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USDJPY - The pair extended its upside pressure on Wednesday and was seen following through higher during Thursday trading session. On the downside, support lies at the 110.50 level where a break if seen will aim at the 110.00 level. A cut through here will turn focus to the 109.50 level and possibly lower towards the 109.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 111.50 level. Further out, we envisage a possible move towards the 112.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 112.50 level with a turn above here aiming at the 113.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further upside pressure.

Here are the latest developments in global markets:

FOREX: The dollar’s index versus a basket of currencies continued to trade higher on Thursday and is looking set to put an end to the six-day streak of declines, its longest since February. The US currency is posting gains across the board, though excluding the Aussie, they’re not sizable in nature. Euro/dollar and pound/dollar are both lower by around 0.1%, with dollar/yen up by 0.2%, not far below the 111 handle. Flash PMI prints for August out of the eurozone were the most notable releases during morning European trading. The manufacturing PMI undershooting expectations and reentering a path of declines – after rising in July for the first time in six months – perhaps generated most attention out of the prints. The euro posted some modest losses as the data were made public. Elsewhere, the Aussie remains in focus as it continues to underperform on the back of political uncertainty clouding Australia; aussie/dollar is down by more than 0.6% and below the 0.73 mark. According to some analysts, developments in Australia may have acted as a catalyst for bringing the US currency’s safe-haven allure back to the fore.

STOCKS: At 1057 GMT, European equities were moving higher for the most part, though only moderately so. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up by 0.1% and the blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was marginally higher. The UK’s FTSE 100 was flat, while the German DAX was down by 0.1% and France’s CAC 40 traded higher by 0.1%. On the list of the Dax’s lead underperformers were automakers BMW (-1.4%), Daimler (-1.2%) and Volkswagen (-0.8%), with trade-sensitive auto stocks overall underperforming on the back of tariff fears as the US and China implemented additional levies on one another on Thursday. Futures tracking the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were little changed. Alibaba will be reporting quarterly results soon; before the opening bell on Wall Street.

COMMODITIES: WTI was steady at $67.89 per barrel after surging on Wednesday following the EIA’s weekly report which showed the biggest crude stockpile drop since late July. Brent crude traded 0.15% lower at $74.67/barrel. In precious metals, gold was 0.3% down, at $1,190.80/ounce. The greenback’s weakness in previous days allowed the dollar-denominated metal to move above its lowest since January 2017 of $1,159.96 hit last week, but USD strength in today’s trading is again weighing on gold prices.

Day ahead: ECB minutes due; Jackson Hole and other risk events on the horizon

A few releases remain pending on Thursday, though perhaps barring the ECB’s official record from its latest meeting, they seem unlikely to spur considerable movements in the currency markets. In light of this, the attention turns to the Jackson Hole summit, any updates on Brexit and the Sino-US trade deliberations, as well as the political situation in Australia.

The ECB’s meeting minutes pertaining to its July meeting will be hitting the markets at 1130 GMT. Commentary on trade, the trajectory of inflation and the timing the Bank plans to start normalizing rates will be attracting attention. Regarding the latter, the ECB’s guidance of keeping rates steady “at least through the summer of 2019” was a topic of great interest back in July. Mario Draghi, the central bank’s chief, said in the press conference following the meeting that this translates to no earlier than September, something which was viewed as dovish by investors and thus led to euro weakness. If the record show a considerable number of members deviating from this view, pushing for a hike earlier in time, then the euro is likely to build on gains from previous days that allowed it to distance itself from the 14-month low of $1.1297 hit in mid-August.

Also euro-related, preliminary eurozone consumer confidence data will be hitting the markets at 1400 GMT; the relevant index tracking consumer sentiment is expected to remain in negative territory for the third straight month, falling to -0.7 from July’s -0.6.

Out of the US, new home sales for July and Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI for August are the releases attracting most interest, though it bears mention that the two generally do not act as major market movers. The manufacturing PMI due at 1345 GMT is anticipated to ease a bit relative to July’s reading of 55.3, though still comfortably remain in expansion territory above 50, specifically at 55.0. New home sales are projected to grow by 2.2% m/m after declining by 5.3% in June to reach their lowest since late 2017 in a sign that the housing market is slowing; the reading will be made public at 1400 GMT. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims data are also due out of the US at 1230 GMT.

