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Bitcoin remains in red and holding above new three-week low on Monday, deflated by growing uncertainty over US tariffs.

Fresh extension lower cracked important supports at 65.5/65K zone (higher base) but need to register a clear break lower to validate developing negative signal and open way for retest of key 60K support zone (psychological / Feb 6 spike low, the lowest since Oc1 2024).

Firmly bearish daily technical studies support the notion, with falling 10DMA (67800) to cap upticks and keep intact upper breakpoint at 70K.

Res: 67450; 67800; 68700; 70000
Sup: 65800; 65000; 64120; 62060

Gold: ⬆️ Buy

• Gold broke resistance zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 5420.00

Gold recently broke the resistance zone between resistance level 5100.00 (which stopped the earlier impulse wave 1) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward ABC correction (2) from January.

The breakout of the resistance level 5100.00 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from January.

Given the strong multi-month uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5420.00 (former key resistance from January).

Markets

The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) injected a fresh dose of uncertainty by striking down president Trump’s signature IEEPA tariffs end last week. Trump responded by introducing a flat 15% global rate (using a different legal base) that keeps the average tariff rate +/- the same. This Section 122 (balance of payment emergency) levy comes with a max term of 150 days during which the Trump administration will build country- or product-specific cases to apply tariffs based on for example Section 232 (threat to national security and used as basis for current levies on steel, copper and aluminum) or Section 301 (unfair foreign trade policies, used particularly against China). For some, the situation isn’t dramatically different from before. The euro area for example had struck a 15% tariff deal and the exemptions agreed are still applicable today. The European Parliament nevertheless decided to freeze the approval of the deal given the uncertainty. Others, including the UK (10% in the trade deal) are worse off, while the likes of China, India and Brazil see their rates currently lower. Needless to say the latter will now be dragging their feet in the ongoing negotiations. Trump already threatened countries “that play games” with higher tariffs. Apart from what the SCOTUS decision means for the earlier trade deals, there are open questions in terms of tariff repayment to US importers. This matter needs to be brought to lower courts and could spell the beginning of a long legal battle that probably only big-enough companies are willing to fight. It also brings the outsized US deficits back into the attention. In the Congressional Budget Office’s fiscal update earlier this month, tariffs would recoup some $3tn of the $4.7tn (over the next decade) in Trump’s deficit-widening Big Beautiful Bill.

What it all means going forward is impossible to tell at this stage. So markets kicked off today the way you’d expect them to: with caution. European stocks slipped in the red but then gradually recovered. WS opens with 0.5% losses. Core bonds whipsawed and are currently marginally higher on the day, Treasuries outperforming Bunds. Net daily changes in the US vary between -0.4-2.8 bps. Bund yields are down around 1-1.5 bps. The US dollar initially lost ground through rising risk premia but found a stronger footing in European dealings. EUR/USD is now changing hands in the 1.18 area, virtually unchanged from Friday’s closing level (which factored in some minor USD weakness after the SCOTUS ruling got public). There was some volatility in DXY too before steadying near 97.64. JPY outperforms in the G10 landscape, pushing USD/JPY down to 154.6. Sterling trades resilient near the EUR/GBP’s YtD highs (0.873).

News & Views

Statistics Poland today reported stronger than expected January retail sales. On a seasonally adjusted basis, real sales were up 0.5% M/M and 5.1% compared to January 2025. On a non-seasonally adjust basis, sales decreased by 17.8%. Even so, the agency analyzed that sales were higher in most product groups compared to the same period last year. This especially applies to textiles, clothing, footwear (by 17.6%), furniture, radio, TV and household appliances (by 10.5%), pharmaceuticals, cosmetics (by 9.6%). Sales of food, beverages and tobacco products also rose 4.2% Y/Y. A decrease in sales was noted in the group motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts (by 4.5%). Decent sales data come as the National Bank of Poland (NBP) next week holds a policy meeting. Despite decent domestic demand, markets are positioned for the NBP to deliver a finetuning rate cut, lowering the policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75% as inflation (2.2% Y/Y in January) returned to the 2.5% target. The zloty continues to trade within an extremely tight sideways consolidation pattern against the euro with EUR/PLN hovering near 4.22.

