Sample Category Title

The EUR/USD has made a retrace towards 88.6 of the latest intraday swing. 1.1540-55 is the POC zone and as long as 1.1495 holds we might see 1.1650. Have in mind that the EUR also might reject from 1.1520 too. A bullish close above 1.1606 is needed for 1.1650.

W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect the price to react - aka the entry zone)

The Australian dollar hit new multi-month low at 0.7143 on Wednesday, on fresh weakness that emerged after short-lived rally on upbeat Australian GDP data (annualized GDP was up 3.4% in Q2 vs 2.8% f/c and 3.1% in Q1). Post-data spike to session high at 0.7217 proved to be just positioning for fresh downside as broader bears already cracked strong supports at 0.7160 zone. Stronger greenback on persisting concerns about US trade conflicts with major economies, as well as signs that the RBA will remain on hold despite growing economy, continue to weigh on Australian dollar. Eventual clear break below 0.7160 pivot would open way towards psychological 0.70 support and could target 0.6906 (07 Sep 2015 low) in extension. However, further hesitation at key 0.7160 support zone cannot be ruled out, as slow stochastic is oversold on daily chart, but limited upticks could be expected as other studies are in firm bearish setup and sentiment remains negative.

Res: 0.7200, 0.7235, 0.7256, 0.7280
Sup: 0.7143, 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6906

Yesterday, the US dollar strengthened against currency majors. Demand for the American currency is still high due to concerns about international trade and instability in the markets of developing countries. The dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session in the positive zone (+0.31%). Additional support was provided by positive statistics. In August, the index of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector counted to 61.3, which was higher than market expectations of 57.6.

Today, Bank of Canada interest rate decision will be the key event. Experts forecast that the regulator will keep the interest rate at the previous level of 1.50%. It should be noted that more than 75% of financial market participants expect that the Central Bank will tighten monetary policy in October. We recommend paying attention to the comments by the Bank of Canada representatives.

Oil quotes are declining. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $69.15 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the major US stock indices closed in the negative zone: #SPY (-0.17%), #DIA (-0.05%), #QQQ (-0.43%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield shows positive dynamics. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 2.89-2.90%.

The news feed on 05.09.2018:

A number of indices of economic activity in the Eurozone at 11:00 (GMT+3:00);

The index of economic activity in the UK services sector at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);

Bank of Canada interest rate decision at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.79; (P) 143.09; (R1) 143.59; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. Rebound from 139.88 should have completed at 145.67. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 139.88 low first. Break will target 139.29/47 key support zone. On the upside, above 144.20 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 145.67 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. Focus remains on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).

Extension of Tuesday's rally spiked to 111.71 on Wednesday, on probe through pivotal daily cloud top barrier (111.57). Break was not sustained so far, as the price returned below cloud top, but scope for eventual break and close above cloud exists. Strong dollar and bullish techs are supportive, with extension higher also expected to trigger a number of stops parked above, which would accelerate bulls through next pivots at 111.83/87 (29 Aug high/Fibo 61.8% of 113.17/109.77 descend). Extended consolidation under cloud top should be contained above rising daily Tenkan-sen (111.25) to keep bullish bias intact.

Res: 111.57, 111.71, 111.87, 112.15
Sup: 111.35, 111.25, 111.08, 110.95

Cable moves lower in Early Europe and reverses the most of 1.2810/59 recovery, offsetting positive signal from Tuesday's hammer candle, formed after failure to clearly break 20SMA pivot (1.2840). Persisting negative sentiment on Brexit concerns is additionally boosted by firmer dollar. Fresh weakness through 20SMA looks for renewed attack at pivotal support at 1.2807 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2661/1.3043 upleg) which contained Tuesday's spike lower. Close below here is needed to confirm reversal and lower top at 1.3043 (30 Aug high) and spark further bearish acceleration. Weakening momentum on daily chart is crossing below its 7SMA, after formation of bearish divergence and reinforcing negative signals. Daily MA's are turning to full bearish setup and support scenario. Sustained break below 1.2800 zone (Fibo support / 24 Aug trough) would open 1.2751 (Fibo 76.4%) and unmask key support at 1.2661 (15 Aug low). Converging 5/10/30SMA's mark solid resistance at 1.2900 zone, which is expected to cap upticks and maintains bearish bias.

Res: 1.2870, 1.2900, 1.2933, 1.2953
Sup: 1.2807, 1.2751, 1.2697, 1.2661

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.56; (P) 128.88; (R1) 129.45; More....

EUR/JPY breached 38.2% retracement of 124.89 to 130.86 at 128.57 but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 128.57 will argue that rebound from 124.89 has completed, and it's the third leg of consolidation pattern from 124.61. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 124.61/89. On the upside, above 129.83 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness. And intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 130.86 and above.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY once again rebounded ahead of 124.08 key resistance turned support. It's also held well above long term trend line from 109.03 (2016 low). The development argues that such rise from 109.03 might not be over yet. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 124.61 at 132.56 will pave the way to retest 137.49 high. But, firm break of 124.08 will argue that whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 next.

The Euro accelerates lower in early European trading after recovery attempts from Tuesday’s spike low at 1.1530 during late US session on Tuesday and Asian session on Wednesday, stalled near 55SMA (1.1615).

Fresh weakness offsets positive signal from Wednesday’s strong downside rejection and failure to close below 1.1568 pivot (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1300/1.1733 ascend).

The Euro remains at the back foot, pressured by stronger dollar on safe-haven buying on uncertainty ahead of continuation of US-Canada talks about new trade agreement, which so far did not result in any deal, as well as growing fears about escalation of US-China trade conflict.

South-heading 14-d momentum is attempting to create bear-cross and supports negative scenario, but daily MA’s are still in mixed setup and slow stochastic turned sideways on oversold zone border, providing no clear direction signal for now.

Fresh weakness is supported by falling hourly cloud but needs clear break below cracked Fibo 38.2% support at 1.1568 and 4-hr cloud base at 1.153) to generate bearish signal, confirmation of which requires break and close below 20SMA (1.1538).

Alternative scenario needs lift above converged and parallel-running 55/10SMA’s (1.1615/28) to neutralize existing downside threats and shift near-term focus higher.

German and EU services PMI data and EU retail sales are key events of the European session today.

Res: 1.1615, 1.1627, 1.1660, 1.1690
Sup: 1.1563, 1.1538, 1.1517, 1.1479

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8982; (P) 0.9009; (R1) 0.9051; More...

Outlook in EUR/GBP remains bullish as it's staying in near term rising channel. Intraday bias also remains on the upside for retesting 0.9097 resistance first. Break there will resume larger rally from 0.8620 towards 0.9305 high. On the downside, however, break of 0.8937 support should have near term channel support firmly taken out. And that will indicate completion of rise from 0.8620 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). The corrective structure of the fall from 0.9305 to 0.8620 is raising the chance that rise from 0.8312 to 0.9305 is an impulsive move. But we're not too confident on it yet. In any case, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6067; (P) 1.6112; (R1) 1.6181; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.6171 temporary top. Some consolidations would be seen. But retreat should be contained by 1.5886 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 100% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6216 will extend the larger up trend to 161.8% projection at 1.6596, which is close to another key resistance level at 1.6587.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew strong support from 55 week EMA and rebounded. And the development argues that medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6189 will target a test on 1.6587 (2015 high). On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will now be the first sign of medium term reversal, and will bring a test on 1.5271 key support for confirmation.