration, Voltabox, Paragon and Sanofi trade higher on earnings and trading updates. In other news Panalpina rises after agreeing to be acquired bu DSV in a CHF4.6B deal; Osram Licht rises on deal talk with Bain Capital while Poxel and Circassia Pharma trade higher following respective study updates. Looking ahead notable earners include Cal-Maine Foods, and Sorl Auto parts.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: EasyJet [EZJ.UK] -7%, Ryanair [RYA.UK] -5% (EasyJet's trading update), Low & Bonar [LWB.UK] -21% (trading update)
• Energy: Seabird Exploration [SBX.NO] +7% (new contracts)
• Healthcare: Novartis [NOVN.CH] +0.5% (acquisition), ImmuPharma [IMM.UK] -8% (update on license), AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +1.5% (FDA approval)
• Industrials: Fiat [FCA.IT] +2.5%, PSA [UG.FR] +3.5% (Fiat JV with PSA), Panalpina [PWTN.CH] +16%, DSV [DSV.DK] -1% (to be acquired by DSV)
• Technology: Dialog Semiconductor [DLG.DE] +3.5%, Infineon [IFX.DE] +5%, STMicroelectronics [STM.FR] +3.5% (Hon Hai Precision Industries' earnings), Voltabox [VBX.DE] +5.5% (earnings), Osram Licht [OSR.DE] +3% (CEO interview)
• Materials: Ferrexpo [FXPO.UK] +4% (Independent review update), Iofina [IOF.UK] +10% (debt restructuring)

Speakers

• UK Chief Treasury Secretary Truss: Not clear there was parliamentary majority for softer Brexit
• Greece Central Bank forecasted 2019 GDP growth at 1.9%
• Sweden Govt updated its economic forecasts which cut 2019 GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.6% while maintaining 2020 GDP growth at 1.6%

Currencies/Fixed Income

• EUR/USD was steady despite Euro Zone inflation missing expectations and remaining below ECB target for the 4th straight month. Pair hovering around 1.12 45 area just ahead of the NY morning.
• GBP/USD was higher by 0.3% in the session. Better UK PMI Manufacturing data helped to cement some positive sentiment for the Pound Sterling in the session. UK Parliament due to hold a second round of indicative votes on alternative Brexit options today. PM May continued to face opposition from the DUP party and a faction of pro-Brexit Conservatives. Despite her loss on Friday's Withdrawal Agreement vote the outcome was nonetheless the best showing of PM May's Brexit plan with margin of defeat down to 58 votes

Economic Data

• (RU) Russia Mar Manufacturing PMI: 52.8 v 50.1 prior (6th month of expansion and highest since Jan 2017)
• (SE) Sweden Mar PMI Manufacturing: 52.8 v 51.3e
• (CH) Swiss Feb Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.4%e
• (NL) Netherlands Mar Manufacturing PMI: 52.5 v 52.7 prior
• (NO) Norway Mar PMI Manufacturing: 56.8 v 55.3e
• (HU) Hungary Mar Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 54.3e (40th month of expansion)
• (PL) Poland Mar Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 v 47.4e (5th straight contraction)
• (TR) Turkey Mar Manufacturing PMI: 47.2 v 46.4 prior (12th straight contraction)
• (HU) Hungary Jan Final Trade Balance: €0.4B v €0.4B prelim
• (ES) Spain Mar Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 v 49.7e (returns back to growth)
• (CH) Swiss Mar PMI Manufacturing: 50.3 v 53.6e (lowest since Dec 2015)
• (CZ) Czech Republic Mar PMI Manufacturing: 47.3 v 47.3e (4th straight contraction and lowest since Dec 2012)
• (TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment Index: 51.4 v 49.9 prior
• (IT) Italy Mar Manufacturing PMI: 47.4 v 47.5e (6th straight contraction and lowest since May 2013)
• (FR) France Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 v 49.8e (confirmed move back into contraction for 1st time in 3 months)
• (DE) Germany Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 44.1 v 44.7e (confirmed 3rd straight contraction and lowest since Dec 2012)
• (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 47.5 v 47.6e (confirmed 3rd straight contraction)
• (GR) Greece Mar Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 v 54.2 prior (22nd month of expansion)
• (IT) Italy Feb Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 10.7% v 10.5%e
• (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF) 576.1B v 575.9B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 488.5B v 489.3B prior
• (UK) Mar PMI Manufacturing: 55.1 v 51.2e (32nd month of expansion and highest reading since Feb 2018)
• (HK) Hong Kong Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -10.1% v +3.6%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -10.4% v 3.1%e
• (EU) Euro Zone Mar Advance CPI Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e (4th straight month below ECB target); Core CPI Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
• (EU) Euro Zone Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 7.8%e (matches lowest reading since Dec 2008)
• (ZA) South Africa Mar Manufacturing PMI: 45.0 v 46.5e
• (DK) Denmark Mar PMI Survey: 56.1 v 61.9 prior
• (BE) Belgium Feb Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.8% prior

Fixed Income Issuance

• (MX) Mexico opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 7-year and 20-year bonds via syndicated