The Business Confidence indicator of the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) dropped sharply in February, dropping from -8.8 in January to -13.7 and more than reversing the January uptick. Confidence fell back to a similarly low level as in May of last year. All sectors worsened, except for the building industry. Trade recorded the largest decline in confidence. While demand expectations and forecasts of orders to suppliers improved significantly last month, they fell by even more this month. In the manufacturing industry, all components of the confidence indicator declined. Along with a significant deterioration in the assessment of total order books, expectations concerning both demand and employment turned much more pessimistic while stock levels were viewed considerably more negatively. Confidence in business-related services dropped for the third consecutive month on more dire views on current and future levels of activity.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3438; (P) 1.3476; (R1) 1.3518; More...

GBP/USD is staying in tight range above 1.3432 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. For now, fall from 1.3867 is seen as correcting the whole rise from 1.2099. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3711 resistance holds. Below 1.3432 will target 1.3342 support first. Firm break there will solidify this case, and target 161.8% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3507 from 1.3711 at 1.3129.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7736; (P) 0.7754; (R1) 0.7777; More….

USD/CHF recovered after hitting 55 4H EMA, but stays below 0.7771 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation pattern from 0.7603 could extend further. In case of stronger rise, upside upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7834) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that a larger scale corrective bounce in underway and target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.65; (P) 155.14; (R1) 155.57; More...

USD/JPY recovered after brief initial dip today, but stays below 155.63 temporary top. Intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 155.63 will resume the rally from 152.25 and target 157.65 first. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a corrective pattern. Also rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.93) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Gold extended rally from $4850 zone higher base into fourth consecutive day and hit the highest since Jan 30 in early trading on Monday.

Fresh wave of safe-haven demand was boosted by the latest decision of the US Supreme Court to rule out all Trump’s tariffs that added pressure on US dollar and deepened uncertainty, also fueled by heated geopolitical situation.

Technical picture has further improved on Friday’s close above $5100 (former range top) and has also registered repeated weekly close above $5000 (psychological/50% retracement of $5598/$4402 correction).

Daily Tenkan and Kijun-sen form a bull-cross that contributes to positive signals, although fading bullish momentum and overbought stochastic warning that bulls may face headwinds.

In current fundamental configuration, bulls should remain in control with consolidation / limited dips to ideally hold above $5100 (reverted to support) to offer better levels to re-enter bullish market for acceleration towards $5200/$5300 and $5363 (upper 20-d Bollinger band) in extension.

Res: 5176; 5200; 5300; 5363.
Sup: 5100; 5080; 5053; 5000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1747; (P) 1.1778; (R1) 1.1811; More….

EUR/USD retreated mildly after hitting 55 4H EMA but stays above 1.1740 temporary low. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Near term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Dollar stabilized and recovered notably in early US trading after an initial selloff, supported by remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Waller, widely regarded as one of the more dovish voices on the Federal Reserve Board, signaled that the case for holding rates in March has strengthened following robust January employment data.

Waller was one of the two dovish dissenters at the January FOMC meeting. His openness to a March hold marks a shift in tone and suggests that the balance within the FOMC may be adjusting after the stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report. The data appeared to reduce concerns over labor market deterioration, reshaping the near-term policy debate.

Admittedly, a March hold has long been the market’s base case, with probabilities already near fully priced. Waller’s comments did not dramatically alter immediate expectations. However, the symbolic importance of a prominent dove aligning with the hold narrative carries weight for forward guidance.

Indeed, markets have nudged up the probability of a June hold to around 50%, reflecting the view that easing may be delayed if labor conditions remain firm. Waller’s shift reinforces the perception that rate cuts are not imminent and that policy may remain restrictive longer than previously anticipated.

