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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7727; (P) 0.7746; (R1) 0.7762; More….

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidation pattern from 0.7603 is still in progress. In case of stronger rise, upside upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7828) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that a larger scale corrective bounce in underway and target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.86; (P) 155.57; (R1) 156.61; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside as rise form 152.25 extends higher today. Firm break of 157.65 resistance will target a retest on 159.44 high. On the downside, below 155.34 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a corrective pattern. Also, rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.93) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Yen is firmly back in its traditional inverse relationship with global risk sentiment. Today’s broad-based selloff in the currency moved in tandem with a powerful equity rally stretching from Asia to Europe. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 surged past 58,000 for the first time, while the KOSPI smashed through the 6,000 level in a decisive breakout. The move reflects strong tech momentum and persistent dip-buying behavior.

The strength extended into Europe. The FTSE 100, CAC 40, and Euro Stoxx 50 all hit fresh record highs, underscoring the breadth of the rally. Strong 2025 earnings from HSBC Holdings helped lift the broader European banking sector. At the same time, AI remains a tailwind. European technology stocks are benefiting from global capex optimism, with markets positioning ahead of Nvidia’s earnings due late Wednesday, seen as a key catalyst for the next leg.

Markets also appear to be shrugging off recent US tariff turbulence. While policy direction remains fluid, investors are treating trade tensions as a manageable structural factor rather than a trigger for de-risking.

For Yen, however, domestic factors are compounding the external pressure. Japan’s government nominated two academics viewed as strong stimulus advocates to the BoJ board. Toichiro Asada, a known reflationist, will replace Asahi Noguchi at the end of March, while Ayano Sato will succeed Junko Nakagawa later this year.

The shift in board composition could influence discussions around the pace and timing of further tightening. Although the BoJ is expected to continue gradual normalization, the probability of a hike in March or April has diminished. The central bank is likely to maintain its broader tightening path, but caution around timing now dominates expectations.

In FX markets, Yen is the weakest performer of the day so far, followed by Swiss Franc and Dollar. Australian Dollar leads gains on stronger CPI, though momentum was tempered by cautious remarks from RBA Governor Michele Bullock. Sterling and Kiwi follow, while Euro and Loonie sit mid-pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 1.00%. DAX is up 0.41%. CAC is up 0.42%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.031 at 4.335. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.011 at 2.721. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 2.20%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.66%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.72%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.26%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.034 to 2.147.

Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.7% in January, disinflation trend continues

Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.7% year-on-year in January, down from 2.0% in December. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was also finalized at 2.2% year-on-year, slipping from 2.3% previously.

The breakdown shows services remained the primary driver in Eurozone inflation, contributing 1.45 percentage points to the annual rate. Food, alcohol and tobacco added 0.51 percentage points, while non-energy industrial goods contributed 0.09. Energy continued to act as a drag, subtracting -0.39 percentage points from overall inflation.

Across the broader EU, CPI slowed to 2.0% from 2.3%. Inflation declined in 23 member states compared with December. France (0.4%), Denmark (0.6%), Finland and Italy (both 1.0%) recorded the lowest rates. Romania (8.5%), Slovakia (4.3%) and Estonia (3.8%) were at the top of the range. The data reinforce the narrative of broad-based disinflation, though services inflation remains relatively sticky.

RBA’s Bullock tempers post-CPI tightening bets

RBA Governor Michele Bullock struck a measured tone in a fireside chat today, saying the Australian economy and labor market remain “a little bit tight,” while inflation is “a little bit elevated” but not "taking off again". The comments came after stronger-than-expected CPI data earlier in the day had fueled a sharp rise in rate hike expectations.

Bullock emphasized that it would take time for the RBA to determine its next move, adding that policymakers would "have to be patient” . Her remarks contrasted with the market’s earlier reaction, which had pushed the probability of a May hike from 84% to 95%, and lifted expectations of a third increase by year-end from 40% to 60%.

Following her speech, rate-sensitive markets pared gains, with traders dialing back expectations of rapid tightening.

