Sample Category Title

Fed Evans: Scale of China and Europe slowdown watched to determine impact on Fed policy

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said today that Fed will monitor the slowdown in China and Europe to determine any policy actions. And, "it depends a lot on how large the slowdown would be in China, and how big the headwinds would be from European deceleration as well".

Evans also referred to what happened in the past few years on monetary policy. "We were about ready to start raising rates then additional uncertainty pushed us off until December 2015," he said. "And then the uncertainty of 2016 made us wait again until end of 2016."

In the same event in Hong Kong, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said policymakers are "really focused on domestic economic conditions generally in the United States," but "to the extent that it does affect the United States, we fully take that into account."

Into US session: Yen weakest as Airbus deal boosts CAC, Sterling higher

Entering into US session, Yen is the weakest one for today as risk appetite returns to the European markets. Swiss Franc is the second weakest naturally, followed by New Zealand Dollar In particular, Franc CAC is lifted solidly by the massive 300 jet planes purchase from Airbus by China as President Xi Jinping visits EU. German 10-year yield also rises to -0.004, attempting to turn positive.

Meanwhile Sterling is the strongest one, lifted mildly by news that Brexiteers are starting to offer support for Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. The argument is that, to them, May's deal is definitely much better no Brexit, and even second referendum which could lead to no Brexit too. Also, after leaving EU, there are still chances to adjust the relationship by future Prime ministers. For now, Australian Dollar is the second strongest, follow by Canadian.

On the data front, German Gfk consumer confidence dropped to 10.4 but economic expectations improved. UK BBA mortgage approvals dropped notably to 35.3k in February. US will release housing starts and building permits, house price indices, and more importantly, consumer confidence.

In Europe, currently:

  • FTSE is up 0.28%.
  • DAX is up 0.25%.
  • CAC is up 0.74%.
  • German 10-year yield is up 0.0219 at -0.004.

Earlier in Asia:

  • Nikkei rose 2.15%.
  • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.15%.
  • China Shanghai SSE dropped -1.51%.
  • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.55%.
  • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0176 to -0.66.

Rees-Mogg and Fabricant agree May’s Brexit deal is better than no leaving at all

Brexit hardliner Jacob Rees-Mogg reiterated his backing to Prime Minister Theresa May's deal as it's better than no Brexit. He tweeted that "The choice seems to be Mrs May's deal or no Brexit." Also, Rees-Mogg explained in the Monday Moggcast podcast that "I've always thought that no deal is better than Mrs. May's deal, but that Mrs. May's deal is better than not leaving at all." While May's deal is "in no way a good deal, Rees-Mogg said: "against that there are the threats of a long delay, and many people in Parliament who want to frustrate the result of the referendum."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=37&v=BkqghfxYx2U

Conservative MP Michael Fabricant echoed as that it's the "dreadful conclusion" he came to too. And "a new PM can then negotiate a better and more distanced relationship with the EU after Brexit. (Of course this is the least worst option but the only practical way forward for now.)"

Fabricant also said: "The practical alternatives are far worse that the Withdrawal Agreement including keeping us in the Customs Union and Single Market indefinitely so no control of immigration or having to obey EU directives."

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1110483255302766592

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1110489286217003008

Massive Airbus Deals Boosts France’s CAC Index

The French blue-chip CAC index has climbed by 0.70% on Tuesday. Currently, the CAC is trading at 5298, up 0.72%. The index has improved this week, after suffering losses of over 2.0% on Friday. The DAX has posted small gains of 0.10% and is trading at 11,375.

News that China was buying some 300 jet planes from Airbus elated investors and has sent Airbus shares soaring on Wednesday. The airplane maker's shares have jumped 2.6 percent. The deal is worth EUR 34 billion, and Airbus could secure further deals as rival Boeing struggles, following the recent crash of a Boeing passenger jet in Ethiopia last month.

European markets took a plunge on Friday, with the DAX recording its steepest decline since early February. Investors reacted with a thumbs-down after German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs slipped in March and continued to point to contraction. No less worrying, both PMIs have been slowing for months, as the global trade war continues to damage the eurozone and German manufacturing sectors.

