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China’s producer prices rose from -0.9% yoy to 0.5% yoy in March, marking the first positive reading since September 2022 and ending a prolonged period of factory-gate deflation. The rebound was driven largely by energy-linked sectors, with non-ferrous metal mining surging 36.4% and smelting rising 22.4%, as higher oil prices pushed up input costs.

In contrast, consumer inflation softened. CPI slowed from 1.3% yoy to 1.0% yoy, below expectations of 1.2% yoy. Core CPI eased from 1.8% yoy to 1.1% yoy. On a monthly basis, CPI fell -0.7%, a sharper decline than the expected -0.2% and reversing February’s 1.0% increase.

While rising commodity prices are lifting producer costs, weak consumer demand and policy measures such as fuel price caps are limiting pass-through to households.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said Japan is not currently facing stagflation, noting that inflation is moving around the 2% target while the economy continues to grow above potential. His remarks reinforce the view that underlying conditions remain broadly stable despite rising global uncertainties.

However, Himino warned that the outlook could shift if geopolitical tensions persist. He highlighted that a prolonged Middle East conflict could "push down growth while accelerating inflation", creating a "dilemma and difficult problem ​for us".

Looking ahead, Himino emphasized that policy decisions will remain flexible and data-dependent. The BoJ will act with “an eye on the scale and length of shock,” as well as prevailing economic conditions.

Japan’s producer prices picked up pace in March, with PPI rising from 2.1% yoy to 2.6% yoy, above expectations of 2.3% yoy. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.8% following a revised 0.1% gain in February, reflecting renewed cost pressures at the wholesale level.

The rise was driven by higher prices for gasoline, chemical goods, and metal products, pointing to broad-based input cost increases. More notably, yen-based import prices surged 7.9% yoy after a revised 2.7% rise in February, highlighting the impact of currency weakness and elevated global commodity prices.

This combination points to rising upstream inflation risks. Sustained import-driven price increases could eventually filter into broader inflation, even as domestic demand conditions remain uneven.

New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index eased from 54.8 to 53.2 in March, signaling that manufacturing activity remains in expansion but at a slower pace. The details showed some loss of momentum, with production falling from 56.3 to 53.8 and new orders easing from 57.2 to 55.8, while deliveries slipped to the neutral 50.0 level.

Despite the softer activity indicators, employment improved from 50.3 to 51.4, suggesting firms are still hiring cautiously. However, the jump in finished stocks from 51.3 to 54.0 points to a potential buildup of inventory, which could reflect weaker demand conditions toward the end of the quarter.

Sentiment has clearly deteriorated. BusinessNZ’s Catherine Beard noted that negative commentary surged to 62.0% from 44.5%, with the war in Iran cited as a key concern. BNZ’s Doug Steel added that growth was “reasonable” in the first quarter but warned that headwinds intensified by quarter-end.

Full NZ BNZ PMI release here.

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY started a decent upward wave above 158.50.
• It faces key hurdles near 159.20 and 159.50 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD could extend gains if it settles above the 1.1720 resistance.
• Gold could aim for a fresh increase above $4,850.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar found support at 157.85 and started a fresh increase against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY traded above 158.40 to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 158.50 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.03 swing high to the 157.88 low.

However, a previous bullish trend line acted as a resistance at 159.10. The first major resistance sits at 159.20, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.03 swing high to the 157.88 low.

The main resistance could be 159.50. A close above 159.50 could open the doors for gains above 160.00. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 161.20.

Immediate support is seen near 158.65. The first key support sits at 158.40 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The next key area of interest might be near 158.00. A close below 158.00 might call for heavy losses. In the stated case, it could even revisit 156.50.

Looking at Gold, the price is stable above $4,650, and the bulls could soon aim for a move above the $4,850 resistance.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Consumer Price Index for March 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.9%, versus +0.3% previous.
• US Consumer Price Index for March 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +3.3%, versus +2.4% previous.
• US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy for March 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +2.7%, versus +2.5% previous.

Forecasts are an assessment of the most likely outcome, not the preferred one. The ceasefire announcement was welcome, but whether it holds is highly uncertain.

• The economy does not care about your feelings, so forecasts must reflect what you think is the most likely outcome, not necessarily what you wish would happen. This distinction is especially salient now. The outright fall in global fuel supply has different implications than other recent supply shocks, and the outlook for Australia and the world is rough.
• The ceasefire announced this week was obviously welcome, but the question is whether the Strait of Hormuz opens properly. The first 24 hours after the announcement were not promising. But if it does, that would be a better outcome than the baseline forecast update we released last week. We would be happy if our baseline forecast was wrong for this reason.
• The key issue for Australia, and for the domestic interest rate outlook, is how much of the energy price shock is already being passed through to prices of other goods and services. The RBA will be watching for this kind of behaviour, including through its liaison program, and will see it as a further leg up in underlying inflation from a rate that was already higher than desired.

The thing about forecasting is that your preferences do not matter. A baseline scenario is simply what you think is most likely. It is not necessarily what you wish would happen. And of course things could play out differently. It is the role of scenario and risk-sensitivity analysis to articulate these other possible future states of the world.

The disconnect between what you hope will happen and what you think will actually happen is especially salient now. The near-term outlook for Australia is tough: higher inflation, with consumers again squeezed by some combination of higher interest rates, lower income growth and higher unemployment. Things are even worse for many other countries. Australia has been able to leverage its LNG exports to ensure we have – so far – not been left short of other fuels. Many lower-income countries do not have this advantage and have been facing the prospect of shortages and rationing; some of our neighbours in the Pacific are particularly hard-hit.

The economic shock from the Gulf conflict centres on global oil and gas supply. It is different from COVID, when the disruptions were all the way down supply chains. It also differs from the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where the Russian oil and gas supply did not disappear, it just needed time to be redistributed to non-European nations willing to buy it despite the sanctions; the peak decline in its oil output was estimated to be around 3 million barrels per day, but the disruption faded quickly. This time around, the oil and gas are not getting out of the Persian Gulf. Some production has been redirected through Saudi pipelines to other ports, but not all of it. Current estimates are that the net reduction of global production has been 8–9 million barrels per day for oil and one-fifth of pre-war global supply for gas. And at the same time, Russia’s output capacity has been reduced by successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure; news reports suggest this has cut global output by a further 0.7–1 million barrels per day.

The effect on prices from such a cut to capacity was always going to be severe.

News this week that a two-week ceasefire had been agreed was obviously welcome. Assuming it holds well enough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz properly – a big if given the attacks in the 24 hours following its announcement – it would be a better outcome than the baseline update we released last week, and one of the “risks on both sides” we contemplated when we released it. A lasting ceasefire and faster opening up of the Strait would put energy prices on a trajectory between the one we contemplated in last week’s baseline, and the one underpinning the forecasts in the March Market Outlook. A return to pre-war prices is unlikely in the short term, though, given the damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf states and in Russia.

Even if the ceasefire holds well enough that the Strait stays open, a key watchpoint is whether ships enter the Gulf during the next two weeks, not just whether those previously stuck there leave. If ships do not enter, the next wave of production will not be able to be shipped. Supply will sag again a few weeks later and prices will rebound, especially for refined product.

If the ceasefire does not hold, the reprieve on fuel supply will be brief. Trust between the parties is low and Iranian control of the Strait – even jointly with Oman – is an unstable equilibrium that is unacceptable to much of the rest of the world. Even if the ceasefire gets back on track after its rocky start, flare-ups later in the year cannot be ruled out.

The real question for Australia, and for the domestic interest rate outlook, is how much of the energy price shock is already being passed through to prices of other goods and services. On this there is less cause for optimism. While ‘temporary fuel levies’ are easier to unwind as fuel prices decline, for many products, list prices have been lifted significantly and a reversal seems less likely. Building materials are a particular issue, with the cost of building a detached home increasing as much as 10%, on our preliminary estimates. The lift in pricing has been widespread across industries and in some cases quite large relative to overall inflation trends. The RBA will be watching for this kind of behaviour, including through its liaison program, and will see it as a further leg up in underlying inflation from a rate that was already higher than desired.

