Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.25; (P) 125.51; (R1) 125.67; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 123.78 support will suggest completion of rebound from 118.62 after rejection by 55 day EMA. Deeper fall would then be seen back to retest 118.62 low. However, decisive break of 125.95 will dampen our bearish view and target 129.25 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 (2018 high) already, with corrective structure. Fall from 137.49 is likely still in progress. Decisive break of 118.62 will target 161.8% projection of 137.49 to 124.61 from 133.12 at 112.28, which is inside 109.03/114.84 support zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 129.25 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8661; (P) 0.8695; (R1) 0.8718; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral first. Current development suggests that corrective rise from 0.8617 might have completed already. Break of 0.8666 will target 0.8617/20 key support zone. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.8762 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 0.8840 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). On the downside, decisive break of 0.8620 support will resume the falling leg from 0.9305 (2017 high) to 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416. In that case, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 to contain downside and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5848; (P) 1.5928; (R1) 1.5986; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. We'd continue to favor further rise ahead. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6060 resistance should confirm that decline from 1.6765 has completed. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1326; (P) 1.1341; (R1) 1.1353; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.1310 support holds, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume the rebound from 1.1181 to 1.1501 key resistance next. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1310 will suggest that rebound from 1.1181 might be completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1316; (P) 1.1336; (R1) 1.1355; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.1371 would extend the rebound from 1.1234. In that case, rise from 1.1234 is seen as another leg in the consolidation pattern from 1.1215 and should target 1.1514 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1275 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low instead. Decisive break there will confirm completion of consolidation from 1.1215, and resumption of down trend from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2988; (P) 1.3034; (R1) 1.3101; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. . On the upside, above 1.3109 will target 1.3174/3217 resistance zone. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.2661, h: 1.2391, rs: 1.2773). That would indicate bullish reversal for 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, break of 1.2938 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2773 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 1.3174 resistance with current rebound. Sustained break will indicate completion of decline from 1.4376. Rise from 1.2391 would then be seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). In that case, further rise could be seen through 1.4376 resistance. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3174 again will extend the decline from 1.4376 through 1.2391 to 1.1946 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9984; (P) 1.0005; (R1) 1.0022; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.9981 will resume the decline from 1.0098. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.9964) should confirm completion of rise form 0.9716, after rejection by 1.0128 resistance. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back towards 0.9716 support. On the upside, break of 1.0098 will extend the rise from 0.9716 to 1.0128 high next.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9716 will dampen this bullish view and at least bring deeper fall to 0.9541 key support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.51; (P) 110.71; (R1) 110.87; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it's struggle to get rid of 55 day EMA completely. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

STOCKS

A key development in the US-China trade talks over the weekend has given a boost to the Asian Indices to begin the week on a strong note. The US President's tweet on Sunday for extending the March 1 deadline of new import tariffs on the Chinese goods has triggered a strong surge in the Asians today and is likely to drive the global equities higher through this week. Though some indices like the DAX and Nikkei have resistances near current levels, the bias is positive for them to breach and move higher along with the other major indices.

Dow Jones (26,031.81, +181.18, +0.70%) has risen above the psychological level of 26,000. The outlook is bullish for a test of 26,250. Only a decisive close below 25,900 will turn the view negative for a fall to 25,650 and 25,600.

DAX (11,457.70, +34.42, +0.30%) tested the key resistance level of 11,500 and has come-off slightly from there. While below 11,500 a dip to 11,300 and 11,200 is possible in the near term. But the bias is bullish for an eventual break above 11,500 targeting 11,750 or even higher levels over the medium term.

Nikkei (21,572.11, +146.60, +0.68%) has a resistance near current levels at 21,600 (the 100-day moving average). A strong break above it can take the index further higher to 21,940 and 22,075 in the coming days.

Shanghai (2,878.66, +74.43, +2.65%) has surged breaking above the 200-day moving average resistance (2,756) on Friday and is retaining the momentum. Currently trading near 2,880, a break on the upside could take it higher towards 3,000. Support is seen at 2,730.

