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Gold had a near-perfect macro backdrop to extend higher last week, with Dollar weakness intensifying ahead of the Islamabad talks between the US and Iran. Yet, the rally has struggled to gain traction toward the $5,000 psychological level. The failure to capitalize on favorable fundamentals is beginning to raise questions about whether the current move is running out of momentum.

The loss of upside momentum is becoming apparent. Bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD is showing clear signs of fading strength. The rebound from 4,098.45 is more consistent with a distribution phase than a renewed accumulation cycle. In other words, rather than fresh buying driving prices higher, the market may be seeing gradual profit-taking into strength.

At the same time, Gold is not collapsing. The early-week gap lower today, triggered by the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations, was quickly reversed as Dollar strength faded. This resilience indicates that there is still underlying demand supporting prices, preventing a sharper reversal.

However, this support may prove insufficient to push prices significantly higher. The $5,000 psychological level represents a major barrier, both technically and behaviorally. It is likely to attract selling interest from institutional players looking to lock in gains from lower levels.

Technically, further gains are still possible as long as 4,554.02 minor support holds. The rebound from 4,098.45 could extend through 4,855.12. However, key resistance lies at 61.8% retracement of 5,598.38 to 4,098.45 at 5,025.40. This zone sits just above the 5,000 handle and reinforces the idea of a heavy ceiling. Without a strong catalyst, the probability of sustained gains beyond this region appears limited.

On the downside, a break below 4,554.01 minor support would be an early signal that the rebound has completed. Such a move would shift focus back toward the 4,098.45 low, with scope for an extension toward 4,000 psychological level.

Taken together, while residual demand may support prices in the short term, fading momentum and strong resistance near 5,000 increase the risk that the rally is topping out. Unless a new catalyst emerges to accelerate Dollar weakness, the balance of risks is gradually tilting toward a rejection scenario rather than a sustained breakout.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone, warning that rising crude oil prices and instability in global financial markets could pose fresh risks to Japan’s outlook. Speaking via remarks delivered by Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, Ueda emphasized the need for "vigilance" as Middle East tensions intensify, noting that energy-driven shocks could disrupt both growth and inflation dynamics.

While Ueda maintained that Japan’s gradual economic recovery and solid wage gains are keeping underlying inflation on track toward the 2% target, he highlighted growing uncertainty around the oil outlook. A prolonged conflict could weigh on factory output through supply chain disruptions, potentially widening the output gap and dampening inflation. At the same time, he acknowledged that higher energy costs could lift medium- to long-term inflation expectations, creating a two-sided risk for policymakers.

"If the output gap worsens, that could weigh on underlying inflation. On the other hand, if rising crude oil prices heighten the public's medium- and long-term inflation expectations, that could push up underlying inflation," he said.

Importantly, Ueda offered no clear signal on the policy path ahead of the April 27–28 meeting. Markets had been looking for clues on a possible rate hike. But for now, BoJ policymakers appear focused on assessing how the evolving geopolitical situation feeds into economic activity, price trends, and financial conditions before making any decisive move.

USD/JPY rose to 159.73 on Monday. The Japanese yen has fallen for a third consecutive day due to a fresh surge in oil prices following the failure of the United States and Iran to reach an agreement at talks in Islamabad.

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to block the Strait of Hormuz and is considering resuming attacks on Iran, dramatically increasing the risks of an escalating global energy crisis.

The protracted conflict is narrowing the Bank of Japan's room for manoeuvre. A split remains within the regulator: some members are concerned about rising inflation, while others worry about the risks of an economic slowdown. The BoJ is scheduled to meet on 27-28 April.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa noted that monetary policy could be used to curb inflation through support for a stronger yen.

The exchange rate is now approaching the key level of 160 per dollar. Previously, this area served as a trigger for currency interventions by the Japanese authorities.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around the 158.88 level and, with an upside breakout, completed a growth wave to 159.82. Today, the beginning of a correction to the 158.88 level is expected, followed by a rise to 160.60. Subsequently, a new downward impulse to 157.70 is anticipated, with the prospect of a continued correction to 156.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is below the zero level and pointing strictly upwards, reflecting the potential for the wave to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market completed a growth wave structure to 159.82. Today, the probability of the next downward wave developing to the 158.88 level (testing from above) will be considered. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20, indicating that downside potential remains in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its three-day rally as failed US-Iran talks in Islamabad triggered a fresh spike in oil prices, with President Trump threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz and resume attacks. The yen remains under pressure, while the Bank of Japan faces internal divisions over how to respond to competing inflation and growth risks. With the pair approaching the psychologically significant 160 level-a previous intervention trigger-markets are on high alert for potential action from Japanese authorities. Technical indicators suggest a possible near-term correction before further upside, but the yen's fate ultimately hinges on whether geopolitical tensions escalate or ease in the coming days.

