Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8725; (P) 0.8738; (R1) 0.8747; More…

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral with focus on 0.8744 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that fall from 0.8863 has completed as a correction at 0.8661. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8663 high. On the downside, break of 0.8685 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8611. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618 will carry larger bearish implications and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8636) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6651; (P) 1.6691; (R1) 1.6743; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.6620 is still in progress. Further decline is expected with 1.6830 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6620 will resume the larger decline from 1.8554 to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next. However, firm break of 1.6830 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9119; (P) 0.9134; (R1) 0.9147; More....

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as consolidations continue above 0.9092. Stronger rebound might be seen but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9092 at 0.9207. On the downside, firm break of 0.9092 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress with falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9326) intact. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1762; (P) 1.1798; (R1) 1.1822; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Near term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 temporary low will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.10; (P) 154.57; (R1) 155.14; More...

USD/JPY's rise from 152.25 resumed by breaking through 155.63 and intraday bias is back on the upside for 157.65 resistance first. Firm break there will target a retest on 159.44 high. On the downside, below 153.98 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a corrective pattern. Also, rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.93) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3468; (P) 1.3501; (R1) 1.3527; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. For now, fall from 1.3867 is seen as correcting the whole rise from 1.2099. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3711 resistance holds. Below 1.3432 will target 1.3342 support first. Firm break there will solidify this case, and target 161.8% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3507 from 1.3711 at 1.3129.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7717; (P) 0.7742; (R1) 0.7775; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment and consolidation pattern from 0.7603 is still in progress. In case of stronger rise, upside upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7832) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that a larger scale corrective bounce in underway and target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3663; (P) 1.3683; (R1) 1.3718; More...

No change in USD/CAD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidations from 1.3480 is in progress and stronger rebound might be seen. But upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3735) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 1..3502 will bring retest of 1.3480 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will bring further rise to 1.3927 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Markets on both sides of the Atlantic kicked off the week on a sour note, as Donald Trump’s latest tariff shake-up offered little for businesses and investors to cheer. European carmakers were among the hardest hit after EU leaders decided to freeze ratification of the trade deal signed last summer. They want clarification on the proposed 15% global tariff — what it covers and how long it would last — before moving forward. The US President expressed frustration, but signing an agreement without fully understanding the details is not the European way. As a result, the deal risks unravelling before it is even implemented — a significant waste of time and political capital.

Elsewhere, the AI fear trade spilled over into delivery and payment stocks after research from Citrini outlined a hypothetical — not predictive — scenario in which rapid AI disruption could trigger mass white-collar unemployment within two years, leading to weaker spending, software-loan defaults and broader economic contraction. DoorDash fell more than 6%, American Express more than 7%, Mastercard and Visa lost around 4–5%, and Uber dropped over 4%.

Yet if we follow that scenario to its logical conclusion — that AI destroys jobs and demand — it would ultimately undermine the very incentive to invest in AI. If no one is employed and no one can consume, there is little reason to produce, whether you are Adobe or McDonald’s. The narrative sounds apocalyptic.

Markets appear to be entering a phase where extreme scenarios generate outsized reactions — with one notable exception that warrants genuine caution: capital flows within the software-financing ecosystem.

Software stocks continue to look like falling knives — hardly inviting buyers to step in. But more concerning is that investors are seeking liquidity from instruments tied to software companies, including private credit vehicles.

This is where Blue Owl enters the picture. Blue Owl Capital, a major US alternative asset manager specialising in private credit, including loans to software companies, announced last week that it would halt redemptions and sell more than $1 billion in loans to insurers and large pension funds to manage liquidity pressures. The core issue is a classic liquidity mismatch: as private credit became more accessible to smaller investors with shorter time horizons, the risk of redemption pressure increased. When capital retreats amid rising leverage concerns, inflows and outflows no longer align. Private markets are not designed for sudden exits.

However, selling software-backed loans to insurers and pension funds effectively transfers that leverage — and that risk — to institutions that safeguard long-term household savings. While these are long-horizon investors, their broad exposure means that any mispricing of risk could have far-reaching consequences.

The comparison with past credit cycles is uncomfortable: when leverage migrates rather than disappears, vulnerabilities can resurface elsewhere in the system (think of subprime crisis). If such stress were to build, AI would not be the culprit — financial structuring would.

