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GBPUSD Minor Pullback On Brexit Headlines

The British pound has moved slightly lower against the US dollar after EU trade officials said they would not be issuing any further statements on Brexit. The GBPUSD pair has reversed from the 1.3168 level but remains intraday bullish while trading above the 1.3040 level. Buyers will attempt to move price towards the 1.3205 level, while short-term sellers need to break the 1.3100 level.

The GBPUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 1.3100 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3168 and 1.3205 levels.

If the GBPUSD pair moves below the 1.3100 level, key support is now found at the 1.3060 and 1.3040 levels.

Chinese Foreign Ministry: US showed no sincerity or good will for talks

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in a regular press briefing that "China has always emphasized that the only correct way to resolve the China-U.S. trade issue is via talks and consultations held on an equal, sincere and mutually respectful basis. But he criticized that "at this time, everything the United States does does not give the impression of sincerity or goodwill."

He added the details on retaliation will be released at appropriate time, without giving any further information.

EU Tusk laid down three key Brexit issues to focus on at Salzburg meeting

Brexit will be an important topic in the upcoming European Council meeting in Salzburg on September 19 and 20. European Council President Donald Tusk laid out three key issues to focus on, in a statement:

  • First, we should reach a common view on the nature and overall shape of the joint political declaration about our future partnership with the UK.
  • Second, we will discuss how to organise the final phase of the Brexit talks, including the possibility of calling another European Council in November.
  • Third, we should reconfirm the need for a legally operational backstop on Ireland, so as to be sure that there will be no hard border in the future.

Tusk said a no deal scenario is "still quite possible". But, "if we all act responsibly, we can avoid a catastrophe."

Separately, UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab told Spiegel newspaper that Prime Minister Theresa May's Chequers plan are "so far the only proposals that guarantee smooth trade between Britain and the EU and take account of the specific problems in Ireland." And he saw "no other credible alternative, either from here or from the EU side."

Raab also added that "We have already made extensive compromises.. We have shown ourselves to be very pragmatic and ambitious. Now the ball is in the European Union's court."

GOLD Is Waiting For The Fundamental Driver In Range Bound Mode

At the moment there is a slight risk-on with equities markets, despite this, investors are buying the dip on Gold, perhaps as a way to diversify for a potential downside to risky assets such as equities, properties, commodities. There is a constant pressure caused by trade concerns that is potentially limiting the gains. The price is waiting for a fundamental driver, and we can clearly see the range bound market at this point. Yesterday, there was no news that could have moved the USD, so the Gold remained relatively calm. Today again, there will be no major news for the USD, so the price could still be range bound. Tomorrow will be another story as there are a lot of data releases that might move the Gold market, such as Building Permits and Crude Oil inventories.

Technically, Gold is trapped between two trend lines with clear highs and lows that pinpoint the current range bound market. Any fundamental driver for the USD or eventually EUR could break above or below, signalling the potential move. Traders should be focused on breakouts now. If we take a look at Admiral Correlation Trader add-on, we can see a positive correlation between the EURUSD and Gold. A move above 1212 could target 1220 and eventually 1233, while the move below 1187 should be aiming for 1180 and 1173.

Short Pivot Lines - Daily Support and Resistance

Long Pivot Lines - Weekly Support and Resistance

POC - POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect the price to react - aka the entry zone)

 

EUR/USD – Euro Shrugs As Trump Fires Next Tariff Salvo

EUR/USD is unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1683, up 0.01% on the day. It's another quiet day on the data front, with no Eurozone indicators. In the U.S, there are two minor events which are unlikely to affect EUR/USD. On Wednesday, the U.S releases building permits and housing starts.

There was rampant speculation that another round of tariffs in the U.S-China trade war was in the offing, and President Trump has delivered the goods. On Monday, Trump imposed tariffs of 10% on some $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and threatened further action if China retaliated. Why did the currency markets not react? Investors were braced for a move by Trump, and may be sighing in relief that the tariff was set at 10% rather than at 25%. One senior economist summed up Trump's most recent salvo as “bad but manageable”. However, if the Chinese retaliate and the U.S takes further measures, this would likely shake up the currency markets and boost the U.S dollar.

In the U.S, last week's consumer spending and inflation data was a disappointment. Retail sales in August dropped to 0.1%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. This missed the estimate of 0.4%. Core retail sales followed a similar trend, falling from 0.6% to o.3%. It missed the forecast of 0.5%. These key consumer spending numbers come on the heels of CPI, which came in at just 0.2% and missed the estimate of 0.3%. There was better news from UoM Consumer Sentiment in September, which jumped to 100.8, above the estimate of 96.7 points, This marked the first time that the indicator cracked the 100-level since March.

Asia Closing Market Notes: Riding The Risk Rollercoaster

The markets are riding the risk roller coaster as headline overload has been dominating the Asian session.

First, the USTR tariff announcement had a bit more sting than expected due to the graduated settings 10 per cent now then up to 25 per cent in January on 200 bln. Which suggests the US is looking to talk but also not the President is not willing to cede the upper hand.

Then it was a matter of confusion reigns as CHINA SAYS COOPERATION IS ONLY RIGHT CHOICE FOR CHINA, followed by CHINA LIKELY WILL NOT SEND TRADE DELEGATION TO WASHINGTON, which tugged risk every which way but loose and left trader chasing their tail most of the session.

