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Despite edging higher to 1.1496, EUR/USD failed to break through 1.1499 resistance again and dipped back into established range. Initial price remains neutral first. The corrective structure from 1.1215 so far suggests that larger decline is not completed yet. And downside breakout is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.1270 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low. Break will resume down trend from 1.2555 to 1.1186 key fibonacci level. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1499 will suggest near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 1.1621 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

USD/JPY dived to as low as 104.69 last week but rebounded just ahead of 104.62 low. Intraday bias stays on the upside this week for further recovery. But upside will likely be limited by 109.46 minor resistance. On the downside, below 106.74 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 104.62 low. Overall, larger downtrend from 118.65 (2016 high) is expected to resume finally through 104.62 after current consolidation from 104.69 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD spiked lower to 1.1391 but quickly rebounded. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rally. But overall, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2814 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.2615 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.2391 first. Break will extend the down trend from 1.4376 and target 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2661 from 1.3174 at 1.2114 next. However, firm break of 1.2814 resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 1.3174 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view.

In the longer term picture, outlook in GBP/USD remains bearish. Rebound from 1.1946 was rejected solidly by falling 55 month EMA. The pair was limited well below 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946, as well as the decade long falling trend line. On break of 1.1946, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135.

USD/CHF stayed in right range above 0.9789 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Fall from 1.0128 is seen as a correction. Thus, in case of another decline, downside should be contained by 0.9765/8 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9765, 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0128 at 0.9768) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9963 resistance will suggest that such correction has completed and turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.0128 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.9765/8 will bring deeper fall back to 0.9541 support next.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.0128 was slightly deeper than expected, the structure suggests it's a corrective move. As long as 0.9765/8 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9765, 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0128 at 0.9768) holds, we'd expect up trend from 0.9541 and 0.9186 to resume later through 1.0128. However firm break of 0.9765/8 will argue that the trend has reversed. Further break of 0.9541 support will confirm this bearish scenario and bring deeper fall back to 0.9186 low.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we'll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD spiked lower to 0.6722 last week but recovered strongly since then. The strength of the rebound suggests a short term bottom is in place. Intraday bias remains on the upside this week for further rebound. On the downside, break of 0.7015 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6722 low. Overall, larger down trend from 0.8135 is expected to resume later after consolidation completes.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is now ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

USD/CAD formed a short term top at 1.3664 last week, just ahead of 1.3685 long term fibonacci level, and dropped sharply from there. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3664 at 1.3327, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3324). As such decline is viewed as a corrective move for now, we'd expect strong support from 1.3327 to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3495 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3664 high. However, sustained break of 1.3327 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.3118 instead.

In the bigger picture, the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might continue further. But the structure of such rise is not clearly impulsive so far. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2993) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

GBP/JPY spiked lower to 131.51 last week but recovered since then. The strength of the rebound argues that a short term bottom is already in place. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for further rise. On the downside, break of 135.66 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 131.51 low. Overall, larger down trend from 155.59 is expected to resume later after the consolidation completes.

In the bigger picture, corrective medium term rise from 122.36 (2016 low) has completed at 156.69 already. That came after failing to break through 55 month EMA. Fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high). Below 131.51 will target 122.36 low first. Break of 122.36 will target 116.83 low first (2011 low). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 139.88 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.88 will mix up the outlook and we'll reassess on the final structure of the rebound from 131.51.

In the longer term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA is seen as a bearish signal. And fall from 195.86 (2015 high) should still be in progress. Break of 122.26 should confirm this bearish case and send GBP/JPY through 116.83 low.

EUR/JPY spiked lower to 118.62 last week but recovered strongly since then. A short term bottom should be in place based on the strength of the rebound. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise. On the downside, break of 121.80 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 118.62 low first. Overall, larger down trend is expected to resume later after the consolidation completes.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already, with corrective structure. Fall from 137.39 is seen as a medium term fall, resuming the decline from 149.76 (2014 high). Such decline should break through 109.03 low next. This will remain the preferred case as long as 124.61 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 124.61 will mix up the outlook and we'll reassess on the final structure of the rebound from 118.62.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. It could extend through 109.03 to resume the decline from 149.76 But in that case, we'd expect strong support around 94.11 (2012 low) to bring reversal.

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.9101 last week but failed to sustain above 0.9098 resistance and retreated sharply. Nevertheless, downside is contained above 0.8927 support and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9098 resistance will extend the whole rise from 0.8655 to 0.9304 key resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 0.8927 support will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the downside for 0.8810 support and below.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). It should be in medium term rising leg for 0.9304. Meanwhile, in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 0.8620/55 support zone to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, we're holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.

EUR/AUD spiked higher to 1.6765 last week but pulled back sharply from there. A short term top was formed and initial bias is now on the downside for pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5919) and possibly below. On the upside, above 1.6205 minor resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6765.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high), argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low), is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. And this will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.