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Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.66; (P) 109.20; (R1) 109.60; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 107.77 support. The rebound from 104.69 could have completed at 110.00 already. Firm break of 107.77 will confirm and bring retest of 104.69. On the upside, above 109.14 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 110.00 will extend the rebound. But we'd expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it's a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Risk appetite fades today as sentiments are weighed down by a string of weak economic data from Eurozone and US. In short, German retail sales dropped the most in 11 years. Eurozone GDP growth was stuck at 4-year low in Q4. Italy was in technical recession in H2 2018. US initial jobless claims jumped to highest since Sep 2017. Canada GDP contracted in November. Fed's dovish turn yesterday boosted stocks yesterday. But it's worth a thought on whether such turn is a positive or negative sign.

In the currency markets, Yen is the strongest for today for the moment, followed by Australian Dollar. Sterling is the worst performing one, followed by Canadian. Dollar is trying to recover as FOMC triggered selloff lost momentum. Trump's comments on US-China trade talks are positive. But Dollar will probably need to get a rather impressive non-farm payroll report for staging a sustainable rebound.

In other markets, DOW futures is currently down near 100 pts. FTSE is trading up 0.50%. DAX is down -0.52%. CAC is up 0.04%. German 10-year yield is down -0.021 to 0.169. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.06%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.08%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.35%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.50%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0014 to 0.002.

US initial jobless claims jumped to 253k, highest since Sep 2017

US initial jobless claims jumped 53k to 253k in the week ending January 26, well above expectation of 210k. That's also the highest level since September 30, 2017. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 220.25k.

Continuing claims rose 69k to 1.782M in the week ending January 19. It's also the highest level since April 28, 2018. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 8k to 1.738M, highest since August 4, 2018.

Also from US, employment cost index rose 0.7% in Q4, below expectation of 0.8%.

Trump: Working with China on a complete deal, leave nothing unresolved

Trump sounds optimistic again in a serious of tweets regarding trade talk with China. He said the meetings in Washington are "going well with good intent on both sides". Trump is expected to meet with China's representatives, including Vice Premier Liu He, in the Oval Office today".

But he also emphasized that "no final deal will be made until my friend President Xi, and I, meet in the near future to discuss and agree on some of the long standing and more difficult points." He noted that both sides are trying to do a "complete deal, leaving NOTHING unresolved on the table".

Separately, WSJ reported that China's trade negotiators are proposing Trump-Xi meeting in China next month.

Canada GDP contracted -0.1% mom, matched expectations

Canada GDP contracted -0.1% mom in November, matched expectations. Looking at the details, decreases in wholesale trade, finance and insurance, manufacturing and construction more than offset gains in 13 of 20 industrial sectors. Goods-producing industries were down 0.3%, the third decline in four months, while services-producing industries were essentially unchanged.

Also from Canada, RMPI rose 3.8% mom in December versus expectation of 3.9% mom. IPPI dropped -0.7% mom versus expectation of 0.1% mom.

Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q4, Italy contracted -0.2% qoq

Eurozone (EA19) GDP growth came in at to 0.2% qoq in Q4, matched expectations. it's also the same rate as in Q3. That's also the lowest rate in four years since Q2 of 2014. Annual rate slowed to 1.2% yoy, down from Q3's 1.6% yoy. The year-on-year rate is a five year low. European Union (EU28) GDP growth came in at 0.3% qoq. Annual rate slowed to 1.5% yoy, down from 1.8% yoy.

Also released, Italy GDP contracted -0.2% qoq in Q4, worse than expectation of -0.1% qoq. Italian was in technical recession with two consecutive quarters of contraction.

Weak German retail sales and France CPI

German retail sales dropped -4.3% mom in December, way below expectation of -0.5% mom. That's also the fastest decline in 11 years since 2007. The decline was partly due to a strong November with pre-Christmas shopping and one-off discounts. But it's yet another warning that the growth engine of Eurozone is slowing down quickly. Also from Germany, unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0% in January. But unemployment dropped less than expected by -2k only.

From France, CPI dropped -0.4% mom in January. Annual rate slowed sharply from 1.6% yoy to 1.2% yoy. INSEE noted that "The fall in inflation should result from a pronounced deceleration in the prices of energy. Services prices should rise at the same pace as in December and those in manufactured products should drop barely less than in the previous month. Contrariwise, food and tobacco prices should gather pace."

UK Hunt: Takes a few days to prepare new Irish border backstop proposal

UK Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said the government is putting together the new Irish border backstop proposal for the EU. And "it is going to take a few days to do that".

Hunt added "there is potential along all the different routes that have been discussed. But we need to put those together, make sure they meet the concerns the EU has expressed and then I think… we will have a proper discussion."

While the March 29 formal Brexit date approaching, Hunt still maintained that it's too early to say if extension to Article 50 is needed.

BoJ opinions: Swift decisive actions needed should downside risks materialize

BoJ released summary of opinions of January 22/23 monetary policy meeting today. It's noted there that "hard data suggest that the trend in Japan's economy has been firm". However, "some market participants hold excessively pessimistic views." And, risks to overseas economies have been "increasingly tilted to the downside" and there are concerns that some "may materialize".

BoJ also noted that recent fall in stocks prices "to a certain extent indicates the anticipation of a global decline in the real economic growth rate." And, "this is clear from developments in exports and imports, rather than GDP, which is declining marginally."

The central bank also reiterated the stance to maintain current monetary easing. And more importantly, if downside risks materialize, BoJ "should be prepared to make policy responses". It's added that "Since achieving the price stability target has been delayed, it is not desirable to adopt a stance of not taking actions until a serious crisis occurs. Rather, a stance of taking swift, flexible, and decisive actions, including additional easing, in response to changes in the situation is desirable."

China PMI manufacturing broke downtrend, but stayed contractionary

China PMI manufacturing rose 0.1 to 49.5 in January, up from 49.4 and beat expectation of 49.3. It's, nonetheless, the second month of contractionary reading. It's noted in the release that the continuous decline since August last year was finally broken, showing signs of stabilization. Slight increase in export orders also suggested that sharp decline export growth since November was slowing down.

However, decline in new orders and backlog orders reflected downward pressure on demand. Overall, "the current economy has signs of stabilization, but the foundation still needs to be consolidated. Also from China PMI non-manufacturing rose to 54.7, up from 53.8, and beat expectation of 53.9.

Also release in Asia session, Japan industrial production dropped -0.1% mom in December versus expectation of -0.5% mom. Housing starts rose 2.1% yoy in December, matched expectation. Australia import prices rose 0.5% qoq in Q4, above expectations of 0.3% qoq. UK Gfk consumer confidence was unchanged at -14 in January.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.66; (P) 109.20; (R1) 109.60; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 107.77 support. The rebound from 104.69 could have completed at 110.00 already. Firm break of 107.77 will confirm and bring retest of 104.69. On the upside, above 109.14 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 110.00 will extend the rebound. But we'd expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it's a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Economic Indicators Update

Canada GDP contracted -0.1% mom in November, matched expectations. Looking at the details, decreases in wholesale trade, finance and insurance, manufacturing and construction more than offset gains in 13 of 20 industrial sectors. Goods-producing industries were down 0.3%, the third decline in four months, while services-producing industries were essentially unchanged.

Full release here.

Also from Canada, RMPI rose 3.8% mom in December versus expectation of 3.9% mom. IPPI dropped -0.7% mom versus expectation of 0.1% mom.

US initial jobless claims jumped 53k to 253k in the week ending January 26, well above expectation of 210k. That's also the highest level since September 30, 2017. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 220.25k.

Continuing claims rose 69k to 1.782M in the week ending January 19. It's also the highest level since April 28, 2018. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 8k to 1.738M, highest since August 4, 2018.

Full release here.

Also from US, employment cost index rose 0.7% in Q4, below expectation of 0.8%.

Entering into US session, Dollar remains the weakest one today, after suffering broad based selloff on dovish FOMC announcement yesterday. At this point, Canadian Dollar is the second weakest while Sterling is the third weakest.

Australian Dollar is the strongest one following strong rally in Asian stocks. However, it has to be noted that Yen is the second strongest one. And European markets are just mixed today. We're a bit skeptical on overall strength in the stock markets. But let's see how it goes in the US first. DOW future is currently down -0.1% despite Trump's upbeat tweets on China trade talks.

European stocks, and to a certain extent Euro, might be weighed down by Eurozone data. German retail sales had biggest monthly drop since 2007. Eurozone Q4 GDP grew at lowest pace in four years. Italy was in technical recession in H2 2018.

In European markets, currently:

• FTSE is up 0.55%.
• DAX is down -0.23%.
• CAC is up 0.10%.
• German 10-year yield is down -0.012 at 0.179.