Frankly, I’m still surprised by the level of complacency, but then again, this escalation was so telegraphed suggesting today’s playbook could not have been scripted any better. But I’m keenly focused in USDCNH and China equities as the market’s composure surely belies the groundswell that’s yet to come.

Oil markets are in a tug of war as Iran sanctions will continue to provide near-term support, while discussions around global demand in the wake of this morning tariffs and speculation of further OPEC supply increases should temper upside ambitions. But in the absence of any OPEC supply shift, Iran and Venezuela shortfall should ultimately push prices higher, at least for the near term.

Gold continues to trade in tandem with the USD but, but with traders still debating the next USD direction we could remain in $1190- $1210 range.

ON the currency front, The Euro is showing a spring step but failed again at 1.1720. The August high 1.1730 remains critical while significant support should come in around 1.1620. Frankly, the EURUSD is where the near-term US dollar (X JPY) battle lines are forming.

Draghi has shifted less dovish, and fear index around Italian risk is easing., but we still have that unmistakably hawkish Fed here former dove like Lael Brainard continues to sound unmistakably hawkish every time she takes the podium.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin In Battle With 50-Day MA

Bears are taking the control back

BTC is consolidating on an intraday time frame; 4-hour chart. This consolidation is taking place near the end of the symmetrical triangle pattern. These patterns usually break in the direction of the trend. By looking at the chart, one can say that there is no clear trend because the price has been moving in a sideway pattern and the range is $9600 to $5741.

However, when we compare this to the 50 and 100-day moving averages, then it becomes more prominent that the trend that we have is skewed to the downside. The 50-day moving average is shown in the yellow colour and the 100-day moving average is shown in green colour. The 50-day moving average is trading below the 100-day moving average which is another sign which confirms that the trend is biased- bears are in control of the price.

The Balance of Power shows that the bulls have lost control and bears are taking control. The RSI is trading above the upward trend line and as long as it stays above this, the bulls may be able to fight their way up

The support line is shown in bright green colour and it is the lowest point from 29-July. The resistance is shown by the red line and this is the highest high formed on the 5th of September.

Special Report: Shots Fired- Trade War Is On

Trump has declared a prolong war on China and once again he is not concerned about the consequences.

The world's two biggest economies China and the United States are tangled deeply into a trade war. President of the United States of America has ranched up the tensions further by declaring that he is ready to impose another 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese goods in the coming week and this tariffs will be more than double next year. Basically, Trump has declared a prolong war on China and once again he is not concerned about the consequences.

This is obviously not the first time the president is playing this kind of hardball with China. The US has imposed tariffs on China twice this year and there has been a tit-for-tat reaction from China. However, this time, the president had adopted an even tougher stance and he has left no room for such tit-for-tat reaction.

Mr Trump has announced if Beijing hits back with counter-tariffs then the reaction will be even harsher from the US. Previously, China has vowed that it will go after the US farmers and industry. In addition to this, Beijing also said that it will target liquified gas to aircraft and total number can stand at $60 billion in tariffs on the US. Nonetheless, Trump has factored this element in a recent statement and he is determined to take immediate action against China if the country retaliates. That would result in further tariffs on about $267 for Chinese imports.

Just to fill in the blanks, to total US import of Chinese goods in 2017 was $506 billion and total Chinese imports of US goods in 2017 was $130 billion. So, there is no way that China can win this war by playing the dollar for dollar tariffs game alone, it would have to use other weapons at its disposal such as putting tariffs on US services or making the trading environment difficult for US companies to operate in China. Also, worth mentioning here is that the trump administration has already imposed tariffs on Chinese goods earlier year in July and August and both times china as retaliated bu equal tariffs on the US.

China cannot be strong-armed by the US and this was the message from the vice chairman of China's securities regulatory commission. If the US goes ahead in full steam and puts tariffs on all Chinese products, the economy may lose up to 0.7% of GDP as a direct result of this. This isn't the most significant number and some of this loss in GDP will be covered by increasing and developing new relationships.

But in the short term, there is no doubt that the impact on the sentiment is going to be far larger than the actual impact on the GDP. This increase in tariffs will have an impact on Amercian consumers as the cost of their everyday living will start to soar.

EURUSD Analysis: Will Stay At 1.1680 Mark

The European Single Currency appreciated 0.85% against the US Dollar since Monday's session. On Tuesday morning, the currency exchange rate was supported by the 55-hour simple moving average to surge upwards towards the 38.20% Fibo and the weekly R1 at the 1.1722 mark.

In regards to the near future, most likely, the rate should move downwards due to the resistance of the weekly R1 and the 38.20% Fibo. It is expected that the rate should trade at the 1.1680 level during the day.

However, the rate might ignore the resistance of the weekly R1 at the 1.1722 mark and the 38.20% Fibo to pass through them to trade at 1.1760 level on Tuesday.

GBPUSD Analysis: Retraces Back To 1.3050 Level

The British pound appreciated 0.77 % against the US Dollar since Monday's session. During Tuesday morning hours, the currency exchange pair broke the upper boundary of the medium ascending pattern to trade near the weekly R1 at the 1.3178 mark and the monthly R1 at the 1.3185 mark.

The 161.80% Fibo combined with the weekly R1 and the monthly R1 should retrace the British pound back into the medium pattern to trade near the weekly pivot point at the 1.3050 level during Tuesday's trading session.

However, the rate might take supports of the technical indicators to surge near the upper line of the large descending channel at the 1.3225 level.