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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1337; (P) 1.1353; (R1) 1.1365; More...

EUR/CHF is still staying in range of 1.1310/1444 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.1310 intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume whole rally from 1.1181 for 1.1501 key resistance next. However, break of 1.1310 will argue that the rebound from 1.1181 might be completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1346

There is still a chance for a brief upswing to 1.1400 area, before drowning towards 1.1214 low.

USD/JPY

Current level - 110.70

My outlook is counter-trend, for a reversal and another attempt at 110.20 support.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3040

The overall outlook remains positive above 1.3000, for a rise towards 1.3212 area.

Australian Dollar is lifted mildly after Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Geng Shuang denied the report that Australian coal imports are banned by Dalian port. He said in a regular press briefing that china's Australian coal imports continue as normal. Nevertheless, customs administration has stepped up environment and safety checks on foreign cargoes.

Australia's Minister for Trade, Simon Birmingham also said that "the application of those quotas combined with different testing and the quality assurance and environment is testing centres, may be slowing down the processing of costing data of coal in certain parts of China." He added that "we have no basis to believe that there is a ban on Australian coal exports into China, or into any part of China."

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison also said "This is not the first time that on occasion local ports make decisions about these matters. "There is no evidence before me or us that would suggest it has the connotations that it has anything to do with anything more broadly than that. This happens from time to time."

According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, China is the largest buyer of Australian coal. Up to 89m tonnes were shipped last year, worth AUD 15B.

USDCAD was supported by the 200-day moving average (MA) this week before turning higher and back above the 50% Fibonacci of the upleg from 1.2781 to 1.3663.

The fast-Stochastics hint that the pair is likely to improve further as the blue % K line and the red %D line are exiting the oversold area. Positive signals, however, are not sufficient yet given the RSI’s location and the movement of the Ichimoku’s indicators; the RSI seems to be losing momentum marginally below its 50 neutral mark, while the red Tenkan-sen lacks direction slightly above the blue Kijun-sen line which is also flat.

Heading further up, the price could find immediate resistance in the crossroads of the 50-day MA and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.3328, where the bullish action topped last week. A stronger rally could surpass the previous high of 1.3373 and challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.3454, any violation of which would open the way towards the 1.36 resistance zone.

Should selling pressure resume beneath the 50% Fibonacci of 1.3222, nearby support could be met between 1.3170 and the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3118. Lower, the bears will push hard to beat the 1.3067 bottom to lead market below the 1.30 mark and towards the 1.2970 restrictive level. If the latter fails to hold, another hurdle could arise around 1.2885.

In the medium-term timeframe, USDCAD continues the neutral phase as long as it fluctuates within the 1.3663-1.30 region.

When it comes to Brexit, it is anticipated that the divorce will not be taking place at the end of March. Instead, there will be an extension on the current Brexit deadline. The hope is that this leeway will give birth to a more plausible solution for all the outstanding issues. The Europen Union is hoping that the UK’s parliament will force Theresa May to ask for an extension on the current deal. So far she is determined to stay on track but at the same time, she hasn’t completely ruled this option out. She is still likely to present the parliament with two options: her deal or tumble out of Europe without any deal.

Sterling traders are surely optimistic for now and this it is this cheerfulness which has pushed the price of sterling back above the 1.30-mark against the USD.

European markets and US futures are tracking mixed trading session over in Asia and the sentiment is somewhat mixed to kick start the trading here. But the S&P 500 is still on track to record another positive week of gains. Since December 21, we have not seen the index closing lower than its previous week’s closing price. In other words, we have nearly 9 weeks of consecutive gains and looking at this particular week’s tradition action, it seems like traders are ready to take some profit off the table.

Nonetheless, the S&P 500 index is still up 10.69% year-to-date and the music is similar for the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq, both of them have recorded solid gains of 10.82% and 12.43% YTD. The volatility indices; the VIX index and the VSTOXX are down massively: 43.12% and 39.89% year-to-date, respectively.

Back in States, it is all about the US president meeting the Chinese trade chief, Lie He. Trade discussions are going to be the primary subject this afternoon and the question is if they can forge a deal. The expectations are tall and it is highly likely that all the hurdles are already settled, and this meeting is more of a formality than anything else. This is because Trump has already said that “big progress being made on soooo many different fronts!” and there are also reports that China could be buying an additional $30 billion a year of additional US agricultural products consist of corn, wheat and soybean, a real win for Trump administration.

Pivot (invalidation): 57.20

Our preference Short positions below 57.20 with targets at 56.60 & 56.10 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 57.20 look for further upside with 57.60 & 58.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Pivot (invalidation): 15.9100

Our preference Short positions below 15.9100 with targets at 15.7600 & 15.6700 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 15.9100 look for further upside with 15.9800 & 16.0400 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Pivot (invalidation): 1332.00

Our preference Short positions below 1332.00 with targets at 1321.00 & 1314.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1332.00 look for further upside with 1336.00 & 1341.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further downside.

Pivot (invalidation): 2785.00

Our preference Short positions below 2785.00 with targets at 2763.00 & 2750.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 2785.00 look for further upside with 2795.00 & 2810.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further downside.

Pivot (invalidation): 11310.00

Our preference Long positions above 11310.00 with targets at 11490.00 & 11560.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 11310.00 look for further downside with 11238.00 & 11170.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed.