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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1689; (P) 1.1714; (R1) 1.1751; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 1.1739 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1622) will argue that rebound from 1.1408 has completed as a corrective move, and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1513). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.98; (P) 159.23; (R1) 159.56; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidations from 160.45 could still extend further. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 155.24) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3422; (P) 1.3451; (R1) 1.3491; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.3483 will resume the rebound from 1.3158, and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596. Firm break there will bring retest of 1.3867 high. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3348) will bring retest of 1.3158 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7859; (P) 0.7888; (R1) 0.7921; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained trading below 0.7877 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7874) will argue that the rise from 0.7603 has completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.7770 and below. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.7925 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8041.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8081) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7047; (P) 0.7071; (R1) 0.7089; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. On the upside, above 0.7094 temporary top will extend the rebound from 0.6832 to retest 0.7187 high. Strong resistance could be seen there on first attempt. On the downside, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6994) will suggest that the corrective pattern from 0.7187 has started the third leg. Deeper fall should then be seen to 0.6832 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.

Markets

Talks between the US and Iran failed this weekend. The diametrically opposed US 15-point plan and Iran’s 10-point version turned out to be a weak foundation after all. JD Vance said that Iran refused to burry its nuclear ambitions, singling out one specific issue as reason for the collapse. Iran said its delegation approached the meeting in Islamabad in good faith, but that the US failed to gain Iranian officials’ trust. To add more and new pressure on Iran, the US announced a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from today 10 am ET (4pm CET). By effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the US wants to squeeze out Iranian oil (revenues) while avoiding having to seize the oil export hub (Kharg island). Indirectly, it might lead to some Chinese pressure as the country is the main buyer of Iranian oil. Simultaneously with the start of the “open for all or close for all” policy, the US navy will sweep the Straight in search of sea mines. Iran reacted that military vessels attempting to approach Hormuz under any pretext would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. US President Trump reacted, amongst others, by repeating his military threat in case “any Iranian fires at us”. This weekend’s developments push Brent crude prices (June contract) back above $100/b. They rise from just above $94/b on Friday to currently more than $102/b. US Treasuries cede ground with the curve currently bear flattening. US yields add 3 to 4 bps. The dollar’s gains are moderate at best (EUR/USD 1.1685 from 1.1730). Asian stock markets lose around 1%-1.5% after last week’s impressive short squeeze. The damage today is way smaller than last Monday’s relief rally as the ceasefire, while fragile, still stands. That gives both parties slightly over a week to get back on speaking terms. An end to the ceasefire is the trigger point to really dent risk sentiment. On bond markets, there’s the oil perspective. We’ve already moved beyond the point where higher energy prices start having non-linear effects on other prices/the real economy as well. Central bankers suggested they’ll use a more agile approach this time around to shield those upward inflation risks. From tomorrow on, several of them including ECB Lagarde and BoE Bailey have the opportunity to give an update on their reaction functions at the annual IMF/World Bank meetings. Even since the start of the ceasefire last week, money markets didn’t (completely) close the door on a near-term, April, rate hike especially in Europe. June action (and later) is more of a done deal. Today’s eco calendar is empty, leaving room for the Iran trade (higher energy prices) to play out.

News & Views

Peter Magyar’s Tisza party secured a landslide victory in yesterday’s Hungarian parliamentary elections. Obtaining a projected 138 seats out of the 199 up for grabs means the now-former opposition party has a two-thirds majority. Tisza has the power to rewrite the constitution and restore what the European Commission has slammed as breaches to the rule of law and an erosion of democratic standards in 16 years of Orban rule. The latter’s Fidesz party is projected to win 55 seats compared to 133 in 2022. Magyar’s campaign centered around the skyrocketing inflation triggering a cost-of-living crisis, stagnant economic growth, poor public services and endemic corruption. That resonated strongly with the public, which drew en masse to the ballot. The 78% turnout was higher than in any general election since the fall of communism in the 1990s. The victory of the pro-European Tisza puts Hungary on track for smoother European cooperation and the unblocking of some €20bn in funds. The Hungarian forint in early Asian dealings rallies to an almost three-year high around EUR/HUF 367.7.

