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Bitcoin is attempting to stage an upside recovery on Thursday, after key trendline support on the daily time frame held firm earlier this week. If BTCUSD bulls can move price above the February trading high, the number one cryptocurrency is likely to test its 100-day moving average, at $4,200. The daily time frame also shows that the Stochastic and RSI indicators have turned bullish.

The BTCUSD pair is bullish while trading above the $3,650 level, key technical resistance is found at the $4,000 and $4,200 levels.

If the BTCUSD pair trades below the $3,650 level, sellers may test towards the $3,500 and $3,300 support levels.

Yesterday, US stocks ended the day slightly lower as traders reacted to several pieces of negative news. Firstly, OECD was the latest organization to lower the guidance for global growth. This was its second time in a few months to lower the guidance. Secondly, US trade deficits rose to the highest levels in more than 10 years, a reflection of the negative effects of US tariffs. Thirdly, traders are still waiting for an announcement on the ongoing trade negotiations. As a result of all this, the Dow and S&P 500 declined by 133 points and 18 points respectively.

The euro was little moved ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. The bank is expected to release the interest rates decision at 13:45 (GMT). While the bank will leave rates unchanged, traders will focus on what the bank will say. In the previous releases, officials have guided to a rate hike after summer. However, with the European economy being weak, there are chances that the bank could hold rates for longer. The negative interest rates present a risk to the EU in case of a no-deal Brexit and in case the economy slides into a recession. This is because the ECB will not have adequate tools to react. The region will also release the final reading of the Q4 economic numbers.

After two difficult days, the Australian dollar rose slightly today after the release of retail sales and trade data. In January, the trade surplus increased to A$4.5 billion, which was higher than the expected A$2.85 billion. In December, the surplus was more than A$3.7 billion. The improvement in the surplus was because of the 5% increase in exports and 3% increase in imports. Retail sales rose by 0.1%, which was slightly lower than the expected 0.3% but better than December’s contraction of –0.4%.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair moved slightly lower ahead of the ECB interest rates decision. The pair is trading at 1.1305, which is slightly lower than the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. On the four-hour chart, the pair is slightly below the short and medium-term moving averages. The pair is also establishing a symmetrical triangle pattern as shown below, which is a sign of consolidation, which happens before a breakout. This breakout could happen after today’s ECB decision or after tomorrow’s US jobs numbers.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continued its slump against the USD after the BOC released its interest rates decision yesterday. In the statement, the bank said it could hold rates for longer. The pair reached a high of 1.3460, which is along the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. The level is also along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands and above the short and medium-term EMAs. At the same time, the RSI has risen sharply to above 80. The pair will likely continue the upward trend, with any declines forming important entry points.

AUD/USD

After a few days of sharp declines, the AUD/USD pair rose in overnight trading after the release of retail sales and trade data. The pair is trading at the 0.7050 level, which is above this week’s low of 0.7020. The short and medium-term moving averages appear to be crossing one another, while the commodities channel index has risen sharply to the highest levels since Friday. The pair could resume the downward trend as traders focus on the RBA statement earlier this week.

General Trend:

• Financial and property shares decline in early trade in Shanghai, IT companies rise
• Aluminum giant Rusal declines after Q4 results
• Declines in Renesas weigh on Japan’s Electric Appliances index
• Mizuho declines over 1% after disclosing charges, Japanese brokerage firms and banks drop
• Japan comments on Jan prelim coincident index data: Index signals possible downward turning point
• China Finance Min: Central government to help local governments with fiscal issues
• Australian Dollar (AUD) and bond yields pare declines seen after weaker retail sales data
• Thai Baht (THB) weakens ahead of Constitutional Court ruling
• ECB decision seen later today
• China Feb FX reserves expected later today, monthly trade balance expected on Friday

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened +0.3%
• (AU) Australia Feb AiG Performance of Construction Index: 43.8 v 43.1 prior
• (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (A$): 4.5B V 2.8BE; Exports m/m: +5% v -2% prior; Imports m/m: +3% v -6% prior
• (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E
• (AU) UBS now sees RBA cutting rates two times in 2019, by 25bps in July and again in August by 25bps (prior saw 1 cut in Nov 2019 and 1 in H1 2020)
• (AU) Australia Feb Foreign Reserves: A$68.5B v A$61.3B prior

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened -0.7%
• (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Important to grow US/Japan investment for mutual gain; declines comment on specific remarks in the Abe/Trump talks
• 6723.JP Renesas to pause chip production at six Japan facilities for up to two months, 2019 production is expected to decline by more than 10% - press
• 6723.JP Confirms considering partial suspension of production depending on demand
• 8411.JP Announces total of ¥680B in charges, cuts FY19 Net profit guidance to ¥80B v ¥570B prior (after the close yesterday)
• 9437.JP Targeting FY21 enterprise solutions sales of ¥120B – Nikkei
• (JP) Japan Feb Official Reserve Assets: $1.28T v $1.28T prior
• (JP) Japan Investors Weekly Net Buying of Foreign Bonds: ¥453.1B v ¥1.02T prior; Foreign Buying of Japan Stocks: -¥341.3B v -¥14.2B prior
• (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥700B v ¥700B indicated in 0.70% (prior 0.70%) 30-yr JGBs, avg yield: 0.621% v 0.587% prior, bid to cover 4.56x v 4.72x prior

