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European currencies posted solid gains, while the US dollar came under pressure amid easing geopolitical tensions following reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. Reduced demand for so-called safe-haven assets acted as the primary driver, prompting a reallocation of capital flows towards risk-sensitive instruments and developed market currencies.

Additional pressure on the dollar came from a sharp decline in oil prices, driven by expectations of stabilised supply through the Strait of Hormuz. This has lowered inflation risks and reinforced expectations of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, US Treasury yields declined, further supporting a reassessment of the Fed’s policy outlook. Against this backdrop, money markets are once again pricing in the probability of rate cuts before year-end, limiting the dollar’s recovery potential and reinforcing the current downward momentum.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its recent range, moving higher in line with broad-based dollar weakness. The price could continue rising towards 1.1740–1.1770. However, a short-term corrective pullback towards former resistance at 1.1610–1.1630 could happen. A daily close below 1.1600 may signal a return to the previous consolidation range.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• Today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German industrial production
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core PCE Price Index
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair also broke out to the upside, following the broader trend of dollar weakness. After such a sharp move, a corrective pullback towards the recent highs at 1.3320–1.3350 might be possible. A sustained move above yesterday’s high could open the way for further gains towards 1.3510–1.3560.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• Today at 11:30 (GMT+3): Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey
• Today at 12:00 (GMT+3): UK mortgage rate data
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims

Summary

The appreciation of European currencies is being driven by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, declining oil prices, and a reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The upside breakouts in EUR/USD and GBP/USD reflect a shift in market balance towards risk assets. However, further direction will depend on confirmation from incoming US macroeconomic data. Should downward pressure on yields persist and rate cut expectations strengthen, the dollar may continue to weaken. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could trigger short-term stabilisation and a return to consolidation.

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For several weeks, the oil market remained directly influenced by the US-Iran tensions. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent prices within the $97–110 range. Overnight on 8 April, the parties announced a two-week ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping, immediately removing the accumulated geopolitical premium from prices. Brent declined by over 10%, falling towards the $92 per barrel level.

However, later the same day, the ceasefire came under pressure. Gulf states reported Iranian drone and missile strikes, with the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain confirming attacks on oil facilities and infrastructure. Iran subsequently suspended vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing a breach of the agreement by Israel, which had conducted strikes in Lebanon. Israel clarified that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon.

Negotiations are scheduled for 10 April in Islamabad, although the outcome remains uncertain. The market continues to show high sensitivity to any changes in diplomatic or military rhetoric. In parallel, OPEC+ approved an increase in oil production quotas on Sunday, adding further supply-side pressure.

Technical Picture

On the daily chart, the prolonged consolidation within the $60–75 range concluded with an impulsive rally towards $115, driven by geopolitical escalation in February–March 2026. Notably, on 18 March, vertical volume recorded a peak spike, confirming the climactic nature of the move.

The market failed to sustain these elevated levels, and the subsequent correction pushed prices down to $89, where the price approached the lower boundary of a horizontal volume cluster. Above current levels, the market profile remains dense, with the highest concentration of trading activity (POC) located in the $101–103 range. This area could serve as the nearest upside reference, with a breakout requiring significant buyer participation. The next resistance level could be $109.

For sellers, the key support level could be $89. A break below this level aligns with the base of the previous session and may influence short-term bearish positioning.

The RSI with Moving Averages (nominal) indicator presents a similarly notable picture. The RSI has remained below both moving averages for the past 10 days, with both MAs trending downward. This signals a weakening bullish impulse and a shift towards a neutral-to-bearish oscillator configuration.

Key Takeaways

Brent prices corrected sharply following the removal of the geopolitical premium and increased supply pressure from OPEC+. From a technical perspective, the price remains below the POC zone, while the RSI+MA configuration reflects a bearish context. The key range levels—89 and 109—could be reference points for the upcoming session.

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Market Overview

The crypto market cap dropped by 1.65% over the past 24 hours to $2.41 trillion, with most actively traded coins also declining. NEAR (+1.1%), Tron (+0.3%), and Bitcoin Cash (−0.5%) are performing relatively better than the market. The day’s underperformers include Algorand (−11.4%), Aptos (−6.1%), and Polkadot (−6.1%).

Bitcoin made a fresh attempt to breach $73K on Wednesday but once again encountered a strengthening sell-off, retreating to $71K by the start of active European trading. BTC remains above the 50-day moving average, which has already turned upwards, reinforcing the short-term bullish sentiment. However, we will need to wait for the price to rise above $75K before we can speak of the market entering an active bullish phase.

Ethereum retreated by 4% to $2.18K from its peak the previous day. This pullback is not yet cause for concern and appears more like a short-term correction while the overall sentiment remains optimistic. We see fluctuations within the $2.0K–$2.4K range as market noise; a breakout beyond this calm consolidation zone would signal the start of a directional move.

News Background

Analysts are sceptical about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s growth. Uncertainty regarding the fulfilment of conditions, the threat of a new escalation, and macroeconomic pressure could limit the growth of the crypto market, according to LVRG.

The key conditions for Bitcoin to resume growth are its consolidation above the $74K level and a subsequent break above $80K. Breaking through these levels could trigger a new wave of optimism and restore the uptrend, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said.

The US SEC has described its previous practice of prosecuting crypto companies under former chairman Gary Gensler as misguided. The regulator reported that 95 such cases had been initiated since 2022.