In short, when a heavyweight such as Blue Owl — focused on supposedly resilient enterprise software debt — restricts redemptions, it signals that leverage may be catching up with slowing growth, leaving broader economy vulnerable.

At the same time, heavy AI-related capital expenditure by Big Tech is no longer unequivocally reassuring investors. As AI fears spill into non-technology sectors, the rotation trade comes under pressure.

In this environment, gold appears to be reclaiming its safe-haven status. The price of an ounce rose more than 2% as the Nasdaq 100 fell 1%, restoring a healthier negative correlation after gold had recently been caught in broader risk selloffs. US 10-year Treasuries also saw demand, despite concerns that shifting trade policies could weigh on tariff revenues.

Elsewhere, China returned from the Lunar New Year holiday to a mixed backdrop, as the new tariff regime lowers effective tariff costs for countries such as Brazil, India, Canada, Mexico and Vietnam. By contrast, the EU and the UK — which believed they had secured favourable trade arrangements — now appear more exposed under the latest reshuffle. With uncertainty high and markets near record levels, the risk of a correction is rising. A correction, however, would also create opportunities once volatility subsides.

Finally, crude oil continues to advance on rising speculation about a potential US military operation involving Iran, even as nuclear talks persist. US crude is approaching the $68 per barrel level on geopolitical concerns. Further escalation could push prices beyond $70 and potentially toward $80 per barrel. However, geopolitically driven rallies tend to prove temporary, suggesting that any sharp upside move may eventually give way to a correction. Timing will be critical. In the meantime, energy stocks continue to outperform sectors pressured by AI fears. If one sector is structurally insulated from AI anxiety, it may well be energy: AI infrastructure is power-intensive, and the rapid expansion of data centres implies sustained demand for energy providers.

In focus today

From the US, the Conference Board's February consumer confidence index is due for release. The previous edition showed a clear weakening in household sentiment. ADP's weekly private sector employment estimate will also be released. In the afternoon, Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic and Boston Fed's Susan Collins will be on the wires. Overnight European time, US president Trump will give the annual State of the Union speech.

In Hungary, the Central Bank of Hungary is expected to deliver its rate decision. We forecast a cut to 6.25% in line with consensus.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In China, the People's Bank of China held its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, as widely expected.
What happened yesterday

In Germany, the Ifo index surprised on the upside in February like the PMIs in another positive signal for the economy. Both the assessment of the current situation and expectations rose. The current situation is now back at the levels seen last summer painting a picture of a slowly rebounding economy.

In Brussels, the European Parliament postponed ratification of the EU-US trade deal amid concerns that Trump's new unilateral 15% tariff breaches the 'Turnberry accord' agreed last summer. Meanwhile, China has urged Washington to remove unilateral tariffs, India has delayed planned trade talks, and the UK has warned that "nothing is off the table" if the US fails to honour their 10% tariff deal. Today, the global tariff will start at 10%, with the administration working towards raising it to 15% under a separate order that Trump has yet to sign.

In the US, Fed Governor Waller stated that recent productivity growth is unrelated to AI. He noted that falling vacancy rates without rising unemployment would be unusual and pointed to declining labour demand outpacing supply over the past year. This would imply a weakening labour market balance, which supports the case for further rate cuts.

Equities: Global equities were on the backfooting yesterday declining 0.8%, with the onset of the decline starting on US open. S&P500 declined 1.0%, Nasdaq, 1.1% while Russell2000 was down 1.6%. Stoxx600 was down 0.5%. The biggest declines were in the financials and consumer discretionary, where the asset management companies and banks were hit the most in the former category and automobiles in the latter. Consumer stables and health care were the biggest winners yesterday. That said, when looking across the equity space, the cross-moving theme for yesterday's decliners were amongst AI exposed companies. Overnight, futures are up, and Asia mixed.

FI and FX: Negative risk-sentiment with renewed AI fears pushed US stocks lower with AI exposed companies being among the largest losers. US treasury rates declined and cryptocurrencies experienced once more a negative day. EUR/USD fell back below the 1.18 level yesterday in line with the broader risk sentiment as the rally following US Supreme Court's ruling against IEEPA tariffs faded. EUR/SEK and NOK/SEK traded both higher during yesterday's session, consistent with historic patterns where scandies tend to weaken in a risk-off environment. Today's focus will be on President Trumps State of the Union speech which is supposed to start at 9:00 p.m. ET.