UK hiring activity deteriorated only slightly last month, the KPMG and REC monthly job report found, with the geopolitical developments so far not having stopped the trend of labour market stabilization. Permanent staff appointments declined only marginally for the second month in a row, while temp billings decreased modestly. The surveyors linked exacerbated uncertainty because of the Middle East war as well as rising costs to the fall. Some companies are pressing ahead with their previously delayed hiring plans and have offered some counterweight but may remain cautious in doing so going forward until the economic fallout of the Gulf conflict becomes clearer. Overall vacancies fell at the softest pace since last May, the third deceleration in a row, suggesting the downturn for labour demand is also easing. With demand still low, however, and candidates rising sharply, starting salaries increased more slowly. Labour supply expanded at the quickest rate in 2026 to date.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3813; (P) 1.3830; (R1) 1.3860; More...

USD/CAD recovered notably today but stays well below 1.3965 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidations could extend and another dip might be seen. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.3840 to 1.3965 at 1.3780 holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3965 will resume the rise from 1.3480. However, sustained break of 1.3780 will argue that the rebound from 1.3840 has completed, and bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.3665 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Markets stayed composed in early trading, with oil holding below crisis levels despite renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude climbed toward $105 after US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough, yet the absence of panic buying signals that traders are not pricing a full supply shock. Dollar edged higher on the headlines, but gains lacked conviction, reflecting a market that is unwinding the “peace premium” and resetting to cautious positioning rather than turning decisively risk-off.

The muted reaction across assets reinforces the idea that markets are shifting into a “vigilance mode” rather than panic. Asian equities traded lower, but losses were contained. Gold eased slightly on Dollar strength yet held firmly around the $4,700 level. The broader picture suggests that while geopolitical risk has re-entered pricing, it has not triggered disorderly repositioning.

The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid. The US-Iran talks, which stretched over 21 hours, ended without tangible process towards a formal agreement. The primary sticking point was Iran’s refusal to provide an affirmative commitment to abandon its nuclear program, while US demands on regional security remained unchanged. Iran’s counter-demands—including the unfreezing of assets, war reparations, and continued control over the Strait of Hormuz—were also rejected. The failure to bridge these gaps underscores the structural difficulty of reaching a comprehensive deal, even as both sides acknowledged the historic nature of the engagement.

Following the talks, US President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy would begin a blockade of ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. However, subsequent clarifications from the US Navy and CENTCOM indicate that enforcement is targeted at vessels linked to Iranian ports. This distinction is crucial. Rather than a blanket shutdown, the blockade functions as a surgical economic measure aimed at curbing Iran’s exports.

Restraint also comes from the timeline. The ceasefire remains in place until April 22, leaving a window for renewed negotiations or policy adjustments. Additionally, markets are still factoring in the possibility that deadlines could be extended once again by Trump, further delaying any definitive escalation.

Looking ahead, macro data will begin to intersect with geopolitical developments. US PPI will serve as the first hard signal of how energy costs are feeding into inflation, while the Fed’s Beige Book may offer early insights into economic conditions under rising uncertainty. In Europe, ECB’s policy accounts could reveal how close policymakers are to a rate hike as rising energy prices push them into a more hawkish stance. UK February GDP data will provide a snapshot of growth momentum ahead of the war. In the Asia-Pacific, another strong Australian jobs report would reinforce expectations of further RBA tightening in May.

In currency markets, Dollar is currently the strongest for the day so far, followed by Loonie and Kiwi. Sterling is the weakest, with Swiss Franc and Aussie also underperforming. Euro and Yen are holding in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.82%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.11%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.11%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.39%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.027 at 2.469.

Oil Hits $105 but No Panic as Reality of Hormuz Blockade Falls Short of Headlines

Oil climbs to $105 after US announces a Hormuz blockade, but markets are not pricing a full-blown supply crisis. Instead, traders are unwinding the “peace premium” and resetting to pre-ceasefire risk levels, as the reality of a "targeted" disruption falls short of headline fears. With supply still flowing and diplomacy not fully collapsed, oil remains in a state of “tense vigilance.” Read more.