Australia trimmed mean CPI climbs to 3.4%, RBA hike seen inevitable

Australia’s monthly CPI for January came in hotter than expected, reinforcing expectations of further tightening from the RBA. Headline inflation held unchanged at 3.8% yoy, above the 3.7% consensus and marking the joint highest reading since mid-2024.

More concerning for policymakers, trimmed mean CPI rose from 3.3% yoy to 3.4%, also exceeding forecasts and standing at its highest level since Q3 2024. Core inflation has now been at or above 3% since July 2025, remaining clearly outside the RBA’s 2–3% target band.

Housing (+6.8%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.1%), recreation and culture (+3.7%), were the largest contributors to annual price pressures.

Markets had already leaned toward a May rate hike, and today’s data does little to challenge that view. Some economists argue the RBA may be “a little bit behind the curve,” risking a scenario where inflation becomes entrenched and requires more forceful tightening later. With price pressures proving persistent, another rate increase is increasingly viewed as close to inevitable.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.86; (P) 155.57; (R1) 156.61; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside as rise form 152.25 extends higher today. Firm break of 157.65 resistance will target a retest on 159.44 high. On the downside, below 155.34 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a corrective pattern. Also, rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.93) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

• Euro Area annual inflation cooled to 1.7% in January 2026, the lowest level since September 2024.
• Core inflation, stripping out volatile items like energy and food, dropped to 2.2%, its lowest point since October 2021.
• The EUR/USD pair is struggling for direction around the 1.1800 handle, with its next move dependent on the US dollar's strength and central bank commentary.

EUR/USD has continued to struggle for direction around the 1.1800 handle. For the last 5 days EUR/USD has traded between the 1.1840-1.1740 handles with breakout not yet forthcoming.

Market participants had eyed the Euro CPI release as a potential catalyst for a breakout, however the data failed to inspire a bullish move for the Euro. The MoM inflation was actually worse than expected in the final number, dropping to -0.6% compared to the forecast of -0.5%.

Euro Area inflation at lowest level since September 2024

In January 2026, the Euro Area saw a notable cooling in cost pressures as annual inflation was confirmed at 1.7%, a drop from the 2.0% recorded in December.

This mark represents the lowest inflation level since September 2024, a shift that occurred alongside a significant strengthening of the euro, which surpassed the $1.20 threshold, its highest valuation in over four years.

This currency appreciation helped dampen price growth across several sectors; specifically, services inflation moderated to 3.2%, and the cost of processed food, alcohol, and tobacco slowed slightly to 2.0%. The most dramatic downward pressure came from energy prices, which plummeted by 4.0% in January, more than doubling the pace of the decline seen the previous month.

Despite the general downward trend, some sectors experienced upward pressure. Inflation for unprocessed food climbed to 4.2%, up from 3.5% in December, while non-energy industrial goods saw a marginal uptick to 0.4%.

However, the underlying trend remained soft, as evidenced by core inflation which strips out volatile items like energy and food, falling to 2.2%. This is a significant milestone, marking its lowest point since October 2021.

The slowdown was visible across most of the bloc’s major economies, though the intensity varied by country.

Source: EuroStat

What comes next for EUR/USD?

EUR/USDs next move may depend on the US dollar which has been seeing a resurgence of late. If this persists coupled with the low inflation the EU, EUR/USD could continue its grind lower.

Chatter from Federal Reserve policymakers yesterday aided the USD as they adopted a more hawkish rhetoric. Later in the US session we have a host of Fed policymakers speaking. Are we going to get a similar story to yesterday?

Tomorrow’s speech by ECB President Lagarde at the EU Parliament is the only potential domestic driver for the euro this week, ahead of flash CPI figures on Friday.

As much as chatter around the end of the ‘Trump trade’ has intensified, there are still concentration risks around the US which could hamper the US dollar and thus keep EUR/USD holding the line for now.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis on EUR/USD

EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation phase following a significant rally and subsequent sharp rejection from the 1.2000 psychological resistance level.

Price action is currently being squeezed between a descending trendline and a key horizontal support zone with price right at the apex meaning a breakout is imminent.