Looking Ahead

• (ZA) South Africa Mar Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -5.0%e v -6.7% prior (revised from -6.5%)
• (IT) Italy Mar Budget Balance: No est v -€9.7B prior
• (RO) Romania Mar International Reserves: No est v $36.4B prior
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays)
• 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
• 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
• 08:00 (CZ) Czech Mar Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -19.9B prior
• 08:00 (UK) Baltic Bulk Index
• 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming issuance
• 08:30 (US) Feb Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Retail Sales (Ex-auto) M/M: 0.3%e v 0.9% prior; Retail Sales (Ex-auto/gas): 0.3%e v 1.2% prior; Retail Sales (Control Group): 0.3%e v 1.1% prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb MLI Leading Indicator M/M: No est v 0.0% prior
• 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 53.4 prior
• 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €3.6-4.8B in 3-month. 6-month and 12-month Bills
• 09:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.6 prior
• 09:45 (US) Mar Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 52.5e v 52.5 prelim
• 10:00 (US) Mar ISM Manufacturing: 54.3e v 54.2 prior; Prices Paid: No est v 49.4 prior
• 10:00 (US) Feb Construction Spending M/M: -0.2%e v +1.3% prior
• 10:00 (US) Jan Business Inventories: 0.45e v 0.6% prior
• 11:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Total Remittances: $2.5Be v $2.4B prior
• 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
• 11:30 (MX) Mexico Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.6 prior
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
• 12:00 (IT) Italy Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -2.4% prior
• 14:00 (MX) Mexico Mar IMEF Manufacturing Index: 52.0e v 54.3 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: 51.7e v 50.7 prior
• 15:10 (CA) Bank of Canada's Poloz
• (BR) Brazil Jan CNI Consumer Confidence: No est v 114.3 prior
• (AR) Argentina Mar Government Tax Revenue (ARS): No est v 330.9B prior
• (BR) Brazil Mar Trade Balance: $5.4Be v $3.7B prior; Total Exports: $19.1Be v $16.3B prior; Total Imports: $13.6Be v $12.6B prior

The common European currency appreciated about 59 base points against the Japanese Yen on Friday. The currency pair was supported by the 50-hour simple moving average.

The exchange rate was trading near a resistance level formed by the 200-hour simple moving average at 125.04 during the morning hours of Monday's trading session.

If the 200-hour SMA holds, the currency exchange rate could make a potential reversal towards the lower band of a counter trendline at 124.50.

However, if the pair passes the resistance level as mentioned earlier, the next target for the Euro will be near the weekly R2 at 125.70.

The Australian Dollar appreciated about 49 base points against the US Dollar on Friday. The currency pair breached both the 100– and 200-hour SMAs during Friday's trading session.

The exchange rate was testing the upper boundary of a descending channel pattern at 0.7126 during the morning hours of today's trading session.

If the resistance level formed by the upper band of the descending channel holds, a decline towards the weekly pivot point at 0.7103 could be expected within this session.

However, if the currency exchange rate passes the resistance line, a surge towards the weekly R1 at 0.7143 will be the next targets for bulls.

The US Dollar depreciated against the Canadian Dollar, following the Canadian GDP release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The USD/CAD currency pair lost 54 pips or 0.40% right after the release. The US Dollar continued trading at the 1.3370 level against the Canadian Dollar.

The Statistics Canada released the Canadian GDP data, which came better-than-expected of 0.3% compared with forecasted 0.1%.

By and large, it is likely that the Greenback regain some of its lost positions within this session. Bulls could push the currency exchange rate towards a resistance cluster formed by the 50– and 100-hour SMAs at 1.3400.

The New Zealand Dollar appreciated about 51 base points against the US Dollar on Friday. The currency pair breached the 50-hour simple moving average during Friday's trading session.

The exchange rate tested a resistance cluster formed by the combination of the weekly and the monthly pivot points and the 100-hour SMA near the 0.6837 during the European trading session on Monday.

It is important to note that the US macroeconomic data releases scheduled at 12:30 GMT could influence the overall positioning of the currency exchange rate during the following trading session.

Downside risks have dominated the single European currency versus the Australian Dollar since last week's trading session. The currency pair lost about 1.40% in value during this time period.

Everything being equal, it is likely that the currency exchange rate will continue its decline in the shorter term. Bears could push the pair towards the lower boundary of a dominant ascending channel at 1.5687.

Although, a support level at 1.5733 could provide support for the EUR/AUD exchange rate during the following trading sessions.

The single European currency has lost about 1.55% in value against the Canadian Dollar since last week. The decline began after the currency pair tested the upper boundary of a junior descending channel pattern at 1.5211.

Most likely, the currency exchange rate will continue its decline during this week's trading session. Bears are likely to drive the pair towards a swing low of 1.4897 during the following trading session.

Meanwhile, technical indicators flash bearish signals on both the smaller and the larger time-frame charts.

During Friday's trading session, the yellow metal traded sideways to end the day at 1,290.00. On Monday morning, the rate was located below the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,290.73 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the yellow metal will keep trading sideways to stay between the weekly pivot point at the 1,299.44 mark and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,291.57 mark.

However, today's US Retail Sales release at 12:30 GMT might appreciate the US Dollar against gold to push the rate to the 1,285.00 level.

During Friday's trading session, the currency exchange rate was supported by the 200-hour simple moving average to break the resistance of the 61.80% Fibo to end the day at 110.80. On Monday morning, the rate broke through the medium pattern line to be located at the 111.05 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the rate will continue to surge towards the weekly R1 at the 111.32 mark.

However, today's US Retail Sales release at 12:30 GMT might depreciate US Dollar against the Japanese Yen to push the rate to end the day near the weekly pivot point at the 110.91 mark.