Our next forecast round, scheduled for release next week, will contemplate both the case where traffic through the Strait remains disrupted and one where the ceasefire holds.
If the ceasefire does hold, downside risks to growth diminish and inflation risks ease. Because of the downstream pass-through to other prices we are already seeing, though, the inflation risks do not disappear and the RBA is still likely to raise the cash rate further. Still, it would be a better outcome than our current published baseline. This would be one of the instances where we would be quite happy to be wrong.

Key insights from the week that was.

Ahead of the worst of the current conflict, the ABS’ household spending indicator gained 0.3% in February, in line with January’s result and the trend pace of the past two years. Services continued to drive growth overall, aided in particular by holiday-related spending. Goods spending only managed a 0.1% gain, however, remaining weak.

Our Westpac-DataX Card Tracker suggests spending growth is likely to moderate in coming months as higher energy prices and weaker sentiment are felt, though a lasting end to hostilities could ease concern and see households look through some of the cost shock already in train. Geopolitical considerations are challenging for market participants to digest, let alone households and small business. For these individuals, in the fulness of time, pricing responses and time delays up and down the supply chain could prove as, or more, significant than the energy market dynamics currently being witnessed. Risks for the Australian consumer are therefore likely to linger.

In New Zealand, the RBNZ maintained the stance of policy as expected. However, our New Zealand team took the commentary to be hawkish, with a particular focus on second-round inflation pressures. The RBNZ’s short-term inflation forecast is now 4.2%yr at June 2026, in line with Westpac NZ Economics’ 4.1%yr projection. As a result, Westpac’s expected timing for the first hike for the coming cycle has been brought forward from December to September 2026, with the risk of a further acceleration if evidence of second-round inflation impacts accumulates.

Further afield, the data flow was concentrated in the US and mixed in tone. Over the Easter long weekend, nonfarm payrolls rebounded 178k in March, bringing the three-month average back up to 68k compared to an average monthly outcome of -8k in the second half of 2025 and 10k over the full year. The unemployment rate was also consistent with labour supply and demand being in balance in March, edging back down to 4.3%. Note though, this outcome was due to a further decline in the participation rate (now down 0.7ppts since April 2025) rather than an increase in household survey employment.

The weak outcomes for employment through late-2025 look to increasingly be affecting household demand – indeed, the downward revision to Q4 GDP to just 0.5% annualised was in part due to sub-par consumption growth (1.9% annualised).

Since the turn of the year, momentum looks to have slowed further, with real personal consumption expenditure up just 0.1% in February after a flat January. With business investment soft and susceptible to downside risks (core goods order growth in Q1-to-date is less than a third of the pace registered in Q4), US Q1 GDP growth looks likely to maintain a pace well below trend, closer to Q4’s third estimate than the 1.3% annualised pace currently projected by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast. This is before the sentiment and cost of living shock emanating from the Middle East is felt.

The above outcomes are unlikely to materially alter FOMC member’s baseline view and overall risk assessment. While the latest meeting minutes indicate “a vast majority of participants” see “risks to the employment side of the mandate… [as] skewed to the downside”, the labour market is considered to be in good health overall. Active risk assessment is therefore likely to focus more on price uncertainty, both with respect to the initial jump in energy prices and second-round effects which, over time, could build greater persistence into the core inflation pulse. This is not to say that the FOMC will vote on hiking interest rates anytime soon, in contrast to the RBA and RBNZ, but it likely means debate over a need to cut further will be deferred for the foreseeable future.

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical technical crossroads as CPI spike looms
• Markets are bracing for a massive 1.0% surge in March Headline CPI
• While the Headline CPI is forecasted to hit a two-year high of 3.4%, Core CPI is expected to remain stable at 0.2%, though the closure of the Strait of Hormuz presents a significant upside risk to food inflation

Market participants are eyeing the US Dollar Index (DXY) as it hovers above a key confluence area of support around the 98.50 mark.