Sensex (35,871.48, -26.87, -0.07%) and Nifty 50 (10,791.65, 1.80, 0.02%) traded in a narrow range and closed on a flat note on Friday. While the sensex looks mixed on the charts, the bias on the Nifty 50 is positive for a rise to 10,860 and 10,890 in the near term. As such Sensex is also likely to move up along with the Nifty 50 and test 36,100 and 36,150.

COMMODITIES

Rally in copper gains momentum and the outlook remains bullish for further rise. Gold and may remain range bound for a few days and can rise within the range in the near term. Oil seems to lack fresh buyers and can see a corrective dip in the near-term with the overall uptrend.

Gold (1330) is holding above its support at 1,320. A sideways move between 1320 and 1340 can be seen for sometime. Within this range, a rise to test 1340 is possible in the near term. A breakout on either side of 1320 or 1340 will then decide the next move. Silver (15.95) is bouncing from its support at 15.80 and can revisit 16.2 levels again. A range bound move between 15.8 and 16.2 is possible for some time.

Copper (2.95) has surged breaking above 2.92 and has closed on a strong note last week. As mentioned on Friday, with a double-bottom reversal pattern, the medium-term outlook remains bullish for a test of 3.2 and 3.25.

WTI (57.2) seems to be getting rejected from near 58. A dip to 56 and 55 is possible in the near term. Even a test of 54 cannot be ruled out in the coming days while WTI remains below 58.

Brent (67) has come-off from its high of 67.7. A near-term dip to 66 and 65.5 is possible. Strong support is between 65 and 64.5. While above this support region, the short-term outlook will continue to remain positive for a test of 68 and 70.

FOREX

Big movement in Dollar-Yuan. Euro indecisive. Dollar-Yen tilts towards bearishness. Aussie might see temporary uptick within overall downtrend. Rupee might be stable/ strong.

Three days of indecisive sideways movement in the Euro (1.1339). Dollar Index (96.48) also stuck between 96.25-00 on the downside and 97.00-25 on the upside. Longer term charts favour strength for Dollar Index towards, but that is yet to show up in the price in the near term.

The German-US 2Yr Spread (-3.06%) and 10Yr Spread (-2.57%) both look potentially bearish, suggesting downward pressure for the Euro.

That both Dollar-Yen (110.61) and Euro-Yen (125.41) have found decent Resistances at 111.00 and 126.00 respectively over the last three days and could dip towards 110.00 and 125.00 in the near term also suggest downward pressure for the Euro.

Although the Aussie (0.7135) bounced a bit on Friday, the medium term might be bearish towards 0.7025 while below 0.7200-7250 and while Gold (1333.50) remains below 1350-60.

Dollar-Yuan (6.6883) has fallen sharply today on optimism about the US-China trade talks, which has also pulled the Shanghai sharply higher. USDCNY has broken below significant support at 6.69 and may well test 6.65-63 on the downside in the near term. The 6.69-70 region will now become a significant Resistance.

Dollar-Rupee (71.1450) is quoting lower near 71.01/06 on the NDF market after closing at 71.1450 on Friday.

INTEREST RATES

Jeremy Powell's Congressional testimony over Tuesday-Wednesday, which might be anticipated to be dovish only, unless he happens to get swayed by the recent sharp increase in the Dow and Crude.

The market itself seems to be a bit confused. After recording a good rise on Thursday, possibly breaking downtrends that were in place since Nov-18, US yields dipped a back a bit on Friday. Our own longer term chart studies suggest room on the upside for US yields.

NOTE that US Libors have been falling steadily over the last several weeks, alongwith the overall dip in US yields. Now we need to see if they will move up as US Yields move up a bit.

Indian 10Yr GOI yield (7.6046%) saw a sharp rise on Friday, contrary to our expectation of a dip, and the Indo-US 10Yr Spread (4.9256%) also rose as a result. We will be keen to see if Yields fall back today or not. The highest we have seen so far is 7.6817% on 5th Feb.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3098; (P) 1.3172; (R1) 1.3209; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the momentum. Deeper decline could be seen to 1.3068 key support. Decisive break there will firstly resume whole fall from 1.3664. Secondly, it will be a strong sign of medium term bearish reversal. On the upside, above 1.3242 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3340 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3099) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.