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Key takeaways

• Tariff escalation despite court setback: President Trump rejected the Supreme Court’s ruling against his 10% baseline tariffs and moved to lift them to 15% under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, raising fresh policy uncertainty and reviving the “Sell America” narrative.
• Risk-off market reaction: The US dollar weakened, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell, while gold rallied as investors sought safe havens amid renewed trade tensions and legal uncertainty over tariff policy.
• Diverging technical setups: USD/JPY remains bearish below 154.65/154.95, gold is testing key $5,170 resistance with breakout risk, and the Hang Seng Index shows short-term bullish momentum above 26,615 support.

US President Trump has refused to back down on his global tariffs policy after the US Supreme Court ruled against his use of his reciprocal tariffs enacted last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), in turn, deemed the global baseline tariff rate of 10% as illegal.

Trump called the Supreme Court verdict “unpatriotic” and vowed to press on the current White House’s aggressive trade policy stance to circumvent the Supreme Court’s ruling by imposing an increase in the global reciprocal tariff to 15% from 10% with immediate effect via a social media post on Saturday, 21 February.

Trump is applying the new baseline tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose tariffs for 150 days without congressional approval. Beyond the 150 days, securing congressional approval is likely to prove challenging for the White House because Democrats and several Republicans have opposed elements of Trump’s trade policy.

The latest cloud of uncertainty over the US tariff policy has triggered another bout of the “Sell America” narrative, where the US dollar weakened further in today’s Asia session (US Dollar Index shed -0.2%), S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures dropped by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Gold (XAU/USD) jumped by 0.8% (see Fig. 1) at the time of writing.

Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performances of the US dollar, Gold (XAU/USD), SPX 500 & Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures as of 23 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Let’s dissect the short-term trajectory of USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD), and Hang Seng Index.

USD/JPY – Reintegrate below 20-day and 50-day moving averages

Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 23 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Bearish bias below 154.65/154.95 short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 153.83 key near-term support opens scope for further potential weakness to expose the next intermediate support of 152.65/152.20 (see Fig. 2).

However, a clearance and an hourly close above 154.95 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 155.66 and 156.36.

Gold (XAU/USD) – Squeezed up to probe $5,170 key short-term resistance

Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 23 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Gold (XAU/USD) ended last Friday, 20 February, US session with a daily return of 2.2% and extends its gains further in today’s Asia session with an intraday rally of almost 1% to test a key short-term resistance at $5,160 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor down move from 29 January 2026 all-time high to 2 February 2026 low) (see Fig. 3).

The hourly RSI momentum indicator has started to inch downwards from its overbought reading of 82. Mixed elements, neutral between $5,170 and $4,960 (also close to the 20-day moving average).

Only a clearance and hourly close above $5,170 ignites a potential bullish move towards $5,448 and $5,606 (current all-time high).

On the flipside, failure to hold at $4,960 sees another round of choppy sideways downward drift towards the range supports of $4,842 and $4,703 (also the 50-day moving average).

Hang Seng Index – Short-term minor bullish momentum breakout

Fig. 4: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend as of 23 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have cleared above its 20-day moving average, which has acted as a near-term resistance since 12 February 2026 (see Fig. 4).

In addition, its hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its former descending resistance at around the 50 level, which suggests a potential revival of short-term bullish momentum.

Bullish bias above 26,615 key short-term pivotal support for a potential push up to test 27,228 intermediate resistance follow by the 27,500 major resistance.

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 26,615 negates the bullish tone for a potential drift down to retest the minor range support of 26,285 (in place since 20 January 2026).

Currency markets opened on Monday with the US dollar under pressure, as traders assessed weekend developments related to US tariff policy. According to Reuters:

• → On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump’s sweeping tariffs exceeded his authority.
• → In response, the US president criticised the court and introduced a blanket 15% import levy. Trump also insisted that higher-tariff agreements with trade partners should remain in force.

