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USD/CHF's extended decline today suggests that rebound form 0.7760 has completed at 0.7960. Fall from 0.8041 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.7760 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7906 at 0.7741. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7906 holds, in case of recovery .

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8028) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 0.7183 resistance will suggest that pullback from 0.7277 has completed. Stronger rally should then be seen to retest 0.7277 high. However, decisive break of 0.7076 will indicate that larger scale correction is underway and target 0.6832 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.3549 is in progress and it's seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.3480. Further rally should be seen to 1.3965 resistance. On the downside, below 1.3729 support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Break of 214.40 resistance suggests that GBP/JPY's rebound from 210.43 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 216.58 high. Strong resistance should be seen there to cap upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 213.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.27) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 0.8740 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.6108 is tentatively seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.6125. Above 0.6831 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.6437) and above. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6108 will resume the larger down trend from 1.8554.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.6984) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/CHF's fall from 0.9264 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Rebound from 0.8979 should have completed at 0.9264. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 0.8979 low first. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9167 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9252) suggests that the down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.

EUR/USD began the week around 1.1600. The main currency pair closed last week virtually unchanged. Markets continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Despite ongoing uncertainty, a series of conflicting signals from the US and Iran has bolstered investor hopes for a possible diplomatic agreement.

At the same time, oil prices remain approximately 50% higher than pre-conflict levels. This dynamic continues to sustain inflationary pressure, forcing major central banks to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy.

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed that most Fed officials still allow for the possibility of additional rate hikes, particularly if inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target.

Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

US markets will be closed on Monday, so volatility in EUR/USD is expected to be minimal.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1616, currently extending up to 1.1640. A move lower to 1.1600 (testing from above) is likely, followed by a rise towards 1.1660. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of the next growth wave to the 1.1640 level. A decline to 1.1600 is likely, followed by a rise to 1.1660, and another decline to 1.1555. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and pointing firmly downwards to 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is trading quietly at the start of the week, with markets caught between geopolitical hopes and persistent inflationary pressures. While conflicting signals from the US and Iran have raised expectations of a potential diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices remain sharply elevated, around 50% above pre-conflict levels, keeping central banks on alert. FOMC minutes revealed that most Fed officials still see the possibility of additional rate hikes if inflation stays above target, and markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point hike by year-end. With US markets closed for a holiday, volatility is expected to remain subdued. Technically, near-term downside towards 1.1600 and potentially 1.1555 appears likely before any potential bounce.

Gold and Silver rebounded notably today as oil prices extended their sharp decline and markets cautiously increased bets that at least a US-Iran ceasefire expansion/extension may be approaching.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged as much in New Delhi, saying there was a “pretty solid thing on the table” involving reopening the strait and entering “a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter.” Meanwhile, Donald Trump described during the weekend that the arrangement as a “Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE” that had been “largely negotiated.”

Meanwhile, it's also reported that Iran had agreed “in principle” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade and Tehran disposing of its highly enriched uranium. But the phrase “in principle” is doing enormous work right now. There is still no confirmation on what the actual agreement looks like, who controls transit through Hormuz, or whether enriched uranium disposal terms can realistically be finalized.

That combination of cautious optimism and lingering skepticism explains why precious metals are rebounding without fully breaking out. Markets are not yet pricing genuine normalization of global energy flows. Oil may be falling, but traders still want proof that Hormuz will truly reopen before aggressively unwinding geopolitical premiums across markets.

Technically, Gold's fall from 4889.24 are seen as a corrective three-wave move. Firm break of 4589.16 resistance will argue that it has already completed at 4453.47. In this case, further rise should be seen to 4773.50 resistance to confirm this bullish case.

In case of another decline, strong support should be seen from 61.8% retracement of 4098.45 to 4889.24 at 4400.53 to contain downside.

For Silver, break of 78.87 resistance will suggest that fall from 89.37 has completed at 73.08, ahead of 70.83 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 60.97 to 89.37 at 71.81). Rise from 73.08 would then be seen as the second leg of the sideway pattern from 89.37, and should target this resistance first.

Rejection of 78.87 might bring another fall, but mentioned 70.83/71.81 should hold to bring rebound.

Overview: EURUSD opened with a bullish gap, reclaiming 1.1600, yet caution remains warranted as the pair trades below a dense SMA cluster and the uptrend line, keeping the near-term bias neutral despite the rebound from last week’s 1.1575 low.

Momentum: Momentum is still subdued, with the RSI and MACD in negative territory, though the RSI is edging higher, suggesting early signs of stabilization.

Bullish scenario: A decisive break above the 20-day SMA just below 1.1700 - around 1.1685, could pave the way for a retest of monthly highs near 1.1787, and potentially the April 17 peak at 1.1845.

Risk: A break below 1.1600 may reinforce the neutral outlook in the near term, while a breach of 1.1575 could trigger renewed downside pressure.