Korea

• Kospi opens -0.1%
• Hyundai Motor [005380.KR ]: Reportedly considering suspending operations at 1 of 3 Chinese plants it operates with BAIC Group – press
• (KR) UN Security Council expected to report on North Korea sanctions evasion - South Korea Press
• NXPI Samsung said to be considering making an offer to acquire NXP - Korean press; Samsung later denies the report
• (KR) South Korea confirms has modified another joint drill with the US

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opens -0.3%; Shanghai Composite opens +0.1%
• 486.HK Reports Q4 adj Net -$17.0M v +350M y/y; Rev $2.37B v $2.75B y/y
• (KR) Korea Energy Economics Institute: China coal demand to decrease 0.6% y/y until 2040; India coal demand to increase 3.4% y/y until 2040
• (CN) China Pension Fund Head Lou Jiwei: Reiterates China does not use yuan exchange rate to create trade advantages; China won’t make big concessions to the US in order to seal a trade deal, because many of their demands are already in motion
• (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips OMO v skipped prior (6th consecutive skip); Net: CNY0B drain v CNY60B prior
• (CN) China PBoC sets Yuan Reference Rate: 6.7110 v 6.7053 prior
• (CN) China Fin Min Liu Kun: Tax cuts are top fiscal policy in 2019, especially small companies and manufacturers; Pressure to balance fiscal Rev and spending is very pronounced this year
• (US) President Trump: trade talks with China continue to move along well; there will be a good deal or no deal
• (CN) US cabinet manufacturers reportedly want to file large trade case against China - press
• HUAWEI.CN Files lawsuit against US Govt that challenges a law that labels the company a security risk and would limit its access to the American market for telecom equipment(as expected)
• (CN) Longi Green Energy [601012.CN]: There is no evidence that the company's products have patent infringements (responds to media report related to US probe)
• (CN) China Hebei Province Party Chief: To eliminate 14Mt of steel capacity in 2019 and 14Mt in 2020
• (CN) China and EU plan to sign investment accord by 2020 - Financial Press
• (CN) China Securities Regulator (CSRC): To grant the IMF a RQFII license to invest in domestic capital markets

Other Asia

• (TW) Taiwan Central Bank Gov Yang: China capital controls delay yuan internationalization
• (TH) Thailand Constitutional Court is expected to issue ruling on whether to dissolve the Thai Raksa Chart Party at 3pm local time (3:00 AM ET) - local press

North America

• (US) FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY CONTINUED TO GROW IN LATE JAN AND FEB; WITH 10 OF 12 DISTRICTS REPORTING SLIGHT TO MODERATE PACE OF EXPANSION AND 2 SAYING GROWTH WAS FLAT
• (US) Kansas City Fed economist's paper: Fed is starting to consider when to halt decline in reserves and grow the balance sheet
• (US) Federal Reserve Board votes 4-1 to maintain countercyclical capital buffer for banks at 0%; decided to end the qualitative test for the 2019 US bank stress tests
• (US) DEC TRADE BALANCE: -$59.8B V -$57.9BE (largest deficit since Oct 2008)
• (CA) China Customs Agency will increase inspections of canola oil from Canada
• (CA) Canada govt source: PM Trudeau to speak to the public regarding SNC-Lavalin issue this Thurs - press
• (US) President Trump to meet with Treasury Sec Mnuchin at 11:00 ET Thursday

Europe

• (UK) EU officials reportedly are pessimistic about possibility of a Brexit breakthrough within reach – press
• (UK) UK Cabinet said to expect Brexit deal defeat next week – Telegraph
• (EU) ECB reportedly to hold discussions on design of new targeted loans (TLTRO); To cut inflation projections through 2021 - press

Levels as of 12:50ET

• Hang Seng -0.8%; Shanghai Composite -0.2%; Kospi -0.8%; Nikkei225 -0.8%; ASX 200 +0.3%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.2%, Dax -0.2%; FTSE100 +0.1%
• EUR 1.1303-1.1317; JPY 111.58-111.80; AUD 0.7022-0.7052; NZD 0.6765-0.6792
• Commodity Futures: Gold -0.2% at $1,285/oz; Crude Oil +0.1% at $56.30/brl; Copper -0.5% at $2.91/lb

Market movers today

It's time for the long-awaited ECB meeting today. While no changes to interest rates are expected, the growth outlook and new staff projections alongside the discussion about a new liquidity facility will take centre stage. Yesterday, sources close to the ECB revealed that growth and inflation projections would see an extensive downward revision. However, the ECB is still looking for a recovery during the year in line with our expectations and we do not expect new signals at the meeting, or an announcement on a liquidity facility (contrary to market consensus). Watch out for a potential volatile and sharp intraday market reaction, as market expectations for the meeting are more dovish than ours.