Against this backdrop, USD/CAD slipped below the 1.3660 level today. This comes despite the upward move observed since 11 February (marked by purple lines), which developed after Canadian inflation slowed from 2.7% to 2.4%. The weaker inflation data weighed on the Canadian dollar, as markets began pricing in the possibility of future interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.

Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD Chart

When analysing USD/CAD on 29 January (with the market trading near the psychological 1.3500 level), we:

• → highlighted the presence of a long-term descending channel;
• → noted that price was close to its lower boundary, which could act as support;
• → considered a rebound scenario.

Since then, USD/CAD has formed two bullish reversals near the 1.3500 area. However, on both occasions bullish momentum appeared to fade around 1.3700.

The current price action resembles a rounding top pattern, suggesting that sellers may soon attempt to regain control and push towards the lower purple boundary in an effort to resume the broader long-term downtrend.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3663; (P) 1.3687; (R1) 1.3705; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. Consolidations from 1.3480 and stronger rebound might be seen. But upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3738) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 1..3502 will bring retest of 1.3480 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7035; (P) 0.7065; (R1) 0.7114; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.7146. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 0.6896 support. On the upside, above 0.7146 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1747; (P) 1.1778; (R1) 1.1811; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3438; (P) 1.3476; (R1) 1.3518; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. For now, fall from 1.3867 is seen as correcting the whole rise from 1.2099. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3711 resistance holds. Below 1.3432 will target 1.3342 support first. Firm break there will solidify this case, and target 161.8% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3507 from 1.3711 at 1.3129.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.65; (P) 155.14; (R1) 155.57; More...

Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, above 155.63 will resume the rally from 152.25 and target 157.65 first. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a corrective pattern. Also rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.93) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from 0.7015. NZD/USD is consolidating and could aim for a move above 0.6000 in the short term.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar remained supported above 0.7000 and recovered losses against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance at 0.7070 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating above 0.5965 and 0.5950.
• There was a break above a declining channel with resistance at 0.5960 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.7000. The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above 0.7035 against the US Dollar to enter a short-term positive zone.

There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance at 0.7070. The bulls even pushed the pair above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7147 swing high to the 0.7015 low and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair could struggle to clear the 76.4% Fib retracement at 0.7115. The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 0.7150.

An upside break above 0.7150 might send the pair further higher. The next major target might be 0.7220. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.7300. If there is no close above 0.7115, the pair might start a fresh decline.

Immediate bid zone could be near 0.7065 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next area of interest is 0.7035. If there is a downside break below 0.7035, the pair could extend its decline toward 0.7015. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6965.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed AUD/USD. The New Zealand Dollar failed to stay above 0.6020 and corrected gains against the US Dollar.

The pair dipped below 0.5965 and the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.5830. A low was formed at 0.5937, and the pair is now attempting to recover losses. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6052 swing high to the 0.5937 low.

Besides, there was a break above a declining channel with resistance at 0.5960. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is above 50, signaling a short-term positive bias. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near 0.6010.

The next major hurdle for buyers could be near the 76.4% Fib retracement at 0.6025. A clear move above 0.6025 might even push the pair toward 0.6050. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6122 pivot zone in the coming sessions.

On the downside, there is support forming near 0.5965 and the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 0.5965, the pair might slide toward 0.5940. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD into a bearish zone to 0.5900.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Surprise! The US Supreme Court ruled most import tariffs — as imposed by the Trump administration under the Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — illegal, invalidating an estimated $130–$160 billion in tariff revenues.

Trump was furious. He called many people many names and said that he will find other ways to keep tariffs — the central piece of his international policy — alive, and that he is now imposing new 10% tariffs globally. And that was hiked to 15% on Saturday… What a mess!

No one knows what’s next. The White House said that the bilateral deals that have been agreed remain valid, but no one understands how trade partners can be imposed an additional 15% and still keep their original trade agreement. Meanwhile, the new 15% tariff itself cannot last forever, given that the legal provisions President Trump invoked only allow for temporary duties.