The index has struggled to gain any traction since the gap down on Tuesday April 7, following the ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran. The optimism around a ceasefire remains fragile though as developments since the announcement hint at further escalation and a resumption of the war.

Thus the risk premium attached to markets remains firmly in play and this is evidenced by the lack of continuation to the moves which occurred just after the ceasefire announcement. Since then many assets have hovered in a tight range with Gold declining to levels prior to the ceasefire announcement overnight.

Oil prices on the other hand remain significantly higher than the pre-war levels and are once again breaching the $100/barrel mark.

The US dollar had benefitted from a risk off environment prior to the ceasefire and maybe get a renewed bid if the situation remains tense. For now though, the DXY remains caught in a tight range.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, April 9, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Looking at the technical picture, The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical crossroads.

The index has recently snapped its ascending channel, signaling a shift in market structure. We are now seeing a potential retest of the 99.50 and 100.00 psychological handles from below, which has flipped from support to resistance.

• Key Support: Immediate focus is on the confluence of the 100-day SMA (98.63) and the 200-day SMA (98.49). A daily close below this "Golden Cross" zone would confirm the trend reversal.
• Key Resistance: Bulls need a move back above the 100.00 mark and the recent swing high of 100.61 to invalidate the bearish pattern.

With the RSI softening toward the 40 level, the path of least resistance appears to be lower.

Conversely, if the DXY fails to record a daily candle close below the "Golden Cross" zone and 200-day MA then a retest of the 99.50 zone and potentially the psychological 100.00 level will increase in probability.

US GDP, PCE data fail to inspire a move. Will US CPI be the catalyst?

The latest batch of economic data paints a challenging picture for the U.S. economy: a "stagflationary" cocktail of cooling growth, shrinking personal incomes, and an unexpected climb in jobless claims.

However, it was the inflation data that stole the spotlight. The Commerce Department’s February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric—landed exactly on the mark. Headline prices climbed 0.4% for the month, a slight heat-up from January’s 0.3%, while maintaining a 2.8% annual pace.

The Core Reality

Core PCE, which filters out the noise of food and energy, also matched forecasts with a monthly rise of 0.4% and an annual print of 3.0%. While these figures met expectations, two major caveats remain:

• The Target Gap: Inflation remains stubbornly well above the Fed's 2% mandate.
• The Lag Effect: This data captures the pre-war environment. It does not yet account for the massive energy price spike triggered by the conflict with Iran which leaves the March outlook significantly more hawkish.

Source: LSEG

US CPI preview

Heading into tomorrow's CPI release which would provide a first glance at the potential impact of rising Oil prices, markets are bracing for a massive 1.0% surge in March CPI, the sharpest monthly jump since the 2022 energy crisis following the invasion of Ukraine. This spike is almost entirely a "pain at the pump" story; gasoline prices are projected to drive a staggering 12.5% increase in energy costs.

While the headline figure is set to jump, the underlying trend remains more subdued:

Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy): Expected at a moderate 0.2%, matching February’s pace.
Annual Headline Inflation: Forecasted to leap from 2.4% to 3.4%, hitting a two-year high.
Annual Core Inflation: Projected to tick up slightly to 2.6%.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

The Risk Factor: Although food is expected to rise by a modest 0.3%, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant upside threat. Disruptions to global fertilizer supplies could soon turn "moderate" food inflation into a much larger headache for the Fed.

In short, energy is doing the heavy lifting here, and while core inflation looks stable for now, the geopolitical ripple effects are just beginning to surface.

Such a move in the CPI print should in theory provide support for the US Dollar and could lead to a rebound.

However, the risk off/risk on sentiment dynamics remain the primary at present and thus any developments in the Middle East could still overshadow the CPI release.

Stay nimble.

Cryptocurrencies haven't found steady momentum for a rally during major market swings.

Recent dynamics have helped ease the harsh selloffs seen over the past six months. There has been a shift toward alternative assets amid a market-shattering conflict. Bitcoin reached its 50% retracement from its $120,000 record highs, coinciding with the mining of its 20 millionth unit. Additionally, Jane Street has reportedly stepped back from alleged market manipulations.

