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Aussie Trading Higher In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.50% against the USD and closed at 0.7381.

LME Copper prices declined 0.02% or $1.5/MT to $6141.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.94% or $20.0/MT to $2110.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7386, with the AUD trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Australia's Westpac leading index rose 0.01% on a monthly basis in June, after registering a revised drop of 0.23% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7362, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7338. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7424, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7462.

Looking forward, investors will keep an eye on Australia's unemployment rate for June and the NAB business confidence for Q2, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Gold: Yellow Metal Trading Slightly Higher In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 1.04% against the USD and closed at USD1227.70 per ounce, as the US dollar strengthened, after Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell’s optimistic view on the US economy.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1228.20, with gold trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1221.03, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1213.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1240.23, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1252.27.

The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Silver: White Metal Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 1.33% against the USD and closed at USD15.60 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.62, with silver trading 0.10% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.48, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.36. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.81, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.01.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Crude Oil: Oil Trading Higher, Ahead Of The EIA’s Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.32% against the USD and closed at USD67.74 per barrel, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories rose 0.63 million barrels to 409.5 million barrels in the week ended 13 July 2018.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 67.76, with oil trading a tad higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 67.05, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 66.33. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 68.46, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 69.15.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3130; (P) 1.3174; (R1) 1.3238; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that pull back from 1.3385 should have completed at 1.3063 already. Above 1.3216 will bring retest of 1.3385 first. Break will resume whole rally from 1.2061 for 1.3685 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.3067 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 1.2870).

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2870) holds, we'll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7363; (P) 0.7401; (R1) 0.7426; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation pattern from 0.7390 could extend. But even in case of another rise through 0.7483, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7359 will target 0.7309 support first. Sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1625; (P) 1.1685 (R1) 1.1721; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's staying in converging range. On the downside, below 1.1612 will argue that larger fall from 1.2555 is possibly ready to resume. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 1.1507 low. Break will confirm and should target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 and then 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. In case, the consolidation extends, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3036; (P) 1.3152; (R1) 1.3233; More...

GBP/USD's sharp fall through 1.3102 support suggest that larger decline might be resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3048 first. Break there will confirm and resume fall from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3292 minor resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.3048 with another recovery. But still, upside should be limited by 1.3471 to bring larger decline resumption eventually

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. We'll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3048 at 1.3555 is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9951; (P) 0.9977; (R1) 1.0026; More...

USD/CHF's pull back from 1.0067 to 0.9926 was much deeper than expected. But subsequent quick and strong rebound saved the bullish case. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for 1.0067 first. Break there will resume the larger rise from 0.9186. USD/CHF should then target 61.8% projection of 0.9186 to 1.0056 from 0.9787 at 1.0325, which is close to 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 0.9926 will dampen the bullish view again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. After drawing support from 55 day EMA, it's now resuming for 1.0342 key resistance. For now, we'd still cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 0.9787 support is needed to signal completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.42; (P) 112.68; (R1) 113.13; More...

USD/JPY's break of 127.79 temporary top confirms rise resumption and intraday bias is back on the upside. The rally from 104.62 is expected to target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.