US initial jobless claims will give another signal on the status of the business cycle and labour market in the US. Jobless claims have been hovering around 225k for a while, which is still in line with a robust labour market and decent growth.

In Scandi, Norway is set to release data on manufacturing production and Sweden will publish house price statistics.

Selected market news

Swedish apartment and house prices were unchanged in February, according to the Swedish Maklarstatistik. In the Greater Stockholm area, house prices rose 1%, while apartment prices were unchanged.

Yesterday, a Bloomberg story suggested that the ECB staff projections published later today would justify an announcement of a new liquidity operation. The same story suggested growth projections would point to close to potential growth by the end of the year (thereby implying no major change in the growth narrative). While we do not expect a liquidity operation to be announced later today (see above also), the discussion that takes place will be very important for a potential monetary policy case - and as such, point to confidence about a temporary (or potential) structural growth slowdown in the euro area. The ECB published an opinion with no objection to Philip Lane replacing Peter Praet as ECB chief economist. With the EP and ECB's positive opinion on Philip Lane, the European Council would be the last formal body to give approval before Lane could start at the ECB on 1 June 2019.

US crude oil stocks rose more than 7mb last week, according to EIA data published yesterday. While crude oil inventories can be volatile, the large build does raise some concerns about weak demand in the oil market at a time when key figures for global economic growth have been weak.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.80; (P) 147.12; (R1) 147.56; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 148.57 is in progress. Downside of retreat should be contained by 144.84 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 148.57 will target 149.48 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 100% projection of 131.51 to 144.84 from 141.00 at 154.33 next.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that it's the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.15; (P) 126.41; (R1) 126.63; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 127.50 temporary top is extending. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 124.23/125.95 support zone to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 127.50 will resume the rally from 118.62 towards 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 118.62 at 130.28 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that medium term decline from 137.49 (2018 high) has completed with three waves down to 118.62 already. Decisive break of 133.12 resistance will confirm this bullish case. And whole up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) might resume through 137.49 in that case. On the downside, break of 124.23 support will invalidate this case and turn focus back to 118.62 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8567; (P) 0.8594; (R1) 0.8612; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidation from 0.8529 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of further recovery, upside should be limited well below 0.8840 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.8529 will target long term projection target at 0.8416 next.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high), is seen a a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline is now targeting 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5964; (P) 1.6045; (R1) 1.6157; More....

At this point, further rise is still expected in EUR/AUD with 1.5941 minor support. Pull back from 1.6765 should have completed. Further rally should be seen back to retest 1.6765. However, break of 1.5941 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5721 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1348; (P) 1.1359; (R1) 1.1374; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation in range of 1.1310/1444 and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.1310 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume the rebound from 1.1181 and target 1.1501 key resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1310 will indicate completion of the rebound. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.06% against the USD and closed at 1.1309.

On the macro front, the Germany's Markit construction PMI advanced to a level of 54.7 in February, following a reading of 50.7 in January.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in its biannual Economic Outlook report, trimmed its 2019 global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% projected in November. Moreover, the agency also slashed its 2020 growth projection to 3.4%. Furthermore, the OECD cautioned that escalating trade turmoil and uncertainties over Brexit are threatening the global growth outlook.

In the US, data showed that the ADP employment climbed by 183.0K in February, compared to market consensus for a rise of 190.0K. The private sector employment had recorded a revised increase of 300.0K in the prior month.

On the flipside, the nation's trade deficit soared to a 10-year high level to $59.8 billion in December, amid trade dispute with China and compared to a revised deficit of $50.3 billion in the prior month. Market participants had envisaged the nation to post a deficit of $57.9 billion. Moreover, the mortgage applications retreated 2.5% on a weekly basis in the week ended 01 March 2019, compared to a rise 5.3% in the prior week.

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest Beige Book revealed that most of the Fed districts witnessed ‘slight-to-moderate' growth in late January and February. However, the partial government shutdown led to slower economic activity in about half of the districts. Further, the report revealed concerns over economic slowdown in 2019 and supported Fed officials pledge to remain patience on future interest-rate hikes.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1305, with the EUR trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1286, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1266. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1325, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1344.

Looking ahead, traders would keep an eye on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision along with the Euro-zone's gross domestic product for 4Q2018, due to release in a few hours. Later in the day, US consumer credit data for January followed by initial jobless claims, would pique significant amount of investors' attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.