What will prompt crypto supporters to drive prices upward again? As always, this remains a million dollar question.

As investors and traders, our focus should be on preparing for upcoming opportunities by identifying entry and exit points, setting action criteria, and developing a robust strategy.

When preparation meets opportunity, investors may find that the current environment could favor them.

While stock markets have recovered more than 50% of their wartime losses, cryptocurrencies are still aiming to generate more ecstatic returns at the top of the cross-asset performance board. Before diving into Bitcoin and Ethereum charts, let's examine a few market dynamics.

ETF inflows and outflows

Cryptocurrencies ETF Flows – Source: CoinGlass. April 9, 2026

Crypto ETFs have finally eased their persistent outflows seen since October, with a bottom in mid-February and an actual, slow but consistent growth.

Ethereum has actually dominated the recent turn but there is more work to do – Runs always start (particularly for Altcoins), when the second largest crypto awakens.

A look into the Crypto Market Cap

Total Crypto Market Cap – Daily Chart. April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Crypto Market Cap is showing some positive signs after bottoming in Mid-February and slowly building higher lows, indicating that the bulk of the selloff is now behind us.

The move higher from Monday allowed it to breach the 50-Day Moving Average and the downward trendline from 2026.

Signs of recovery are still young and will need to strengthen further, but these are better developments for Digital Assets.

Let's dive right into the intraday Charts with technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Current Session in Cryptos – April 9, 2026 (15:18). Courtesy of Finviz

Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Luckily for Crypto bulls, Bitcoin did not complete its short-term head & shoulders pattern as the narrative largely softened since and allowed some new risk-on inflows.

Having now formed a higher low, the Main Crypto have its buyers back into relative control, particularly after bouncing above the $70,000 pivot zone. Three technical elements will be needed to pursue real chances of a rebound:

• Bulls will need to break $72,700, which failed twice today and forming an intraday bearish divergence – This is due to the general stalling in risk-assets seen today.
• On the longer-run, pushing above $76,100 (FOMC highs & Channel highs) could easily relaunch a run towards new all-time highs.
• Falling back below $68,750 however would point to higher chances of continued downside (less probable scenario for now)

Levels of interest for BTC trading:

Support Levels:

• $70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot (50 and 200-4H MA)
• $60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)
• $59,935 February Lows
• $52,000 to $58,000 Next support and 200-Week MA ($55,000 Mid-point)
• $40,000 Mid-2024 breakout support

Resistance Levels:

• Short term Top – $72,700
• FOMC Highs $76,200 (Bulls need to break!)
• $75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)
• $80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (50-Day MA)
• $90,000 to $95,000 Pivotal Resistance
• Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000

Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, April 9, 2026– Source: TradingView

The rebound in Ethereum is even more consistent than BTC, currently testing the upper bound of its October downtrend – A key test for what is coming ahead.

The bouncing RSI and counter-trend upward channel provides a favorable path for an upside breakout. The rest will be contingent on whether the general Market dynamic is still positive for global risk-taking.

A break above $2,300 would confirm a new breakout, with $2,600 coming next (above, the rebound is definitely confirmed!).

A breakout in Ethereum should also allow other altcoins to shine (look for the most consistent alts before, and later into the cycle if one really arrives, memecoins – they have struggled in the past cycle so it's still early to say if they will even have their time!)

Levels of interest for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

• 4H 50 and 200 MA $2,118
• Channel lows $2,000
• $1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)
• $1,744 February 6 lows
• $1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support
• 2025 Lows $1,384

Resistance Levels:

• March 4 Highs $2,201 (breaking!)
• $2,300 June War Key Pivot (bullish above)
• $2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now Resistance (Channel Highs)
• $3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)
• $4,950 Current new All-time highs

The narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

USDCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• USDCAD reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 1.3735

USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 1.3900 (former top of wave B from January), resistance trendline from 2025 and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active short-term correction 4.

Given the clear daily downtrend, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3735 (former top of wave 1 from March).