Earlier in Asia:

• Nikkei rose 1.06%.
• Hong Kong HSI rose 1.08%.
• China Shanghai SSE rose 0.35%.
• Singapore Strait Times rose 0.50%.
• Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0014 to 0.002.

Trump sounds optimistic again in a serious of tweets regarding trade talk with China. He said the meetings in Washington are "going well with good intent on both sides". Trump is expected to meet with China's representatives, including Vice Premier Liu He, in the Oval Office today".

But he also emphasized that "no final deal will be made until my friend President Xi, and I, meet in the near future to discuss and agree on some of the long standing and more difficult points." He noted that both sides are trying to do a "complete deal, leaving NOTHING unresolved on the table".

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1090953323895840768

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1090954907593646081

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1090957015038545920

EURUSD targets further upside pressure on price extension as it retains its upside pressure. Support comes in at the 1.1450 where a violation will aim at the 1.1400 level. A break below here will target the 1.1350 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.1300. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the upside, resistance resides at 1.1550 level with a break through there opening the door for further upside towards the 1.1600 level. Further up, resistance comes in at the 1.1650 level where a violation will expose the 1.1700 level. All in all, EURUSD continues to threaten further upside pressure.

The British pound is starting to lose bullish momentum against the US dollar after traders failed to rally sterling to new weekly trading highs after yesterday’s FOMC interest rate decision. The GBPUSD pair still remains bullish while trading above the 1.3090 level, although warning signs are starting to emerge that the GBPUSD pair may have peaked. Technical indicators are also showing that GBPUSD pair could soon start to correct lower.

The GBPUSD pair remain bullish while trading above the 1.3090 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.3170 and 1.3205 levels

If the GBPUSD pair trades below the 1.3090 level, key support is found at the 1.3055 and 1.3000 levels.

The US dollar has continued to decline against the Japanese yen during the European trading session, with the risk-sensitive pair reaching its weakest trading level since mid-January. Overall, the move lower is gathering pace, following the earlier break below the neckline of a well-flagged head and shoulders pattern. The US dollar index is also under considerable pressure, further accelerating the bearish technical developments in the USDJPY pair.

The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 109.14 level, key technical support is found at the 108.45 and 108.10 levels.

If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.14 level, buyers may test towards the 109.45 and 110.00 resistance levels.

Notes/Observations

• Key data releases out of Europe saw a mixed bag
• German Dec Retails Sales data worse than expected
• Spain Q4 Advance GDP beat consensus while Italy misses and registers a recession; Euro Zone growth in-line
• CPI data worse for France, Spain, Portugal
• Germany Jan Unemployment Change misses while the rate was in-line and matched the German unification low
• Fed delivered a surprisingly dovish policy statement
• Zero sound bites heard from the 1st day of US-China trade talks

Asia:

• Japan Dec Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% V -0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.9% V -2.3%e
• South Korea Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5%e
• China Jan Manufacturing PMI registered its 2nd straight contraction (49.5 v 49.3e)
• BOJ Amamiya: Reiterates important to continue with easing; need to contain negative effects to continue easing
• S&P raised New Zealand Sovereign Rating outlook to positive from stable; Affirmed AA rating
• Fitch affirmed New Zealand sovereign rating at AA; Outlook stable

Europe:

• EU's Tusk reiterated EU stance that the Brexit withdrawal agreement was not open for renegotiation; the EU position was clear and consistent. Found out what the UK did not want but still don't know what the UK does want
• EU's Juncker: Current Brexit deal on the table is the only one possible; the withdrawal accord will not be renegotiated; Disorderly Brexit is now more likely
• Germany Finance Ministry Jan Report: Growth risks remain high, especially for exports
• UK Jan GfK consumer Confidence: -14 v -15e (lowest since July 2013)
• Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Small Business Survey: Export sentiment falling at fastest pace since financial crisis; overseas political and economic worries highest since survey started in 1988

Americas:

• Fed leaves policy unchanged (as expected) removed reference to further gradual rate increases and added the word 'patient' in references to future policy action. Fed prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments

Macro

• (US)United States: It appears then that the Fed bowed to market pressure that followed the last rate hike, which suggested they might have pushed the normalization envelope too hard. The FOMC statement dialled back from a rigid tightening pace and balance sheet reduction schedule that confirmed their stated inclination to be more "patient" and "flexible," which were written back into the report. At face value the market now believes the Fed may address the tightening schedule completely while waiting for recent volatility and headwinds from trade/tariffs and the government shutdown to run their course.
• (DE) Germany: January unemployment remained steady at a record low of 5.0% as the jobless numbers fell back -2k during the month. Vacancies fell and the monthly decline in jobless data is much lower than that seen in previous months, which may suggest spare capacity pretty much exhausted and skill shortages evident in many sectors. This in turn is driving up wage costs and consumer confidence data has suggested that the willingness to buy is picking up as consumers are expecting improvements in disposable income, especially as base effects from oil prices are keeping a lid on inflation.
• (DE) Germany: Retail sales fell -4.3% m/m in December with the annual rate at -2.1% y/y. Anecdotal evidence points to Christmas shopping spend is increasingly being brought forward into November to benefit from Black Friday sales. Given the recent run of poor German data it will add to concerns about the state of the overall economy.

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.18% at 358.76, FTSE +0.57% at 6,981.25, DAX +0.08% at 11,190.98, CAC-40 +0.26% at 4,987.45, IBEX-35 -0.44% at 9,031.75, FTSE MIB -0.49% at 19,674.50, SMI -0.05% at 8,973.00, S&P 500 Futures %]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade mostly higher this morning with the exception of the Spanish Ibex and FTSE Mib on the back of a strong session in the US yesterday following a dovish hold by the FED, and slightly higher futures this morning. Generally positive overnight earnings namely from tech names continued to propel the tech sector as Facebook reported a strong top and bottom line beat. On the corporate front shares of Beverage name Diageo trades higher on y/y earnings and Revenue growth; Royal Dutch Shell also rises as an a strong earnings and Revenue beat while Roche also rises on strong full year results and guidance. Meanwhile Retailer H&M declines after a fall in profits, with Unilever, Nokia, BT Group and Swatch among other notable names declining on earnings. Elsewhere Wirecard shares rebound slightly after responding the allegations of alleged fraud; OHL rises on expressions of interest for Vollar Mir stake in the company while AO group declines following the steeping down of its CEO. Looking ahead notable earners include GE, Sprint, DowDupont, Mastercard, UPS, Celgene, Eaton Corp and Hershey among others.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Unilever [UNA.NL] -2.5% (earnings), H&M [HMB.SE] -1.5% (earnings), Diageo [DGE.UK] +5% (earnings; incremental buyback), Swatch Group [UHR.CH] -6% (earnings), AO World [AO.UK] -1.5% (CEO to step down)
• Energy: Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.NL] +3.5% (earnings), Orsted [ORSTED.DK] n/c (earnings)
• Healthcare: Roche [ROG.CH] +2.0% (earnings), Bayer [BAYN.DE] +1.5% (research alliance), Redx Pharma [REDX.UK] -20% (NBTI program announcement), Essity [ESSITY-A.SE] +9% (earnings)
• Industrials: RPC Group [RPC.UK] +4% (announces another potential takeover offer)
• Technology: Siltronic [WAF.DE] +1.5% (earnings)
• Telecom: Nokia [NOKIA.FI] -5.5% (earnings), BT Group [BT.A.UK] -5% (earnings), Elisa [ELISA.FI] -3% (earnings)

Speakers

• ECB said to be increasing pressure in regards to bank's non-performing loans (NPLs)
• UK Foreign Min Hunt: Brexit negotiating team will change. Brexit proposals would not be ready in the coming days. UK might need more time to pass critical legislation
• EU Parliamentary member Hubner (Poland): Could only give additional assurances to UK over Brexit backstop in a political declaration on future EU-UK ties
• Spain Fin Min Calvino: Growth can remain robust in 2019; slowdown was not a concern
• Philippines Central Bank (BSP): Jan CPI seen between 4.3-5.1% range (compares to 5.1% in Dec)
• China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) Spokesman Gao: No new info about ongoing trade talks. China holds firm, constant stance on IP protection.

Currencies/Fixed Income

• FOMC dovish hold helped risk appetite that drove US equities higher and pushed two- and five-year Treasury yields to the lowest since mid-January. The sentiment was followed in both Asia and European equity action. Rates traders cut what little positioning remained for a hike in 2019 and are gaining confidence in a 2020 easing of policy - EUR/USD initially probed 3-week highs to test 1.1514 early in the session but a mixed bag of economic data from the EU capped the ascent for now. Pair was little changed at 1.1480 as the NY morning approached
• GBP/USD was little changed as Brexit news flow mainly centered around the EU side which reiterated that renegotiation of the Withdrawal agreement was not an option.
• The JPY current did not participate in the risk-on environment. The pair focused on the US yields and USD/JPY was lower by 0.3% to test below 108.65 in the session.