There is also no clarity regarding whether and how the US will refund companies that were subjected to tariffs illegally and have probably already passed these costs on to clients.

But in the aftermath of the first year with tariffs, the US trade deficit ballooned to the largest levels since 1960, and a recent New York Fed study showed that Americans — companies and households — have shouldered almost 90% of the tariffs imposed on the world by their government. Trump was furious after that study came out too… obviously.

In summary, it feels like a “Go Back to GO. Do Not Pass GO.” moment in terms of trade uncertainty. We’re back to square one, and the knock-on effects on companies, industries, countries and US debt levels are blurry again.

So what does it all mean for the markets?

Naturally, the ruling was perceived as great news by companies hit by tariffs and asking for refunds, while US sovereign yields were marginally higher on the idea that refunding companies for tariffs that should never have been collected will increase US debt — now approaching the $39trn mark.

The US dollar index slipped from a three-week high, while gold and silver have been rallying since tariff talk returned to the headlines. The Nikkei, European and US futures are notably down into the open this Monday morning as tariff uncertainty re-enters the arena, while the Hang Seng index — back from the Lunar New Year break — is diverging positively, led by technology stock gains, as the Kospi pulled back from a fresh ATH.

All in all, the week will be full of Trump and tariff news, and the latter could help commodities extend their rally, weigh on the US dollar, and pressure tariff- and trade-sensitive sectors and indices. In this context, the FTSE 100 should outperform peers, while mainland European indices could come under renewed pressure.

Good news for Europe is that Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations last week. And with inflation now back to the 2% policy target, the European Central Bank (ECB) could provide support if needed.

That’s not the case for the US, though. Data released last Friday showed that US growth slowed much more than expected last quarter (from 4.4% to 1.4% versus 2.8% expected by analysts) — dragged down by a record-long government shutdown (which lasted almost half of the three-month period), softer consumer spending (in line with Walmart’s weak forecast) and weaker trade (you know why). Meanwhile, price pressures rose faster in December; Core PCE, the Federal Reseve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, returned to the 3% mark — the highest level in two years — pushing Fed doves to further trim their rate-cut bets despite the soft-looking GDP number. The chances for a June rate cut stand close to a coin flip. Happily, the Fed could still inject liquidity to put a floor under any potential selloff, as they have been doing since last summer.

Zooming into the other major topics of the moment: a software company called RingCentral, specialized in cloud communications, jumped 30% on Friday after delivering strong quarterly earnings that beat expectations — confirmation that many companies may have been overly hit by fears that AI will destroy their business. Strong earnings could help them out of the water. Salesforce, Snowflake and Zoom earnings will be closely watched this week.

But the AI anxiety trade continues to look for its next victim. On Friday, cybersecurity software companies took a dip in the chilly water after Anthropic introduced a new tool that “scans codebases for security vulnerabilities and suggests targeted software patches for human review.” CrowdStrike and Cloudflare fell 8%, while the Global X Cybersecurity ETF fell nearly 5% and closed at its lowest level since November 2023. A story to follow.

This week is Nvidia earnings week! Nvidia is due to release its earnings on Wednesday after the close and is expected to deliver strong results that will likely beat expectations. The last time Nvidia disappointed investors was before the AI buzz started, before 2023. Plus, strong TSMC results and Big Tech’s eye-popping spending plans play in Nvidia’s favour. Yet investors will dig into the numbers, especially to see how much of the revenue Nvidia reports has actually been received. More broadly, strong results from Nvidia won’t reduce rising stress around massive AI spending, which is increasing the debt levels of Nvidia’s Big Tech clients — who could eventually be forced to trim their plans if investors push back by selling their stocks.

Let’s see. It will be another week full of tariff drama and earnings!

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7736; (P) 0.7754; (R1) 0.7777; More….

USD/CHF dips mildly today but overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral and consolidations from USD/CHF's consolidation pattern from 0.7603 could extend further. In case of stronger rise, upside upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7834) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that a larger scale corrective bounce in underway and target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.