This descending triangle pattern suggests that selling pressure is gradually increasing. However, the horizontal support at 1.1769 is holding firm for now.

The pair is trading slightly above its 100-day SMA. This moving average is sloping upward, suggesting that the broader medium-term trend still has a bullish bias, even if the short-term momentum is cooling off.

A few mixed signals but a breakout to the upside of the triangle pattern could facilitate a move higher as the 100-day SMA does hint a overall bullish bias.

Immediate resistance rests at the 1.1840 handle before the 1.1920 and 1.2000 psychological level come into focus.

A move to the downside may find support at the 1.1700 handle. The next target to the downside is the long-term ascending trendline near 1.1600.

EUR/USD Daily Chart, February 25, 2026

Source:TradingView.com

RBA Governor Michele Bullock struck a measured tone in a fireside chat today, saying the Australian economy and labor market remain “a little bit tight,” while inflation is “a little bit elevated” but not "taking off again". The comments came after stronger-than-expected CPI data earlier in the day had fueled a sharp rise in rate hike expectations.

Bullock emphasized that it would take time for the RBA to determine its next move, adding that policymakers would "have to be patient” . Her remarks contrasted with the market’s earlier reaction, which had pushed the probability of a May hike from 84% to 95%, and lifted expectations of a third increase by year-end from 40% to 60%.

Following her speech, rate-sensitive markets pared gains, with traders dialing back expectations of rapid tightening.

AUDUSD jumped to two-week high (0.7116) in early Wednesday’s trading following release of Australian CPI data.

Inflation remained elevated and unchanged in January compared to previous month (3.8%; Core 3.4% - the highest in 16 months) beating forecasts (3.3%; Core 3.7%) and boosting bets for another rate hike, after the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85% earlier this month, reversing its path after three rate cuts in 2025.

January numbers contribute to the central bank’s expectations that inflation would rise to 4.2% in the first six months of this year (Core inflation was expected to accelerate to 3.7%), as economic growth gains pace and the labor market remains tight.

However, subsequent relatively dovish comments from RBA Governor Bullock (signal that the RBA will likely stay on hold in March policy meeting) poured cold water on fresh bulls and pushed the price lower, to reverse about 50% of post-data advance.

Technical picture on daily chart remains bullish overall, as the price action holds in extended consolidation under new three-year high (0.7147).

Broader bullish structure is expected to remain intact while the price stays above 0.70 zone (psychological/recent range floor/near 50% retracement of 0.6896/0.7147 upleg).

On the other hand, loss of 0.70 handle would put immediate bulls on hold for deeper pullback that would unmask next trigger at 0.6870 (Feb 6 higher low).

Res: 0.7116; 0.7147; 0.7207; 0.7265.
Sup: 0.7043; 0.7000; 0.6975; 0.6896.

Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.7% year-on-year in January, down from 2.0% in December. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was also finalized at 2.2% year-on-year, slipping from 2.3% previously.

The breakdown shows services remained the primary driver in Eurozone inflation, contributing 1.45 percentage points to the annual rate. Food, alcohol and tobacco added 0.51 percentage points, while non-energy industrial goods contributed 0.09. Energy continued to act as a drag, subtracting -0.39 percentage points from overall inflation.

Across the broader EU, CPI slowed to 2.0% from 2.3%. Inflation declined in 23 member states compared with December. France (0.4%), Denmark (0.6%), Finland and Italy (both 1.0%) recorded the lowest rates. Romania (8.5%), Slovakia (4.3%) and Estonia (3.8%) were at the top of the range. The data reinforce the narrative of broad-based disinflation, though services inflation remains relatively sticky.

Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

GBP/USD continues to rise on Wednesday, reaching 1.3516.

Following recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, investors are seeking additional clarification on his decision to keep the rate unchanged at the last meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee left the rate unchanged, with a narrow margin.

The market expects two rate cuts in 2026, taking the rate down to 3.25%. However, the timing of the easing remains uncertain. If Bailey signals the possibility of a cut as early as March, the market could begin pricing in more than 50bps of easing this year.