A risk event taking place in the US from August 23-25 is the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The summit’s overall theme is “Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy”. Influential central bankers and finance ministers from some of the world’s largest economies will be hosted at the event, with a speech by Fed chief Powell set to take place tomorrow; Trump’s recent criticism of the Fed and rate normalization policies in a way renders the speech all the more important.

Other themes at play are Brexit, trade discussions, NAFTA developments and political uncertainty in Australia, where the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, may face another leadership vote on Friday following the resignation of three of the government’s senior ministers. In the meantime, politics are at play in the US as well with potential negative ramifications for President Trump; news on this front, though, has thus far been largely shrugged off my markets.

Lastly, it should be kept in mind that during Friday’s Asian session, New Zealand will be on the receiving end of trade data for July and Japan will see the release of inflation prints for the same month. The relevant figures out of the two countries are due at 2245 GMT and 2330 GMT correspondingly.

UK government published a collection of documents on "How to prepare if the UK leaves the EU with no deal". Topics covered include applying for EU-funded programs, civil nuclear and nuclear research, farming, Importing and exporting, labelling products and making them safe, money and tax, regulating medicines and medical equipment, state aid, studying in the UK or EU, workplace rights.

Brexit minister Dominic Raab said he wanted to make sure Britain "goes from strength to strength, even in the unlikely event that we do not reach a negotiated deal with the European Union." Nonetheless, Raab remained "confidence that a good deal is within out sights".

Thursday August 23: Five things the markets are talking about

The U.S dollar has rallied for the first time in six-sessions as the markets waits for rhetoric from Jackson Hole where a meeting of global central bankers begins this evening.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve signalled a ‘no change’ to its pace of monetary policy tightening, allowing the greenback to climb against most of its peers.

U.S Treasuries are steady after the Fed indicated they are prepared to increase rates again if the economy stays on track. Yesterday, the Fed minutes point to another interest-rate increase next month.

“Many participants suggested that if incoming data continued to support their current economic outlook, it would likely soon be appropriate to take another step in removing policy accommodation,” according to the minutes. Most officials signalled they are keen to raise rates to a level that “neither spurs nor slows growth,” – the so-called “neutral rate.”

Alongside Trump’s legal woes, the market is also trying to gage the imposition of new tariffs between the U.S and China in the midst of talks aimed at averting the worsening trade conflict.

On tap: Jackson Hole symposium begins.

1. Political woes pressure stocks

Global equities traded mixed overnight amid speculation U.S President Trump’s political position could be threatened by his current legal woes and as fresh Sino-U.S tariffs took effect.

In Japan, the Nikkei edged a tad higher after a weak yen (¥110.89) supported sentiment, however, German profit warnings dragged down auto stocks and tire makers. The Nikkei share average ended +0.2% higher, while the broader Topix was unchanged.

Down-under, Aussie shares fell overnight, as uncertainty over whom the country’s next PM would be distressed investor confidence, with losses in financials capping gains in resources stocks. The S&P ASX 200 index lost -0.3%. In S. Korea, the Kospi stock index advanced +0.4% overnight, even though fresh U.S-China tariffs weighed on the market.

In China, stock markets ended higher, as investors mostly looked past new U.S and Chinese tariffs that mark the latest escalation of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The Shanghai Composite index ended +0.4% higher, while the country’s blue-chip index gained +0.3%.

In Europe, regional bourses trade slightly higher in quiet trade with trade tensions and mixed European PMI’s figures (see below) capping gains.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘black’ (+0.1%).

Indices: Stoxx600 0.2% at 385.1, FTSE 0.3% at 7591, DAX +0.1% at 12391, CAC-40 +0.3% at 5435, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 9617, FTSE MIB +0.1% at 20714, SMI +0.2% at 9066 S&P 500 Futures +0.1%

2. Oil slips on tariffs

Oil prices have slipped as the U.S-China trade dispute outweighs the bullish impact of a decline in U.S crude inventories.