New Zealand PSI Drops to 46.0, BNZ Sees Economy Nearing Contraction

New Zealand’s services sector weakened further in March, with PSI falling to 46.0 and all key components remaining in contraction. BNZ now warns the economy could be nearing contraction, prompting a downgrade to its 2026 growth outlook. Read more.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3813; (P) 1.3830; (R1) 1.3860; More...

USD/CAD recovered notably today but stays well below 1.3965 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidations could extend and another dip might be seen. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.3840 to 1.3965 at 1.3780 holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3965 will resume the rise from 1.3480. However, sustained break of 1.3780 will argue that the rebound from 1.3840 has completed, and bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.3665 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

In focus today

Tensions in the Middle East continue to take focus, as uncertainty surrounding the two-week cease-fire gains momentum after no deal was reached in the talks over the weekend.

It is a quieter week for key market events. On Tuesday, the US releases PPI and Sweden publish its final CPI readings. On Thursday, we get the Q1 GDP and the monthly batch of data from China. Euro area final HICP is also due, while the US reports industrial production and manufacturing output. Throughout the week, several ECB and Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

Economic and market news

What happened over the weekend

In Hungary, Péter Magyar's centre-right and pro-EU Tisza party beat Orban's nationalist Fidesz party in Sunday's parliamentary election. Viktor Orban conceded defeat after early results showed the opposition party leading with a projected two‑thirds majority in the 199‑seat parliament. Reported turnout at was record-high at 77.8% versus 67.8% at the previous parliamentary election. With Magyar's election win, the uncertainty surrounding the EU's aid packages to Ukraine and the next EU seven-year-budget is reduced, as there is a much smaller risk that Hungary will block or delay negotiations. Magyar, a former Orbán ally, campaigned on rebuilding trust with the EU and NATO, restoring the rule of law and joining the euro area by 2030. However, Magyar does not signal a clear break from Orbán's approach, shares several core positions and he is not seeking an abrupt cut in ties with Russia or clearly advocating for the provision of military aid to Ukraine.

In the Middle East, the situation remains fragile as the US and Iran over the weekend failed to reach an agreement in peace talks in Pakistan, raising doubts about whether the two-week ceasefire will hold. Disputes especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program appear to remain key sticking points. Iranian officials have not ruled out a second round of talks, even if no new date has been set. After the talks on Sunday, US President Trump announced that the US would launch a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and destroy any mines that Iran had dropped in the Strait. Later, the US military's central command confirmed that the blockade will take place beginning today at 4pm CET, and this morning, President Trump elaborated that the US would block ships entering or exiting Iranian ports. Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned that any military vessel approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be treated as a ceasefire violation and met with a swift, forceful response, heightening the risk of serious escalation.

The oil market reacted swiftly to the breakdown of talks between the US and Iran over the weekend. Brent crude jumped back above USD100/bbl as the market has turned sceptical on the outlook for a near-term resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It traded above USD110/bbl before the ceasefire announcement last week and there is a clear possibility it will rise back to this level of the sides does not restart talks the coming days.

In the US, March flash CPIs were released with headline inflation picking up as expected to 0.9% m/m SA and 3.3% y/y (Feb: 0.3%m/m SA, 2.4% y/y). The sharp increase is driven especially by energy prices that are up 10.9% m/m. Core CPI surprised slightly to the downside at 0.2% m/m against expectations of 0.3% m/m, due to softer services excl. shelter. Overall, it was a dovish report due to the steady development in core goods and services.