Economic Data

• (DE) Germany Dec Retail Sales M/M: -4.3% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v +1.5%e
• (UK) Jan Nationwide House Price M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0%e
• (FI) Finland Nov Final Trade Balance: €0.0B v -€0.1B prelim
• (FI) Finland Dec House Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1% prior
• (DK) Denmark Dec Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.1% v 3.1% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 3.8% v 3.8% prior
• (NO) Norway Dec Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.4%e
• (TR) Turkey Dec Trade Balance: -$2,7B v -$2.7Be
• (TH) Thailand Dec Current Account Balance: $5.0B v $3.5Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): -$0.2B v +$0.4B prior; Trade Account Balance: $2.5B v $0.7B prior; Exports Y/Y: -1.6% v 0.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: -6.7% v 16.2% prior
• (FR) France Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
• (FR) France Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
• (TW) Taiwan Q4 Preliminary GDP Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.1%e; Overall 2018 Annual GDP Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.7%e
• (ES) Spain Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e
• (ES) Spain Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: -1.3% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e
• (ES) Spain Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.7% v -1.6%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e
• (HU) Hungary Dec PPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.7% v 5.1% prior
• (DE) Germany Jan Unemployment Change: -2K v -10.Ke; Unemployment Claims Rate: 5.0% v 5.0%e
• (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 10.3% v 10.6%e
• (IS) Iceland Dec Final Trade Balance (ISK): -11.0B v -10.7B prelim
• (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Feb Daily FX Purchases (NOK): -450M v -350M prior
• (PL) Poland 2018 Annual GDP Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.0%e
• (CZ) Czech Dec M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.5% v 6.0% prior
• (ES) Spain Nov Current Account Balance: €1.8B v v €0.3B prior
• (PT) Portugal Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: -1.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.7% prior
• (PT) Portugal Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.3% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
• (ZA) South Africa Dec PPI M/M: -0.9% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.9%e
• (SL) Sri Lanka Jan CPI Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.8% prior
• (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
• (EU) Euro Zone Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 7.9%e
• (IT) Italy Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3%e
• (BE) Belgium Dec Unemployment Rate: 5.5% v 5.5% prior

Fixed Income Issuance

• None seen

Looking Ahead

• (CN) US-China trade talks in Washington DC (final planned day)
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds (3 tranches)
• 06:00 (IN) India Dec Fiscal Deficit (INR Crore): No est v 68042 prior
• 06:00 (IT) Italy Dec Hourly Wages M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior
• 06:00 (IL) Israel Dec Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.1% prior
• 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec National Unemployment Rate: 11.4%e v 11.6% prior
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (IN) India Dec Eight Infrastructure (Key) Industries Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior
• 07:00 (IN) India 2018 GDP Annual Estimate Y/Y: No est v 6.7% prior
• 07:00 (UR) Ukraine Central Bank (NBU) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Key Rate unchanged at 18.00%
• 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Trade Balance (ZAR): 9.1Be v 3.5B prior
• 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Manufacturing Production Y/Y: +0.9%e v -4.7% prior; Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.4% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 540.7K tons prior
• 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Unemployment Rate: 6.7%e v 6.8% prior
• 07:30 (US) Jan Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 43.9K prior; Y/Y: No est v 35.3% prior
• 07:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -64.6e v -50.6B prior; Primary Budget Balance: -37.7Be v -15.6B prior; Net Debt to GDP: 53.5%e v 53.3% prior
• 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jan 25th: No est v $469.6B prior
• 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Jan Minutes
• 08:00 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:30 (US) Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI): 0.8%e v 0.8% prior
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 215Ke v 199K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.72Me v 1.713M prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov GDP M/M: -0.1%e v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 2.2% prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Industrial Product Price M/M: +0.1%e v -0.8% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: +4.0%e v -11.7% prior
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales data
• 09:45 (US) Jan Chicago Purchasing Manager: 61.5e v 65.4 prior
• 10:00 (US) Nov New Home Sales: 570Ke v 544K prior
• 10:00 (CA) Canada Jan CFIB Business Barometer : No est v 53.6 prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 4.455T prior
• 10:00 (CO) Colombia Dec National Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.8% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.0%e v 9.8% prior
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
• 11:00 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany)
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills
• 12:45 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Wilkins
• 15:30 (US) President Trump to meet China Vice Premier Liu He
• 16:00 (US) Nov Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $42.0B prior; Net Long-Term TIC Flows: No est v 31.3B prior