Brent crude oil is down -30c a barrel at +$74.48, while U.S light is -10c lower at $+67.76.

Note: The trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies has deepened today with the imposition of another +25% tariffs on +$16B worth of each other’s goods.

Bullish for crude was yesterdays data from the EIA which showed that U.S commercial crude oil inventories fell by -5.8M barrels in the week to Aug. 17 to +408.36M barrels.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices are under pressure, falling from their one-week high from yesterday, as intensifying Sino-U.S trade war with another round of tariffs and expectations of higher interest rates support the dollar. Spot gold is down -0.6% at +$1,188.16 an ounce. U.S gold futures are down -0.7% at +$1,194.80.

3. Sovereign yields ease

The Tsy-Bund spread is at +247 bps – the tightest in two-months as the eurozone economy and inflation shows signs of improvement and the market questions how long the U.S. economic strength will last. There is no supply in the eurozone today and the 10-year Bund yield is trading at +0.35%, down -1 bps. Other eurozone bond yields are mostly unchanged, except Italian bonds – the 10-year BTP yield has declined -4 bps to +3.026%.

Elsewhere, the yield on U.S 10-year Treasuries has decreased -1 bps to +2.81%, the lowest in more than three-months. In the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has dipped -1 bps to +1.272%.

4. Dollar finds support

The USD is a tad firmer overnight, breaking a six-day losing streak aided by yesterday’s Fed minutes that signalled another rate rise is coming. Market concerns over the Sino-US trade negotiation is again a pressing issue now that the U.S has implemented another round of tariffs.

EUR/USD (€1.1565) is lower by -0.2%, pressured by mixed Euro manufacturing PMI data.

GBP/USD (£1.2868) is a tad softer as Brexit negotiations continue and the AUD/USD was back below the psychological A$0.73 at A$0.7294 after Australia adjourned its parliament until Sept 10th amid a political leadership crisis. PM Turnbull is seen as unlikely to contest another leadership vote.

Among the biggest currency losers overnight is South Africa’s rand ($14.2920), which slumped after a tweet from U.S President Donald Trump fuelled speculation of possible sanctions against the country.

5. Euro PMI’s signal steady expansion

Flash PMI survey data this morning indicated that the eurozone economy continued to grow this month, albeit with the rate of expansion remaining one of the weakest seen over the past 18-months, while companies’ expectations of future growth slipped to the lowest for nearly two years.

The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite (manufacturing and services) PMI edged a tad higher from 54.3 in July to 54.4 in August.

Digging deeper, the rise signalled a marginal acceleration of output growth during the month. However, the increase in output was the third weakest since January 2017. New order growth picked up marginally, but, was the third weakest since December 2016. A particularly sluggish performance was seen in manufacturing, where new export orders registered the smallest monthly rise for two-years.

Although growth rates improved slightly in manufacturing and services, both remained among the weakest seen for at least 18-months.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned today that ECB must not delay monetary policy normalization. He said, it's " time to begin exiting the very expansionary monetary policy and the non-standard measures, especially considering their possible side effects." And, such normalization process would "take place only gradually over the next few years." That "exactly why it has been so important to actually get the ball rolling without undue delay."

Weidmann added that ECB's projection of 1.7% headline inflation for 2020 is "broadly consistent" with the mandate. And, domestic prices are " likely to intensify as aggregate capacity utilization increases." Therefore, "they will thus counteract waning impetus from other components of the inflation rate, such as energy prices."

EUR/USD has recorded losses in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1564, down 0.27% on the day. In economic news, manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the eurozone softened in July and missed their estimates. In the U.S, unemployment claims are expected to rise to 215 thousand. It’s Day 1 of the Jackson Hole Symposium, a gathering of the heads of major central banks. On Friday, the U.S releases durable goods orders.