German confidence indicators continue to raise concerns about the health of the economy. Consumer climate slipped in March to 10.4 points, after two successive readings of 10.8 points. With the eurozone mired in an economic slowdown and German numbers pointing to weaker growth, it's not surprising that the German consumer has become less optimistic. On Tuesday, German business confidence improved slightly in March, with a reading of 99.6 points. The markets have been accustomed to releases above the 100-level, and the February reading of 98.5 was the weakest since November 2014. The survey noted that any improvement was confined to domestic sectors, such as construction and retail services. The manufacturing sector remains weak, battered down by the ongoing global trade war, which has dampened the appetite for German exports, such as vehicles and auto parts. Germany's economy slowed down in the fourth quarter, and this bodes poorly for the rest of the eurozone.

Gold Eases After Reaching 1-Month High

Gold has declined considerably since hitting the one-month high of 1324.40 on Monday’s trading session, returning back below the red Tenkan-sen line. The technical indicators are suggesting a potential downside risk as both are weakening. The RSI is falling towards the 50 level, while the MACD is ready for a bearish crossover with its trigger line.

Despite the technical indicators view, the current structure remains bullish in short-term, as the price is holding above the ascending trend line over the last three weeks.

Should the price continue the bearish movement, immediate support could come from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1280.63 to 1324.40, near 1314. Slightly below, the uptrend line and the 40-SMA could act as major support levels around 1310. A drop beneath these lines could send the price until the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1307.72 and the 1306.75 support. More downside movement could touch the 50.0% Fibonacci of 1303, which stands inside the Ichimoku cloud.

On the other side, resistance would likely come from the one-month high of 1324.40 ahead of the 1330 – 1333 resistance levels. Breaking these obstacles too, the investors could look next at the ten-month high of 1346.60.

To sum up, gold could follow a positive path in the short term, while in the medium term, the bullish outlook could come back into play if the precious metal overcome the ten-month high.

Chinese Xi meets EU leaders as Juncker called for trade reciprocity

Chinese President Xi-Jingping met European leaders in Pair today, including European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the host French President Emmanuel Macron. Xi said that cooperation is the mainstream in China-Europe relations, and even if there are differences and competition, it is benign competition.

Juncker called for China to open up the markets for the EU. He urged clearer reciprocity so that "European businesses could have the same degree of access to the Chinese market as Chinese businesses have in Europe." Macron said: "We would like to make progress renovating multilateralism. We have divergences, obviously in the history of humanity power does not go without rivalry, none of us are naive," Macron added "But we respect China and are determined to have dialogue and cooperation."

EUR/JPY Breaches 50-Hour SMA

The common European currency is gradually edging higher against the Japanese Yen. The currency pair tested a resistance level formed by the 50-hour simple moving average at 124.79 during yesterday's trading session.

Given that the currency exchange rate has breached the 50-hour SMA, the next target for bullish traders will be at the 100- or the 200-hour SMAs at 125.36/125.86 during the following trading session.

However, a resistance cluster formed by the combination of the weekly and the monthly PPs at 124.95 could pressure the EUR/JPY currency pair further south within this session.

AUD/USD Moving Towards 0.7169

The Australian Dollar appreciated about 60 base points against the US Dollar on Monday. The currency pair dashed through both the 50-, 100– and 200– hour SMAs during Monday's trading session.

The exchange rate is gradually moving towards a resistance cluster formed by the weekly and the monthly pivot points at 0.7147.

If the resistance cluster holds, a reversal down could be expected within this session.

However, if the currency exchange rate passes the resistance cluster, the next target for bullish traders will be near a swing high of 0.7169.

USD/CAD Remains Near Low Band Of Junior Channel

The US Dollar depreciated about 54 base points against the Canadian Dollar on Monday. The currency pair tested the lower boundary of a junior ascending channel pattern at 1.3390 during yesterday's trading session.

A breakout through the lower boundary of the junior ascending channel pattern could be expected within this session.

If this breakout occurs, the next target for bears will be at the 200-hour simple moving average at 1.3348.

However, a support cluster formed by the 100-hour simple moving average and the weekly pivot point could provide support for the pair today.

NZD/USD Likely To Edge Lower

The New Zealand Dollar appreciated about 50 base points against the US Dollar on Monday. The surged was stopped by the monthly pivot point at 0.6927 at the end of the previous session.

As for the near future, it is likely that the currency exchange rate will edge lower towards a support cluster formed by the 50– and 100-hour simple moving averages and the weekly pivot point near the 0.6887 area.

If the support cluster holds, the NZD/USD exchange rate is likely to continue its upside movement during the following trading sessions.