WTI oil price jumped on Monday, expressing strong concerns of market participants after peace talks between the US and Iran over the weekend failed.

Opening with a gap higher and above psychological $100 level, with the contract price gaining over 5% during early Monday trading, fades optimism for potential solution of the war in the Middle East that put the whole region in fire and threatens to spill over in a domino-effect.

Failure of peace talks and the latest threats of President Trump that the US will close the Strait of Hormuz, raises worries of stronger supply shortage, particularly following Trump’s comments that oil and gas prices will remain elevated through the US midterm election in November, as the latest calculations point to approx. 750,000 barrels per day supply shortage.

Analysts also expressed their worries about wider conflict as Trump said that the US army will close the way out of Hormuz to all ships, awaiting to see reaction from China, in such scenario.

Monday’s price rise hit over 50% retracement of $117.55/$91.09 bear-leg, signaling formation of a higher low and shifting near-term focus to the upside.

Daily studies remain predominantly bullish (strengthening positive momentum / MAs in almost full bullish setup) contributing to supportive factors from recent developments on the fundamental side.

Sustained break above cracked 50% retracement (104.32) to confirm strong bullish stance and expose targets at $107.44 (Fibo 61.8%) and $110.00 (round figure).

Near-term bias is expected to remain with bulls while the price holds above $100.

Res: 104.32; 105.62; 107.44; 110.00
Sup: 102.00; 101.20; 100.00; 97.38

Daily Pivots: (S1) 213.75; (P) 214.17; (R1) 214.85; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 214.98 high. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption, and target 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43. On the downside, below 213.47 minor support will delay the bullish case, and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.47) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.16; (P) 186.53; (R1) 187.13; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Long term up trend is resuming and should target 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98 next. On the downside, below 185.88 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 184.75 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) in in progress and should be ready to resume. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8701; (P) 0.8711; (R1) 0.8720; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.8740. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8675 support holds. Break of 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6528; (P) 1.6572; (R1) 1.6640; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, rebound from 1.6125 could have completed at 1.6842, after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6720). Below 1.6497 will bring retest of 1.6125 low first. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6708 will should resume the rebound from 1.6125 through 1.6842 to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7163) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9226; (P) 0.9243; (R1) 0.9268; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and consolidations from 0.9264 could extend. Further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rebound from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

GBP/USD started a downside correction from 1.3480. USD/CAD is gaining bullish momentum and might clear 1.3880 for more upside.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound rallied toward 1.3500 before the bears appeared.
•  There was a break below a rising channel with support near 1.3410 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3835 pivot zone.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3830 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.3300. The British Pound even climbed above 1.3450 before the bears appeared against the US Dollar.

A high was formed at 1.3485, and the pair started a minor downside correction. The pair traded below 1.3440, a rising channel, the 50-hour simple moving average, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3176 swing low to the 1.3485 high.

Finally, the bulls appeared near 1.3380, and the pair started a consolidation phase. Immediate hurdle on the upside is near 1.3410 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The first major resistance is 1.3480. The main sell zone sits at 1.3500. A close above 1.3500 might spark a steady upward move. The next stop for the bulls might be near 1.3620. Any more gains could lead the pair toward 1.3650 in the near term.

If there is a fresh decline, initial bid zone on the GBP/USD chart sits at 1.3365. The next major area of interest could be 1.3330, the 50% Fib retracement, and a connecting bullish trend line, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.3175.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CAD at FXOpen, the pair formed a strong base above 1.3800. The US Dollar started a fresh increase above 1.3820 and 1.3850 against the Canadian Dollar.

More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3830. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3928 swing high to the 1.3799 low.

The pair is now consolidating above the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is another increase, the pair might face hurdles near 1.3880 and the 61.8% Fib retracement.

A clear upside break above 1.3880 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the pair could test 1.3900. A close above 1.3900 might send the pair toward 1.3930. Any more gains could open the doors for a test of 1.3980.

Initial support is near the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3835. The next key breakdown zone could be 1.3810. The main hurdle for the bears might be 1.3800 on the same USD/CAD chart.

A downside break below 1.3800 could push the pair further lower. The next key area of interest might be 1.3765, below which the pair might visit 1.3720.

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