Manufacturing PMIs were a sore spot on Thursday, as German and eurozone releases were unexpectedly soft, pulling the euro lower. German Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57.3 to 56.1, while Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell from 55.1 to 54.6 points. Global trade war tensions, as well as political worries in Italy have dampened the economic outlook in the eurozone, and manufacturing is perhaps the most vulnerable sector to the escalating trade war, notably between the U.S and China. Trade tensions continue to persist between the U.S and the EU as well, despite recent talks between senior officials. On Wednesday, President Trump threatened to slap a 25% tariff on all EU imports.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July meeting, at which policymakers maintained the benchmark rate. The minutes noted that the U.S economy remains strong and hinted that the Fed would raise rates in September. However, policymakers added that there plan to continue with gradual rate increases could have to be halted if the global trade war worsened, as the trade war represented a major downside risk to the U.S economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, and investors will be listening carefully. Powell is expected to refer to trade tensions, as well as the fact that inflation and wage growth have lagged, despite a booming U.S economy. The minutes have cemented a rate hike in September, with market odds currently at 96%. The likelihood of a December rate hike stands at 57%.

Notes/Observations

• Major European PMI data mixed in session (Beats: France; Misses: Germany, Euro Zone)
• New trade tariffs kick in as US implement additional $16B worth of imports from China

Asia:

• China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) reiterated stance that was oppose to US tariffs and was forced to retaliate, would file lawsuit against US with WTO on tariffs
• Australia PM Turnbull awaited a petition to call party meeting; would call meeting midday on Friday if the petition was received. Confirmed he would not stand as candidate in leadership ballot (unlikely to contest another leadership vote).Australia adjourns parliament until Sept 10th amid leadership crisis

Europe:

• Germany Chancellor Merkel is reportedly more focused on the selection of the next EU President over securing the ECB Presidency for Bundesbank's Weidmann
• Brexit Sec Raab: EU was being irresponsible by refusing to help him limit the impact of a no deal Brexit. Remained confident that a good deal with EU was within our sights. In some cases UK to take unilateral action to maintain continuity in the event of a no-deal Brexit;

Americas:

• US Treasury official Malpass and Chinese Vice Min Wang resume trade talks in Washinton (Note: 1st face to face discussions since June)
• US tariffs on an additional $16B worth of imports from China are expected to take effect as of 12:01 am Thursday. China was expected to issue retaliatory measures
• FOMC Aug Minutes: Many participants said it would likely be appropriate to “soon” raise rates. Many participants noted that it would likely be appropriate in not too distance future to no longer refer to monetary policy stance as accommodative. Generally saw GDP growth slowing in H2 but remain above potential

Economic Data:

• (NO) Norway Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; GDP Mainland Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e
• (FR) France Aug Business Confidence: 105 v 107e; Manufacturing Confidence:110 v 108e; Production Outlook Indicator: 11 v 11e; Own-Company Production Outlook:18# v 23 prior
• (FR) France Aug preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 53.7 v 53.5e (23rd month of expansion); Services PMI: 55.7 v 55.1e; Composite PMI: 55.1 v 54.6e
• (CH) Swiss Q2 Industrial Output Y/Y: 8.3% v 7.5%e; Industry & Construction Output Y/Y: 7.6% v 5.6% prior
• (DE) Germany Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 56.1 v 56.5e (44th month of expansion); Services PMI: 55.2 v 54.3e; Composite PMI: 55.7 v 55.1e
• (SE) Sweden July Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 5.8%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adj): 6.4% v 6.2%e; Unemployment Rate Trend: 6.2% v 6.2% prior
• (SE) Sweden Q2 Total Number of Employees Y/Y: % v 2.4% prior
• (TW) Taiwan July Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.4% v 3.6%e
• (EU) Euro Aug Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 54.6 v 55.2e (61st month of expansion); Services PMI: 54.4 v 54.4e; Composite PMI: 54.4 v 54.5e
• (ES) Spain Jun Trade Balance: -€2.5B v -€2.2B prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

• None seen

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 0.2% at 385.1, FTSE 0.3% at 7591, DAX +0.1% at 12391, CAC-40 +0.3% at 5435, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 9617, FTSE MIB +0.1% at 20714, SMI +0.2% at 9066 S&P 500 Futures +0.1%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trades slightly higher in quiet trade with trade tensions and mixed European PMI figures capping gains. Ryanair outperforms following reports of an agreement with Irish pilots following lengthy negotiations. On the earnings front Kinopolis, Sunrise Com, CRH, Bam Groep are among the risers after earnings, while Ambu and Ion Beam are notable decliners after a fall in profits. Looking ahead notable earners include Alibaba, with Hormel, Childens Place, Leju, Sanderson Farms among other set to report.

