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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 1.22% against the USD and closed at USD1201.40 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1202.60, with gold trading 0.10% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1195.07, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1187.53. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1213.67, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1224.73.

The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 1.67% against the USD and closed at USD15.02 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.05, with silver trading 0.20% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.91, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.77. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.24, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.44.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.37% against the USD and closed at USD67.43 per barrel, amid rising crude stockpiles at the US crude delivery hub.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 67.55, with oil trading 0.18% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 66.25, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 64.95. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 68.31, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 69.07.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

The USD/JPY seems to have bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. The bullish bounce could indicate the end of the bearish ABC (purple).

The USD/JPY could be building an expanded WXY (pink) correction within wave B (red). A bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (red) would make the continuation within wave X (pink) likely.

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a bearish wave 5 (orange) within wave C (purple) of wave W (pink). The current bullish impulsive price action is probably a wave A (purple) of the larger wave X (pink).

General Trend:

• Asian markets show stability following losses on Monday; overall trading is mixed
• Chinese equity markets decline in early trading

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened +0.3%
• ASX 200 Energy index +1.2%, Utilities +1.1%, Financials +1%, Consumer Discretionary +0.9%, Resources +0.8%; REIT -0.2%
• (AU) Australia Jul NAB Business Conditions: 12 v 15 prior; Confidence: 7 v 6 prior
• (AU) Australia sells A$150M v A$150M indicated in Nov 21 2027 indexed bonds, avg yield 0.7099%
• (NZ) New Zealand Fin Min Robertson: Domestic economy has strong fundamentals

China/Hong Kong

• Shanghai Composite opened -0.2%, Hang Seng flat
• Hang Seng Industrial Goods index -4.5%, Info Tech -3.6%, Materials -1.8%, Services -1.5%, Consumer Goods -1.3%, Property/Construction -1%, Financials -0.5%
• (CN) CHINA JUL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.0% V 6.3%E
• (CN) CHINA JUL FIXED ASSETS INVESTMENT (EX RURAL) YTD Y/Y: 5.5% V 6.0%E (new multi-year low)
• (CN) China Jul Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.8% v 9.1%e: YTD Y/Y: 9.3% v 9.4%e
• (CN) CHINA JUL SURVEYED JOBLESS RATE: 5.1% V 4.8% PRIOR
• (CN) China Stats Official: Economic operation steady, with some changes in July; economic growth is still within a reasonable range, which is hard won
• (CN) CHINA PBOC SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE: 6.8695 V 6.8629 PRIOR (weakest CNY fix since May 2017)
• (CN) China PBoc Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips OMO (18th straight skip)
• (CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM): To evaluate US Act of Foreign Investment
• (CN) China Foreign Ministry: Situation in Xinjiang is stable
• (CN) China should prepare for free-floating yuan currency (CNY) framework - Chinese Press

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.9%
• TOPIX Electric Appliances index +1.2%, Info & Communications +1.2%, Real Estate +1%
• (JP) Japan Jun Final Industrial Production M/M: -1.8% v -2.1% prelim; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.2% prelim

Korea

• Kopsi opened +0.1%
• (KR) North Korea state media: confirms will hold new summit meeting with South Korea in Sept

Other

• (ID) Indonesia said to hold cabinet meeting related to FX reserves

North America

• US equity markets ended lower: Dow -0.5%, S&P500 -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.7%
• S&P500 Energy -1.3%, Materials -1%

Levels as of 01:30ET

• Nikkei 225, +1.9%, ASX 200 +0.7%, Hang Seng -1.1%; Shanghai Composite -0.5%; Kospi +0.5%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.3%, Dax +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.2%
• EUR 1.1415-1.1394; JPY110.88-110.58; AUD 0.7285-0.7260 ;NZD 0.6606-0.6570
• Aug Gold +0.3% at $1,201/oz; Sept Crude Oil +0.4% at $67.48/brl; Sept Copper -0.3% at $2.728/lb

Market movers today

Financial markets will continue to focus on developments in Turkey, which over the past week have had significant ramifications for other emerging market and G10 currencies.
A first estimate of German Q2 GDP data is out today, which we and consensus expect to show only a modest growth rebound to 0.4% q/q. Although the preliminary print will not bring any component breakdown, we will st ill get some insights into the growth drivers in Q2 and will look out for evidence of headwinds from the external side. The second estimate for euro area Q2 GDP figures is also due to be released, with a risk towards a slight upward revision to 0.4% q/q.

It will be interesting to see whether German ZEW expectations show some signs of stabilisation in August , in line with other sentiment indicators such as Ifo and PMI lately.

The final July HICP figures for Germany, France and Spain are also on the agenda and will give insights into any possible revisions to Friday's final euro area print .

The UK labour market report for June is also due out . We estimate the unemployment rate (3M average) fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while average weekly earnings have risen in quite a stable manner at 0.2% m/m in recent months and we believe the trend continued in June. This would leave the annual growth rate (3M average) unchanged at 2.7% y/y.

In Scandinavia, Danish Q2 GDP data is also due (see next page).

Selected market news

It was another day of the Turkish lira saga as contagion spread to some developed and emerging markets. Markets stayed in wait -and-see mode yesterday expecting encouraging measures from the Turkish authorities to support the TRY. While the Turkish central bank provided some relief in liquidity, giving local banks an additional USD6bn of FX, it did not arrange the repoauction or announce other supportive measures. Markets closed disappointed, pushing the TRY 8% lower against the USD. Some calm spread throughout FX markets this morning, as USD/TRY settled around the 6.90 level, but we expect market volatility to continue in coming days, also because the US has warned there will be no negotiations until the detained American pastor is released. Some emerging market central banks also intervened to support their currencies yesterday.

US equity futures are expected to be slightly in the green this morning, as Asian shares rebounded despite Chinese data for industrial product ion, retail sales and fixed asset investments coming in slightly weaker than expected this morning. Fixed asset investments especially declined notably in H1 18 and grew at the slowest pace since 1999. This a result of the gradual financial tightening of the authorities and supports our view of a moderate slowdown in China ahead.

Following up on EUR/JPY short (sold at 128.60, stop at 127.45). Last post here.

We put a target at 126.00 before the dip to 125.96. The short position was closed with 260 pips profit.

As mentioned before, price actions from 125.13 could be a wave four corrective pattern in a five way sequence. It will probably takes some more time to develop. There will likely be a wave five decline through 125.13. But considering that it's close to 124.61 key support level, downside potential might be limited.

So, we'll keep our hands off EUR/JPY for now.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1371; (P) 1.1403 (R1) 1.1440; More.....

A temporary low is in place at 1.1364 in EUR/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.1529 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, below 1.1364 will resume larger decline to 61.8% projection of 1.2413 to 1.1509 from 1.1745 at 1.1186. Note that it's a cluster level with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Hence, we'll tentatively look for short term bottoming around 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1851 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2734; (P) 1.2762; (R1) 1.2795; More...

A temporary low is in place at 1.2722 with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral for consolidations. But upside should be limited below 1.2956 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.2722 will extend recent decline to 161.8% projection of 1.3362 to 1.2956 from 1.3212 at 1.2555 next.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4141). Current downside acceleration argues that it's possibly resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3212 resistance holds. Retest of 1.1946 should be seen next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9916; (P) 0.9935; (R1) 0.9951; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.9984 will resume the rebound from 0.9866 to retest 1.0067 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 0.9186. On the downside, below 0.9894 might extend the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 with another falling leg. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we'd expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 fibonacci level will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.