Zahir Abtikar announced the closure of the Split Capital hedge fund, citing the ineffectiveness of this business model for the cryptocurrency industry. According to him, the number of high-quality projects is declining, and many cryptocurrency creators are simply imitating the business.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 211.85; (P) 212.51; (R1) 213.07; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 213.29 resistance will resume the rise from 207.20 and target a retest on 214.98 high. On the downside, below 209.58 will bring deeper fall to 207.20 to extend the corrective pattern from 214.98.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 203.13) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.63; (P) 185.10; (R1) 185.38; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rise from 180.78 is in progress and should target a retest on 186.86 high. On the downside, below 184.21 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 182.56 will extend the corrective pattern from 186.86 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 176.21) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8685; (P) 0.8709; (R1) 0.8731; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidations continues below 0.8740. On the upside, above 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 short term bottom to 0.8788 resistance next. However, break of 0.8675 will bring retest of 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be resume to resume through 0.8863. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6489; (P) 1.6568; (R1) 1.6635; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Corrective rebound from 1.6125 could have completed at 1.6842 after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6733). Deeper fall should be seen to retest 1.6125. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 1.6842 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7207) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9198; (P) 0.9237; (R1) 0.9267; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point, and more consolidations would be seen first. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.8979 at 0.9235 will pave the way to 0.9394 key resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8979 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) holds, the larger down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still expected to continue through 0.8979 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rise through 0.9394 resistance, even as a corrective move.

Markets

Markets experienced an impressive ‘relieve squeeze’ after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that should allow for a more in-depth solution to the conflict. Visibility on how this process will develop and what it eventually might yield in the end remains low with US and Iranian starting points miles apart. Despite the multiple ‘likely’ roadblocks, markets cheered the announcement as if they expected it to be a real game-changer. European equities rebounded up to 5% (EuroStoxx 50). US indices which already anticipated something to happen on Tuesday still gained another 2.5-3%. The force of the moves suggests investors had built up quite some ‘defensive protection’ in the run-up to Tuesday’s deadline that now had to be unwound. Oil evidently was one of the key barometers on the perceived level of stress. Brent oil at some point dropped from $110+ levels on Tuesday to almost $90 p/b intraday (close near $94.75). It also triggered a similar impressive squeeze in the inflation trade that had been set up over the previous weeks. German yields declined between 22.9 bps (2-y) and 7.4 bps (30-y). Euro are money markets reduced their expected probability on a April 30 ECB rate hike to 30% from 70% and now see two rather than three hikes EoY. The ‘pricing out’ in the UK (yield declines up to 23.7 bps in the 2-y) was even more impressive. US yields initially joined the easing trend but gradually reversed gains and eventually closed the session little changed between -0.5 bps 5-y & +1.2 bps 30-y. The Fed assessment as revealed in the Minutes of the March 18 meeting in the current context evidently is subject to a quickly developing economic and inflation environment. The conflict in the Middle East probably raises the risk both to the labour market and at the same time of higher inflation. While views in the Fed are divided on the weight of those factors for policy, a growing number of governors is rather focusing on the inflation risks. On FX markets the dollar, which of late profited only modestly for safe haven flows, was one of the victims of the ‘relieve squeeze’. DXY closed at 99.13 (from 99.86 on Tuesday). However, ‘in line’ with the reversal on the US yields markets, the dollar closed well off intraday lows. EUR/USD filled offers north of 1.17, but closed at 1.166 (from 1.1595). In a similar move, EUR/GBP briefly dipped below 0.87 to close just north of the big figure.

The evident question now evidently is ‘what’s next’? This uncertainty applies to the status of the ceasefire (violated?), the kick-off of the negotiations (expected this weekend in Islamabad) & the status of the ‘opening’ of the Strait of Hormuz. For (interest rate) markets, the key is to assess the inflationary fall-out of the conflict even with this (fragile) ceasefire in place. The multiple political and logistic issues that still have to be solved suggest that quite some costs in the end still might filter through to end demand. In this respect, the relief rally on interest rate markets yesterday probably doesn’t have to go much further as long as there is no indication of a genuine improvement in fixing distorted supply chains. The dollar might enter a more neutral pattern. Recent performance at least doesn’t suggest a really strong rush to the US currency in a context of current low geopolitical visibility. Some EUR/USD consolidation in the 1.15/1.18 corridor might be on the cards with the downside better protected.

News & Views

Geopolitically driven macro pressures weigh on UK housing market activity and the near term outlook according to the March 2026 RICS UK Residential Market Survey. With intensifying inflationary pressures pushing borrowing costs higher, buyer demand has weakened. At the headline level, the new buyer enquiries net balance slipped to -39% (-29% in Febr, weakest since August 2023). Volume of agreed sales has also been adversely affected, with the aggregate net balance falling from -13% to -34%, also the weakest since the summer of 2023. Respondents anticipate a further contraction of sales in coming months and see broadly stabilization for year-ahead sales (vs moderately positive view last month). On the supply side, there was marginally softer flow of listings coming to the market. The level of unsold stock on agents’ books has risen. The aggregate net balance of -23% for house prices points to some renewed downward pressure on prices coming through. It is still relatively moderate at the moment and is expected to build over the coming three months. A broad flat trend is seen for the year ahead, significantly down from +43% and +33% levels at the start of the year.

Czech National Bank board member Seidler said in an interview with Hospodarske Noviny that the central bank was in a relatively good position when the war in the Middle East started. Its slightly restrictive monetary policy allows it to look through the primary impact on inflation from the energy-related supply shock. The CNB must nevertheless be attentive to second-round effects to assess potential steps and their timing.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3813; (P) 1.3857; (R1) 1.3889; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.3965. As long as 38.2% retracement of 1.3840 to 1.3965 at 1.3780 holds, further rally is in favor. Break of 1.3965 will resume whole rise from 1.3480. However, sustained break of 1.3780 will argue that the rebound from 1.3840 has completed, and bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.3665 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.