Movers

• Consumer Discretionary Kinepolis [KIN.BE] +2.7% (Earnings), Ryanair [RYA.UK] +6.4% (Reportedly agreed deal with Irish pilots), Boohoo [BOO.UK] -5.5% (No reason seen)
• Technology Sunrise Communications [SRCG.CH] +7% (Earnings)
• Industrials CRH [CRH.UK] +0.7% (Earnings), Bam groep [BAMNB.NL] +7% (Earnings)
• Financials John Laing [JLG.UK] +8.2% (Earnings)
• Healthcare Ambu [AMBUB.DK] -1.5% (earnings)

Speakers

• ECB’s Weidmann (Germany): Time to begin the very expansionary policy (in-line with prior views). Reiterated view that policy normalization to be gradual over the coming years
• SNB's Moser: Could be years before the balance sheet could be reduced
• UK Brexit Sec Raab stated that the Brexit withdrawal deal was about 80% complete with EU but obstacles remained including the Northern Ireland border. Was important not to exaggerate risks of a 'no-deal' Brexit. Reiterated that 'no-deal' Brexit remains an unlikely scenario
• EU's Moscovici: France must present budget savings and stressed that French govt debt remained too high
• Italy Interior Min Salvini (also Dep PM): Govt to seek to increase investor appetite for the country. State must control private infrastructure company work
• Norway Central Bank (Norges) Household Inflation expectation survey raised its 12-month expectations outlook from 2.1% to 2.4% and its 2-3-year inflation outlook from 3.2% to 3.3%

Currencies

• The USD was marginally firmer in the session snapping a multi-day losing streak aided by the most recent Fed minutes that signaled a Sept rate rise coming. Concerns over the upcoming US/China trade negotiation moved back to the front burner as the US implemented the latest back of tariffs.
• EUR/USD lower by 0.3% at 1.1570 as the major European Manufacturing PMI data came in mixed.
• GBP/USD softer by 0.3% at 1.2880 area as Brexit negotiations continue
• The AUD/UASD was back below the 0.73 level after Australia adjourned its parliament until Sept 10th amid leadership crisis. PM Turnbull was seen as unlikely to contest another leadership vote

Fixed Income

• Bund Futures trades at 163.12 down 8 ticks retracing some of the move as European Indices trade higher. Resistance moves to 163.82 then 164. A downside break of 163.00 sees 162.69 initially.
• Gilt futures trades at 123.43 up 4 ticks following the move in Treasuries. Continued support at 123.12, with a continued move higher targeting 123.93 then 124.00.
• Thursday 's liquidity report showed Wednesday's excess liquidity fell from €1.877T to €1.873T. Use of the marginal lending facility rose from €46M to €61M.
• Corporate issuance saw 4 issuers raise $3.7B in the primary market

Looking Ahead

• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) announcement on upcoming CTZ issuance (set for Aug 28th)
• (UK) First 'no-deal' technical notices to be published on Thursday, Aug 26th
• (IL) Israel July Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.4% prior
• (CO) Colombia July Retail Confidence: No est v 30.7 prior; Industrial Confidence: No est v 2.4 prior
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month bills
• 05:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
• 06:00 (UK) Aug CBI Retailing Reports Sales: 13e v 20 prior; Total Distribution: No est v 25 prior
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 84.2 prior
• 07:30 (EU) ECB July Minutes
• 08:00 (PL) Poland July M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% -prior; Y/Y: 7.3%e v 7.3% prior
• 08:00 (PL) Poland Central bank (NBP) July Minutes
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mid-Aug IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.1%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 4.5% prior
• 08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 215Ke v 212K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.73Me v 1.721M prior
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 17th: No est v $457.6B prior
• 09:00 (US) Jun FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Q/Q: No est v 1.7% prior
• 09:45 (US) Aug Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI: 55.0e v 55.3 prior; Services PMI: 55.8e v 56.0 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 55.7 prior
• 10:00 (US) July New Home Sales: 645Ke v 631K prior
• 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Aug Advance Consumer Confidence: -0.7e v -0.6 prior
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
• 11:00 (US) Aug Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 23e v 23 prior
• 11:00 (US) Treasury announce on upcoming 2-year FRN issuance (set for Aug 29th)
• 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year TIPS Reopening
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -5.0%e v -5.8% prior

• European automakers under pressure after renewed Trump threats;
• GBP slips as prospect of no deal Brexit seen rising;
• Powell speech tomorrow of interest as Trump applies pressure on Fed.

