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Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin climbed above $99,000 – a level not seen since late February this year.

However, the bullish momentum proved insufficient to breach the psychological $100,000 barrier, and this morning the leading cryptocurrency is holding above $98,000. Since the start of the month, the BTC price has risen by nearly 5%.

Why is Bitcoin rising?

Two main drivers may have contributed to yesterday’s price surge:

→ Expectations of a forthcoming trade agreement between the US and (reportedly) the UK, already announced by Donald Trump. Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Anthony Pompliano stated that the upcoming deal “means the odds of reaching new all-time highs in 2025 are increasing.”

→ The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current level for another month, despite growing pressure from US President Donald Trump, who just weeks ago threatened to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell for “cutting rates too late.” Market participants may have interpreted this as a bullish signal for cryptocurrencies.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

In our previous analysis (2 May), we:

→ extended the long-term upward channel (highlighted in blue);

→ suggested that the uptrend in the Bitcoin chart had resumed following a correction along line R – a view supported by the current bullish trajectory (indicated with purple lines).

Price behaviour around the $95,000 level is particularly noteworthy. This level previously acted as both support and resistance (as shown with arrows), and in late April and early May, the Bitcoin price appeared to stabilise near it (marked), which may be interpreted as a temporary equilibrium between supply and demand.

Yesterday’s rise may indicate that the balance has shifted in favour of the buyers. How resilient the current positive sentiment proves to be could be revealed by how BTC/USD behaves in the face of a potential attempt to breach the psychological $100,000 level.

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The USD/JPY and USD/CAD currency pairs are showing moderate gains following yesterday’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve. As expected, the American central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged. However, the tone of the accompanying statement and Jerome Powell’s comments were perceived by the market as less dovish than anticipated. Fed officials reaffirmed their willingness to maintain current rates for a longer period until there is clear evidence of easing inflationary pressure. The Fed Chair also noted that recent macroeconomic data does not provide sufficient grounds to begin a rate-cutting cycle in the coming months. These signals supported the US dollar and contributed to corrective moves in major currency pairs.

The USD/JPY pair has strengthened towards the 144.00 mark, reflecting the dollar’s overall resilience amid rising US bond yields. However, market participants remain cautious due to the potential for intervention by Japanese monetary authorities should the yen weaken further. The USD/CAD pair is trading above 1.38, still influenced by moderately weak oil prices and steady demand for the dollar.

Today, investor focus turns to the Bank of England’s meeting, where no change in the base rate is expected. However, the key market driver will likely be the tone of the regulator’s accompanying statement. Additional volatility may be triggered by Friday’s Canadian employment data release, which could significantly impact the Canadian dollar’s performance.

USD/JPY

Yesterday’s Fed meeting allowed USD/JPY buyers to find support just above 142.00 and push the pair more than 100 pips higher. Technical analysis suggests a potential continuation of the upward move towards the 146.00–145.30 area, as several bullish candlestick patterns have formed on the daily timeframe — including a "piercing line" on 22 April and a "bullish engulfing" pattern on 7 May.

The following news events could influence USD/JPY price action:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Unit Labour Costs
• Today at 20:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate

USD/CAD

Unlike USD/JPY, the USD/CAD pair has not shown a confident upward trend. Buyers managed to hold the pair above 1.3800, but daily volatility remains extremely low. Should the 1.3820–1.3800 zone become established as support, a move towards 1.3900 could follow. Conversely, a break below the multi-day support at 1.3750 may trigger a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.

The following events could affect USD/CAD pricing:

• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada Financial System Review
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada Employment Change
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada Unemployment Rate

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8482; (P) 0.8502; (R1) 0.8523; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral again with current recovery. Break of 0.8539 resistance will indicate that fall from 0.8737 has completed as a correction, after defending 55 D EMA (now at 0.8462). Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retest 0.8737 resistance. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will suggest that whole rise from 0.8221 has already complete and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) should have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2024 low). Rise from 0.8221 is likely reversing the whole fall. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8472 resistance turned support holds. However, firm break of 0.8472 will argue that the down trend hasn't completed yet.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7442; (P) 1.7533; (R1) 1.7679; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with current recovery. On the upside, firm break of 1.7886 resistance will argue that fall from 1.8553 has completed as a correction at 1.7380. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.8554. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.7428) will target 61.8% retracement at 1.6953.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.01; (P) 162.52; (R1) 163.13; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point, and further rise remains mildly in favor. On the upside, above 164.61 will resume the rise from 154.77 to 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 158.27 at 167.66. However, sustained break of 161.68 will turn bias back to the downside for 158.27 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.50; (P) 191.09; (R1) 191.74; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 189.97 support intact, further rise is favor. Above 193.72 will resume the rally from 184.35 and target 195.95 resistance next. However, firm break of 189.97 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9278; (P) 0.9333; (R1) 0.9365; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.9445 will resume the rebound from 0.9218, either as a corrective move or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. However, break of 0.9274 will suggest that that recovery has completed, and bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3789; (P) 1.3814; (R1) 1.3864; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is neutral for the moment. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.3903 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.3749, ahead of 1.3727 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.4150 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3749 at 1.4147).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4150 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6392; (P) 0.6454; (R1) 0.6486; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 0.6511 will resume the rise from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6364 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6511 at 0.6283.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) holds, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.81; (P) 143.40; (R1) 144.43; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Rebound from 139.87 could extend through 145.90. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12 holds, in case of another bounce. On the downside, firm break of 141.96 will argue that rebound from 139.87 has completed as a corrective move. Retest of 139.87 should then be seen next in this case.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.