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Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech that recent economic data, particularly January’s employment report, came in “substantially stronger” than expected, suggesting labor market risks may have "diminished". He noted that the initial estimate showed the US economy created more jobs in January than in the previous nine months combined, a development that surprised both policymakers and market participants.

Despite the upbeat signal, Waller cautioned that one strong month does not establish a trend. He emphasized that the Fed will receive additional employment and inflation data before the March 17–18 FOMC meeting, along with updates on job openings and retail sales. Only if February data confirm continued labor market strength alongside progress toward the 2% inflation target would his outlook turn “a bit more positive.”

In that scenario, Waller said his policy preference could “tilt toward a pause” at the upcoming meeting. However, he stressed the need for confirmation before adjusting his stance.

Addressing the recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, Waller downplayed its policy implications. He reiterated that tariffs tend to have only temporary effects on inflation and said he focuses on underlying price trends. Following traditional central bank practice, he intends to “look through” tariff-driven price moves, suggesting the ruling is unlikely to significantly alter his view on the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

Full speech of Fed's Waller here.

Alan Taylor reinforced his dovish stance in remarks at a Deutsche Bank event in London today, arguing that inflation risks are shifting away from stickiness and toward undershooting the 2% target. He suggested weakening demand and softening labor market now pose greater downside risks to price pressures than previously feared.

While acknowledging that services CPI remains “slightly concerning” at around 4.4%, Taylor described the persistence as a temporary lag rather than a structural issue. He said the broader disinflation trend remains intact, even if services inflation has not cooled as quickly as hoped.

Pointing to what he called a “pessimistic outlook” for the UK job market, Taylor argued that policy remains too restrictive and justified a faster pace of easing. He sees scope for two to three additional rate cuts before the Bank Rate approaches a theoretical neutral level.

As shown on the XAU/USD chart today, gold climbed above $5,170, reaching its highest level so far this month. The main bullish factors are:

• → US tariff uncertainty – after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs on Friday, the US president reinstated them, initially at 10% and then announcing an increase to 15% on Saturday.
• → Heightened geopolitical tensions – media reports indicate that the US is prepared not only for targeted strikes against Iran but also for a longer military operation. The presence of two aircraft carrier groups in the region raises the risk of direct confrontation, traditionally boosting gold demand.
• → End of the Chinese holiday season – the People’s Bank of China, pursuing a reserve diversification strategy away from the US dollar, may continue purchasing physical gold.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

On 17 February, analysis of gold price movements confirmed the long-term ascending channel and highlighted:

• → Bearish activity visible through the descending resistance line (R);
• → Bulls could rely on the channel’s lower boundary as support.

Indeed (as the arrow shows), the market remained within the channel. Moreover, bulls broke above the resistance line (R), which then acted as support around $4,960.

This formed an upward trajectory (black lines). Bullish behaviour is notable around $5,100, where price:

• → Gapped higher at the open;
• → Rose above the line dividing the lower half of the channel into two quarters.

Considering the chart, it is reasonable to suggest bulls currently hold the initiative, supported by fundamentals. They may aim for the channel’s median, with $5,100 providing support in case of a pullback.

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Market Overview

The crypto market cap has lost about 3.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.25 trillion. At its lowest point at the start of the day, the price fell to $2.22 trillion, which is not far from the lows of February 5–6. It seems that bears have gathered enough strength to try to complete the consolidation of the last couple of weeks during the hours of lowest liquidity. Among the top coins, Solana and Bitcoin Cash are taking the biggest hit, losing over 7%, while Tron is doing better than most, losing only 0.3%.

The sentiment index fell to 5, repeating the lows of February 12 and dropping this low for only the third time in history. According to the indicator, such a decline is a good point for long-term purchases. However, the last time there was a relatively long dip into single digits was in June 2022, and steady growth only began at the start of 2023. So, the lows of the sentiment index do not necessarily coincide with the lows of the crypto market prices.

Bitcoin fell to $64.2K at the start of the day on Monday, recovering to around $66K by the start of active trading in Europe. Despite an attempt at recovery in the last few hours, the bears on the chart showed who is in control, leaving the downward resistance in place and pushing BTC below the support level. Without a dramatic change in sentiment, the market may fall to $60K as early as this week.

News Background

The total capitalisation of cryptocurrencies has fallen by $730 billion in 100 days. CryptoQuant calls this an “unprecedented rate of capital outflow,” which is accelerating the contraction of the crypto market.

Retail traders are actively buying BTC at every dip, while institutional investors have sold a “huge amount” of the asset over the past five weeks, Santiment notes.

The situation is exacerbated by a negative trend in Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics — on-chain transaction volumes, the number of new addresses, and network growth rates are steadily declining.

In the coming weeks, BTC could break through the $60,000 mark and fall to support levels around $50,000–55,000. By the end of the year, Bitcoin could fall even lower, warns crypto industry veteran and Ballet CEO Bobby Lee.

Mining company Bitdeer sold its entire stock of bitcoins to support its operations — about 943 BTC. Miners’ revenues have been steadily declining since October 2025.

BNP Paribas has chosen Ethereum for a pilot project to explore the possibilities of tokenising money market funds.

Germany’s business sentiment improved in February, with the Ifo Institute Business Climate Index rising from 87.6 to 88.6, slightly above expectations of 88.4. Current Assessment Index climbed notably from 85.6 to 87.6, beating forecasts of 86.1. Expectations Index edged up from 89.6 to 90.5, in line with consensus.

Sector breakdown shows broad-based improvement. Manufacturing sentiment rose from -12.3 to -11.3, while services moved back into positive territory at 0.1 from -2.6. Construction also improved, narrowing losses from -14.3 to -11.5. Trade as the weakest component, slipping further to -21.8 from -21.1.

The institute noted companies were more satisfied with current conditions and increasingly optimistic about the outlook, describing the data as “first signs of recovery.” While levels remain subdued by historical standards, February’s improvement reinforces the view that Germany may be emerging from stagnation, offering cautious support to broader Eurozone growth expectations.

Full German Ifo release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.27; (P) 182.68; (R1) 183.14; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays mildly on the upside this point. Fall from 186.86 might have completed after hitting 38.2% retracement of 172.24 to 186.86 at 181.27. Stronger rebound would be seen back to retest 186.22/86 resistance zone. However, sustained break of 181.27 will argue that fall from 186.86 is correcting whole up trend from 154.77, and bring deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD and break of 55 D EMA, a medium term top could be formed at 186.86 already. Deeper correction would be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 186.86 at 174.60 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 186.86 will resume larger up trend to 78.6% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 208.39; (P) 209.03; (R1) 209.68; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 207.20 will extend the corrective fall from 214.98 to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. Nevertheless, firm break of 209.68 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, considering the break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.68), a medium term top could be formed at 214.98. Deeper correction would be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. On the upside, break of 214.98 will resume larger up trend from from 123.94 (2020 low), and target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8727; (P) 0.8738; (R1) 0.8751; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral with focus on 0.8744 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that fall from 0.8863 has completed as a correction at 0.8661. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8663 high. On the downside, break of 0.8685 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8611. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618 will carry larger bearish implications and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8636) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6588; (P) 1.6672; (R1) 1.6716; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD above 1.6620 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.6830 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6620 will resume the larger decline from 1.8554 to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next. However, firm break of 1.6830 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9124; (P) 0.9133; (R1) 0.9151; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and consolidations continues above 0.9092. Stronger rebound might be seen but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9092 at 0.9207. On the downside, firm break of 0.9092 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress with falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9326) intact. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.