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During Friday's trading session, the 55-hour simple moving average retraced the currency exchange rate to the 1.3000 level. On Monday morning, the British Pound appreciated against the US Dollar to the 1.3074 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the British Pound will be retraced by the 55-hour simple moving average to end the trading day at the 1.2950 level.

On the other hand, today's US Retail Sales release at 12:30 GMT might push the rate to break through the resistance levels of the 55-hour simple moving average and the weekly pivot point to end the day at the 1.3050 level.

During Friday's trading session, the European Single Currency broke the previously drawn pattern line to end the trading day at 1.1200. On Monday morning, the rate broke through the resistance level of the 55-hour simple moving average to the 1.1241 mark.

Most likely, the rate will surge towards the weekly pivot point at the 1.1253 mark to be retraced by the 100-hour simple moving average at 1.1253 mark. It is expected that the rate will end the trading day at the 1.1200 level.

On the other hand, today's US Retail Sales release at 12:30 GMT might depreciate the US Dollar against the European Single Currency to break the resistance levels to push the rate to the 1.1260 level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.73; (P) 144.60; (R1) 145.33; More...

GBP/JPY recovers ahead of 143.72 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, sustained break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 156.58 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus is now staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.10; (P) 124.37; (R1) 124.61; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is neutral so far with today recovery. But further fall is mildly in favor as long as 125.01 resistance holds. Decline from 127.50 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 118.62 to 127.50 at 122.01. However, break of 125.01 will turn bias back to the upside for 126.78/127.50 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 118.62 might have completed earlier than expected at 127.50. EUR/JPY is held well inside medium term falling channel, and below 55 week EMA (now at 127.73). That is, the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) might still be in progress. Break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. On the upside, however, break of 127.50 will extend the rebound from 118.62 to 133.12 key resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8557; (P) 0.8603; (R1) 0.8654; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point as it's staying in range of 0.8474/8722. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.8722 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8474 will resume larger down trend for 0.8416 long term projection next. On the upside, though, break of 0.8722 will resume the rebound from 0.8474 to 0.8840 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high), is a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline could extend to 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5771; (P) 1.5830; (R1) 1.5866; More...

EUR/AUD dips lower today but stays above 1.5721 low so far. Intraday bias remain s neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.5271 will resume the fall from 1.6765 and target 1.5346 support next. On the upside, in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.6122 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1146; (P) 1.1174; (R1) 1.1191; More...

Despite loss of downside momentum, further decline is still in favor in EUR/CHF with 1.1256 resistance intact. Decisive break of 1.1154 key fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole downtrend from 1.12555. That should then pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1444 at 1.0930. For now outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1256 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, multiple rejection by 55 week EMA indicates medium term bearishness. Focus remains on 1.1154/98 support zone (2016 high and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154). Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole down trend from 1.2004 and long term bearish reversal. EUR/CHF should then target 1.0629 support and below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1444 resistance holds.

Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.8% in February, matched expectations. It's the lowest level since October 2008. EU28 unemployment was was also unchanged at 6.5% . It's the record low since the start of series in January 2000.

Among the member states, lowest unemployment rates in February 2019 were recorded in Czechia (1.9%), Germany (3.1%) and the Netherlands (3.4%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (18.0% in December 2018), Spain (13.9%) and Italy (10.7%).

Eurozone CPI closed to 1.4% yoy in March, down from 1.5% yoy and missed expectation of 1.5% yoy. CPI core dropped to 0.8% yoy, down from 1.0% yoy and missed expectation of 1.0% yoy.

Dutch central bank Governor Klaas Knot expects the euro zone economy to perform better in the second quarter after an upsetting start in 2019. He referred to ECB's plan to provide extra liquidity to banks through TLTROs, adding they will be brought forward on stricter conditions. He also confirmed the slowdown displayed in the first months of 2019 do not point to a recession or crisis. Meanwhile, in Italy Treasury Minister Giovanni Tria stated that due to significant economic slowdown in his country, they will not be able to expand fiscal policy. Italy is already burdened by a budget deficit which could increase even further this year if economic growth does not rebound. The EUR could be under strong volatility in the following days due to important financial releases. EURUSD remained at the lower levels that the pair closed near on Friday. Even though the pair has been under a selling interest in previous sessions the pair could rebound today as it has shown signs of stabilization. If the major currency moves in an upward trend we may see it breach the (R1) 1.1260 resistance level and aim higher for the (R2) 1.1300 resistance barrier. Even higher we could see the (R3) 1.1340 resistance level. In the opposite direction we could see the pair breaking below the (S1) 1.1220 support level and aim for the (S2) 1.1175 support barrier. If the selling is to continue we could see the pair aiming for the (S3) 1.1130 support line.

US: Mexican border could close, China remains in goodwill

US president Trump sent threats through twitter and his spokesman that he will shut down U.S.-Mexico border. The threats came amid an excess supply of migrant building up on the boarder and after he cut access to Central American countries previously. The issue brings students and workers that cross the border in a state of worry as this could affect their lives significantly. On another front China in an act of good faith said it will avoid extra tariffs on U.S. vehicles and auto parts after April. This came after the US announced it will not be adding extra tariffs on the Mainland. This provides the opportunity for both countries to benefit from each other under a more optimistic environment. USDCAD dropped on Friday after the positive news from Canada indicated the GDP (MoM) increased to 0.3% from previous negative figure of -0.1%. The positive news provided a boost to the Canadian Dollar which forced USDCAD below the (R1) 1.3360 support level now turned to resistance. If the downward trend is to continue we may see the pair aiming lower for the (S1) 1.3290 support level. Below that we could see the (S2) 1.3235 support line and the (S3) 1.3175 support level. If the pair comes under buying interest we could see it break above the (R1) 1.3360 resistance level and aim higher for the (R2) 1.3425 support line. Even higher we could see the (R3) 1.3510 resistance line being next.

Other economic highlights, today and early tomorrow

In today's European session, we get Germanys Manufacturing PMI along with the Eurozone's Core CPI preliminary reading, both for March, while form the UK we get the Manufacturing PMI for March. In the American session we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March and the US Retail Sales for February.

USDCAD Daily Chart

Support: (S1) 1.3290, (S2) 1.3235, (S3) 1.3175
Resistance: (R1) 1.3360, (R2) 1.3425, (R3) 1.3510

EURUSD Daily Chart

Support: (S1) 1.1220, (S2) 1.1175, (S3) 1.1130
Resistance: (R1) 1.1260, (R2) 1.1300, (R3) 1.1340

Cable bounces in early Monday's trading after strong fall in past three days were contained by 200SMA/bull-channel support line and stalled just ahead thick rising daily cloud top.

Friday's long-legged Doji signaled indecision ahead of key supports and subsequent consolidative/corrective action.

Oversold daily slow stochastic and north-turned momentum support the notion.

Fresh recovery struggles at initial barrier at 1.3074 (55SMA), with extended upticks to face strong resistances at 1.3130/60 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3381/1.2977/converged 10/20/30SMA's).

Limited recovery could be anticipated as overall sentiment soured further after third rejection of PM May's plan and rising concerns about no-deal divorce on current due date on 12 April, as the EU is losing patience.

However, Brexit saga continues and further surprises cannot be ruled out as UK parliament votes on indicative proposals today, with focus on a second referendum and customs union and Sterling is expected to remain volatile this week.

Res: 1.3084, 1.3131, 1.3146, 1.3163
Sup: 1.3009, 1.2977, 1.2960, 1.2923