Sample Category Title

EURUSD (1.1553): The EURUSD currency pair closed on a bearish note on Thursday. The decline came following the rally in the previous days. The common currency closed back at the recently cleared level of 1.1540. With the daily Stochastics printing a bearish divergence, we expect further declines in the near term. For the moment, the EURUSD is likely to maintain its sideways trend within 1.1626 - 1.1540 region. A breakout from this range could trigger further gains or losses.

The U.S. dollar was seen recovering from the losses on Thursday. The reversal came following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.

Economic data on the day showed that the ECB officials were concerned about the risks of the uncertainty from the global trade policies. However, officials remained fairly optimistic that growth would remain firm.

Economic data saw the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMI from the Eurozone. While the flash service PMI was in line with expectations, manufacturing activity showed a slight slowdown. In the U.S. new home sales rose 627k missing estimates of 643k. The previous month’s figures were revised higher to show 638k print.

The economic data for the day will see the release of the German final GDP figures for the second quarter. Economists forecast no change with the German GDP expected to rise 0.5% during the three months ending June.

Later, in the NY trading session, the U.S. durable goods orders report will be released. Core durable goods are forecast to rise 0.5% by following a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Headline durable goods orders are expected to show a 0.7% decline during the month. This marks a 0.8% increase in the previous month.

The annual Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to start off today. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak today at the event.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5814; (P) 1.5875; (R1) 1.5986; More....

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside with 1.5836 minor support intact. Current rally should target 61.8% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.5981 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6216, which is close to 1.6189 high. On the downside, below 1.5836 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD. But there is no confirmation of completion. Break of 1.5888 will likely target 1.6189 and above to resume the medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low). This will be the favored case as long as 1.5271 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8976; (P) 0.9001; (R1) 0.9031; More...

EUR/GBP rises to as high as 0.9026 but it's still limited below 0.9030 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 0.9030 might still extend with another fall. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 0.8854 support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.9043 will pave the way to retest 0.9305 key resistance. However, sustained break of 0.8854 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). The corrective structure of the fall from 0.9305 to 0.8620 is raising the chance that rise from 0.8312 to 0.9305 is an impulsive move. But we're not too confident on it yet. In any case, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7250

Our preference Long positions above 0.7250 with targets at 0.7300 & 0.7315 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.7250 look for further downside with 0.7235 & 0.7220 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows upside momentum.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1361; (P) 1.1384; (R1) 1.1405; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 1.1418 temporary top. As long as 1.1329 minor support holds, further rise is expected in the cross. On the upside, break of 1.1418 will target 1.1489 support turned resistance. Decisive break will add to the case of trend reversal ahead of key support zone between 1.1154/98. On the downside, below 1.1329 minor support, however, will suggests completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1242 low. And focus will be back on 1.1154/98 key support zone.

In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1173) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3055

Our preference Long positions above 1.3055 with targets at 1.3125 & 1.3155 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.3055 look for further downside with 1.3025 & 1.3000 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further advance.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9830

Our preference Long positions above 0.9830 with targets at 0.9890 & 0.9915 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.9830 look for further downside with 0.9805 & 0.9785 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Pivot (invalidation): 111.00

Our preference Long positions above 111.00 with targets at 111.75 & 112.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 111.00 look for further downside with 110.70 & 110.35 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2845

Our preference Short positions below 1.2845 with targets at 1.2780 & 1.2750 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.2845 look for further upside with 1.2885 & 1.2910 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.