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Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer Dropped More-Than-Forecasted In October
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.35% against the CHF and closed at 1.0053.
On the data front, Switzerland's KOF economic barometer declined to a level of 100.1 in October, more than market expectations for fall to a level of 101.0. In the previous month, the index had recorded a revised reading of 102.3.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0056, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.0024, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9992. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0073, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0090.
Trading trend in the Swiss Franc today will be determined by the release of Switzerland's ZEW expectations survey for October, slated to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3091; (P) 1.3120; (R1) 1.3141; More...
No change in USD/CAD's outlook. Despite diminishing upside momentum, with 1.2969 support intact, further rise is expected. The choppy decline from 1.2285 should have completed 1.2781 already. Rise from 1.2781 should target 1.3225 resistance to confirm this bullish case, and pave the way to 1.3385 next. However, break of 1.2969 will mix up the outlook again and turn bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.
Loonie Trading Lower In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.11% against the CAD and closed at 1.3117.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3125, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3102, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3078. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3148, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3170.
Looking forward, investors would keep an eye on Canada’s gross domestic product for August, slated to release later in the day.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Aussie Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.59% against the USD and closed at 0.7101.
LME Copper prices declined 1.39% or $124.0/MT to $6136.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.4% or $28.5/MT to $1952.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7085, with the AUD trading 0.23% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
Earlier today, in Australia, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a yearly basis in 3Q18, in line with market expectations. The CPI had advanced 2.1% in the prior quarter. Additionally, private sector credit climbed 0.4% on a monthly basis in September, meeting market expectations. In the prior month, private sector credit had registered a rise of 0.5%.
Elsewhere, in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, the NBS manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 in October, more than market expectations. The NBS manufacturing PMI had recorded a level of 50.8 in the prior month.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7064, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7043. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7114, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7143.
Trading trend in the Aussie today is expected to be determined by Australia’s AiG performance of manufacturing index and the CBA manufacturing PMI, both for October, slated to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7067; (P) 0.7094; (R1) 0.7135; More...
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as sideway trading continue inside 0.7020/7159. As long as 0.7159 resistance holds, near term outlook will remain bearish and further decline is expected. Break of 0.7020 extend the down trend from 0.8135 towards 0.6826 low. However, firm break of 0.7159 will be a first sign of trend reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7314 resistance.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.
Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.56% against the USD and closed at USD1224.40 per ounce, amid strength in the greenback.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1218.10, with gold trading 0.51% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1212.90, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1207.70. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1226.90, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1235.70.
The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver slightly declined against the USD and closed at USD14.47 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 14.37, with silver trading 0.69% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.31, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.25. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.48, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.59.
The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Lower, Ahead Of EIA’s Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.30% against the USD and closed at USD66.45 per barrel, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories advanced by 5.7 million barrels to 430.7 million barrels in the week ended 26 October.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 66.39, with oil trading 0.09% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 65.39, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 64.39. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 67.32, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 68.26.
Going ahead, investors will keep a close watch on the weekly crude inventories data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later in the day.
Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.56; (P) 112.83; (R1) 113.34; More..
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment as rebound from 111.37 is in progress. Corrective fall from 114.54 should have completed at 111.37 already. Rise from there should extend to 114.54/73 key resistance zone. On the downside, break of 112.56 will possibly extend the correction from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 before completion.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0022; (P) 1.0038; (R1) 1.0067; More...
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 1.0067 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger rise from 0.9186 and should target 1.0342 key resistance next. In any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9954 resistance turned support holds. However, break of 0.9954 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 0.9848 support and below.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.