Norway's March core inflation held at 3.0% y/y, below the 3.1% y/y consensus and in line with Norges Bank's forecast, while headline inflation was 3.6% y/y, slightly higher than Norges Bank's forecast at 3.5% y/y. The Norwegian wage settlement ended with a central pay raise that is expected to result in overall wage growth of 4.4% in 2026. This is at the upper end of our expectations but is marginally lower than what Norges Bank assumed in the monetary policy report in March. Hence, the outcome should be neutral for Norges Bank. With Norges Bank back in March guiding towards a hike at "one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings", the prints were regarded as more important than usual for the near-term pricing of May vs June as the most likely time for the first hike. With these prints the rate decision in May remains wide open, as markets are pricing approximately a 50/50 chance of a hike.

In Denmark, CPI increased to 1.2% y/y in March from 0.7% y/y in February, a sharp increase but slightly less than our 1.3% y/y forecast, as food prices continued their downward trend. Price surges on gasoline and diesel were especially the big inflation drivers in March.

Equities: Equity futures are pointing to an opening south of -1% today, mirroring the sell-off across Asia as the first round of negotiations between the US and Iran over the weekend failed. However, US markets were lower already on Friday, with the S&P 500 closing down -0.1% and HY credits -0.4%, despite solid inflation figures. In contrast, Stoxx 600 closed up 0.4% and OMX Nordic surged 1.3%, so we should expect a catch-down effect amplifying negative reaction in our markets today. Interestingly, the tech sector was one of the best-performing sectors in the US on Friday, despite software continuing to sell off. Semis could more than compensate for this weakness, however, which is interesting - and in line with our views, outlined in our equity strategy piece published last week. Materials and real estate also fared well, while it was defensive sectors like health care and staples selling off. Hence, risk appetite was fully visible throughout last week despite the negative closing.

FI and FX: Brent crude gap opens above US 100 per barrel on Monday morning after the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement over the weekend. Consequently, equities and equity futures are in red and the USD a bit stronger. US Treasury yields are modestly higher with 10y at 4.35%. EUR/USD trades at 1.1690, EUR/SEK sits at 10.90 after a 10-figure rebound in the US session on Friday and EUR/NOK starts the week at 11.15. The HUF is supported by the outcome in the Hungarian election where Orban was defeated. EUR/HUF drops almost 2% to just below 368, the lowest level since mid-2023.

Oil prices climbed back toward $105 after the latest escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, but markets have stopped well short of panic pricing. Despite strong headlines around a US "total blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz following inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad, the response has been controlled rather than explosive. The moves in Brent and WTI crude reflects a reversal of the earlier “peace premium”, with traders resetting to pre-ceasefire risk levels—unwinding expectations of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough without fully pricing a worst-case disruption scenario.

Targeted vs. Total Blockade

The muted reaction points to a critical nuance: the difference between a "targeted" and "total" blockade. US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric was sweeping, declaring that all ships entering or leaving the Strait would be blocked. However, the operational reality has been far more contained.

US Navy and CENTCOM clarifications indicate that enforcement is focused on vessels linked to Iranian ports. This effectively removes around 1.5–2 million barrels per day of Iranian exports, rather than shutting down the entire artery of global energy flows.

This distinction matters. While Iranian supply is significant, it is not system-critical in the same way as the full Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 15–18 million barrels per day. As long as flows from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE remain uninterrupted, the market avoids a full-scale supply shock.

Moreover, Iranian oil has long been constrained by sanctions and often routed through a “shadow fleet.” Its removal, while disruptive, is not an unknown risk. This helps explain why markets have adjusted rather than panicked.

Diplomatic "Door Ajar"

A second key factor is that the diplomatic door remains open. While the Islamabad talks failed to produce a framework, they did not collapse into confrontation. Both sides acknowledged the engagement, and the ceasefire technically remains in place until April 22. Markets are interpreting the blockade as a high-stakes negotiating tool rather than a definitive step toward war.

114.81 as key level for Brent

Technically, Brent’s rebound from 93.30 suggests near-term upside risk remains, but gains are likely capped by 114.81 resistance without clear escalation. On the downside, a break below 96.87 minor support would reopen bearish momentum toward 90.

However, a decisive break above 114.81 would signal that markets are shifting into full escalation pricing, opening the path for a rapid move through the 120 crisis threshold.