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Aussie Extends Its Losses In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.05% against the USD and closed at 0.7285 on Friday.
LME Copper prices rose 2.4% or $146.0/MT to $6203.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.8% or $15.5/MT to $2034.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7269, with the AUD trading 0.22% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7253, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7238. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7294, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7320.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.82% against the USD and closed at USD1202.10 per ounce on Friday, amid strength in US dollar.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1200.50, with gold trading 0.13% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1192.40, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1184.30. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1212.20, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1223.90.
The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6097; (P) 1.6137; (R1) 1.6159; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.6175 will suggest that the pull back from 1.6353 is completed and turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.6353. On the downside, break of 1.6051 will extend the correction. But downside should be contained well above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 1.5888) to bring rise resumption.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5886 resistance turned support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.
Silver: White Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.17% against the USD and closed at USD14.33 per ounce on Friday, tracking losses in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.24, with silver trading 0.66% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.12, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.01. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.41, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.59.
The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1217; (P) 1.1264; (R1) 1.1306; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. In case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from key support zone of 1.1154/98 to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.1342 will reaffirm the case of bullish reversal and target 1.1452 resistance for confirmation. However, sustained break of 1.1154/98 will carry larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1207) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading On A Stronger Footing In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 1.03% against the USD and closed at USD70.89 per barrel on Friday, after Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs fell by 1 to 866 in the week ended 21 September.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 71.53, with oil trading 0.90% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 70.41, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 69.28. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 72.23, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 72.92.
Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1721; (P) 1.1762; (R1) 1.1792; More.....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. We we maintain our view that 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 should limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1649 minor support will be the first signal that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1525 support first. Break will confirm and bring retest of 1.1300 low. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958 before completion.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we'd expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2999; (P) 1.3138; (R1) 1.3221; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on downside for 1.3042 resistance turned support. The corrective rise from 1.2661 could have completed at 1.3297, ahead of 1.3316 key fibonacci level. Break of 1.3042 will bring deeper fall to 1.2784. Break there will argue that larger down trend from 1.4376 is resuming for a new low below 1.2661. On the upside, break of 1.3297 is now needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9551; (P) 0.9575; (R1) 0.9609; More...
A temporary low is in place at 0.9541 with today's recovery. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. In case of another fall, we'd look for bottoming sign at 0.9523 fibonacci level to bring rebound. ON the upside, break of 0.9651 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and target 0.9757 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.9523 would pave the way to retest 0.9186 low.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and possibly below. But for now, we don't expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.36; (P) 112.62; (R1) 112.80; More...
A temporary top is in place at 112.86 with today's retreat. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first, for some consolidations. Near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 112.86 will target 113.17 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.
