An additional source of pressure stems from US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. The baseline tariff of 10% has already entered into force. However, it remains unclear when an increase to 15% might be introduced.

The focus is also on the by-election in the Gorton and Denton constituency in Manchester, which is seen as an important test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. Political uncertainty is adding to sterling volatility.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3500 level. Today, an expansion towards 1.3560 is possible. Subsequently, a correction towards 1.3494 may follow. After completing this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. If it breaks to the upside, the next target would be 1.3622. If it breaks to the downside, the next target may be 1.3383. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and pointing upward.

On the H1 GBP/USD chart, the market formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3500 and, following an upside breakout, is developing a wave structure towards 1.3560. Subsequently, a downward move towards 1.3500 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 50 level and pointing upward.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD extends its recovery for a fourth consecutive session as markets await clearer signals from BoE Governor Bailey on the timing of potential rate cuts. While the baseline scenario anticipates two reductions this year, any dovish surprise could trigger further repricing. Technically, the pair is building momentum within a broad consolidation range, with near-term resistance at 1.3560 and support at 1.3494. A sustained break above 1.3560 would open the door to 1.3622, while a failure could result in a retest of lower-range levels. Political uncertainty from the upcoming by-election and ongoing US trade policy risks add further volatility. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, but direction will depend on Bailey’s tone and market interpretation.

The second half of February has seen the dollar index strengthen, driven by a combination of bullish factors:

• → A hawkish Fed stance. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting revealed differing views on rate cuts. With inflation remaining resilient, some members even left the door open to further tightening.
• → Rising tensions between the US and Iran, along with uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs, have boosted demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
• → Recent data pointing to solid industrial output and labour market resilience have reinforced confidence in the strength of the US economy.

As a result, an upward trend line (shown in blue) has formed on the DXY chart, increasing the likelihood that the index will finish February in positive territory after three consecutive months of decline.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

On 16 February, when analysing the dollar index (DXY), we:

• → Updated the descending channel (marked in red), originating in November 2025.
• → Highlighted strong demand, reflected in the confident upward trajectory (shown by the arrow) following the brief break below the multi-month low of 96.50 in late January.

Lower highs at points A and B suggest that the upper boundary of the channel continues to act as resistance, while the hesitant price action after breaking the 5 February high indicates waning bullish momentum. This raises the possibility that the blue uptrend line could soon come under pressure from renewed bearish attempts.

On the other hand, there are clear signs of active demand near the key 96.50 level. Therefore, in the longer term, bulls may regain strength and attempt to overturn the broader downtrend.

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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above 1.1780. USD/CHF declined from 0.7770 and is now struggling to stay above 0.7925.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro started a decent upward move from 1.1750 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.7725 and 0.7710 support levels.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.7765 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1745. The Euro cleared 1.1765 to decrease bearish pressure and move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1780. It opened the doors for a move toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1834 swing high to the 1.1766 low.

The first key hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is near a bearish trend line at 1.1800. The next barrier for a fresh increase sits near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.1810. An upside break above 1.1810 might send the pair toward 1.1835.

The next major area of interest for the bears might be 1.1855. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 1.1880. Immediate support on the downside is near the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1785.

A close below 1.1785 could spark more bearish moves and send the pair toward 1.1765. The next major hurdle for the bears might be 1.1745. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone toward 1.1720.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above 0.7765. The US Dollar dropped below 0.7755 to move into a negative zone against the Swiss Franc.

There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7710 swing low to the 0.7768 high. The bears pushed the pair below the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.7945.

On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is 0.7725 and the 76.4% Fib retracement. The first major area of interest could be 0.7710. Any more losses may possibly open the path for a move toward the 0.7675 level in the coming sessions.

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.7940. A clear move above 0.7740 could send the pair to 0.7755 and a major contracting triangle.

The next major barrier for the bulls might be 0.7765, above which the pair could test the 0.7770 level. If there is a clear break above 0.7770, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could even surpass 0.7820.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.