It's been another relatively slow start to trading on Thursday, with stocks in London trading relatively flat and US futures pointing to a similar open on Wall Street.

European automakers have been under a little pressure this morning after US President Donald Trump once again threatened 25% on all imports. It seems that despite the positive talks with Jean-Claude Juncker last month, Trump is once again losing patience with the EU and is using the auto industry to push the issue. Of course, this could simply be a deflection technique to distract from what has been a tough week for the President, with his former campaign manager being found guilty of fraud and his former lawyer pleading guilty to campaign financing crimes, implicating Trump in the process.

While European stocks on the whole are holding up ok, the single currency isn't doing so well. The euro has pared losses over the last week against the dollar, as Trump blasted the Federal Reserve for not helping his cause by raising rates, as well as the EU and China for apparent currency manipulation. This provided some temporary relief in the dollar rally, something that may have already run its course with the greenback once again higher on the day.

The pound isn't faring much better against the dollar, with trading clearly displaying their concern not just at the lack of progress in Brexit negotiations, but the acknowledgement among senior ministers that no deal is not only a possibility but even more probable than not. While I still don't believe this is actually the case, it is taking its toll on the pound which is now off more than 10% against the dollar in a little over four months.

Of course, this is being aided by the overall strength that we're seeing in the dollar, which has benefited not only from a strong economy and fourth rate hike being priced in this year, but also some safe haven flows with Treasuries being preferred to the more traditional option of Gold, possibly due to the yield they now offer.

With the President clearly unhappy with the strength of the dollar and showing his frustration with the Fed as a result, it will be interesting to see what Chairman Jerome Powell has to say during his Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. The Fed has been clear and consistent in raising rates recently, having hiked once a quarter since the end of last year and is expected to continue that through the end of 2018. I don't expect Powell's views – or those of the rest of the FOMC - to change on the back of these comments from Trump.

WTI oil price moved lower on Thursday, consolidating previous day’s over 3% rally, as rising concerns over US-China trade conflict offset positive impact of unexpectedly strong fall in crude stocks (EIA report on Wednesday showed draw of 5.83 million barrels vs 1.49 million draw forecasted, while API report on Tuesday showed fall in crude stocks by 5.17 million barrels vs previous week’s 3.66 million barrels build).

Overbought slow stochastic and neutral momentum, which failed to break into positive territory, support corrective action, which so far holds above initial support at $67.44 (20SMA).

Extended dips should find footstep above $66.70 (Fibo 38.2% of $64.43/$68.10 rally) to keep near-term bulls in play for fresh upside action.

Strong barriers lay at $68.52/70 zone (converged 10/55SMA’s / Fibo 38.2% of $75.34/$64.43 descend), break of which would generate strong bullish signal for continuation of recovery rally from $64.43 (16 Aug low).

Res: 68.10, 68.52, 68.70, 69.35
Sup: 67.44, 67.23, 66.70, 66.27

Spot Gold price tested support at $11.86 (Fibo 38.2% of $1160/$1201 rally) in extension of pullback from $1201 (22 Aug high). Reversal pattern is forming on daily chart after recovery rally from $1160 (16 Aug low) failed at psychological $1200 barrier on Wednesday and daily action ended in Doji candle. Fresh weakness today looks for confirmation of the pattern on close below $1186 which would risk extension towards Fibo supports at $1180 and $1175 (50% and 61.8% respectively). South-heading momentum, slow stochastic reversing from overbought territory and daily MA's returning to full bearish setup, support scenario.

Res: 1190, 1196, 1200, 1202
Sup: 1186, 1180, 1175, 1171