Meanwhile, global markets continue to weather US tariff uncertainty with relative composure. Major European indices are largely treading water, with only modest losses in Germany’s DAX. US equity futures are softer but far from disorderly.

In a social media post Monday, US President Donald Trump renewed criticism of the Supreme Court following its ruling against his tariff program. He vowed to pursue alternative trade authorities but offered no specifics. For now, markets appear to be waiting for clarity rather than reacting aggressively.

Currency performance reflects selective positioning rather than panic. Yen leads gains, followed by Sterling and Euro, while Dollar and Swiss Franc sit mid-pack. Australian Dollar is the weakest performer, trailed by Kiwi and Loonie, though moves remain measured.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.09%. DAX is down -0.54%. CAC is down -0.02%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.015 at 4.341. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.005 at 2.736. Earlier in Asia, Japan and China were on holidays. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.53%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.47%.

Fed’s Waller: Strong payrolls could tilt his stance towards March hold

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech that recent economic data, particularly January’s employment report, came in “substantially stronger” than expected, suggesting labor market risks may have "diminished". He noted that the initial estimate showed the US economy created more jobs in January than in the previous nine months combined, a development that surprised both policymakers and market participants.

Despite the upbeat signal, Waller cautioned that one strong month does not establish a trend. He emphasized that the Fed will receive additional employment and inflation data before the March 17–18 FOMC meeting, along with updates on job openings and retail sales. Only if February data confirm continued labor market strength alongside progress toward the 2% inflation target would his outlook turn “a bit more positive.”

In that scenario, Waller said his policy preference could “tilt toward a pause” at the upcoming meeting. However, he stressed the need for confirmation before adjusting his stance.

Addressing the recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, Waller downplayed its policy implications. He reiterated that tariffs tend to have only temporary effects on inflation and said he focuses on underlying price trends. Following traditional central bank practice, he intends to “look through” tariff-driven price moves, suggesting the ruling is unlikely to significantly alter his view on the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

BoE's Taylor signals 2–3 cuts may be needed to reach neutral

Alan Taylor reinforced his dovish stance in remarks at a Deutsche Bank event in London today, arguing that inflation risks are shifting away from stickiness and toward undershooting the 2% target. He suggested weakening demand and softening labor market now pose greater downside risks to price pressures than previously feared.

While acknowledging that services CPI remains “slightly concerning” at around 4.4%, Taylor described the persistence as a temporary lag rather than a structural issue. He said the broader disinflation trend remains intact, even if services inflation has not cooled as quickly as hoped.

Pointing to what he called a “pessimistic outlook” for the UK job market, Taylor argued that policy remains too restrictive and justified a faster pace of easing. He sees scope for two to three additional rate cuts before the Bank Rate approaches a theoretical neutral level.

Germany Ifo improves to 88.6 in February, recovery signals emerge

Germany’s business sentiment improved in February, with the Ifo Institute Business Climate Index rising from 87.6 to 88.6, slightly above expectations of 88.4. Current Assessment Index climbed notably from 85.6 to 87.6, beating forecasts of 86.1. Expectations Index edged up from 89.6 to 90.5, in line with consensus.

Sector breakdown shows broad-based improvement. Manufacturing sentiment rose from -12.3 to -11.3, while services moved back into positive territory at 0.1 from -2.6. Construction also improved, narrowing losses from -14.3 to -11.5. Trade as the weakest component, slipping further to -21.8 from -21.1.

The institute noted companies were more satisfied with current conditions and increasingly optimistic about the outlook, describing the data as “first signs of recovery.” While levels remain subdued by historical standards, February’s improvement reinforces the view that Germany may be emerging from stagnation, offering cautious support to broader Eurozone growth expectations.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1747; (P) 1.1778; (R1) 1.1811; More….

EUR/USD retreated mildly after hitting 55 4H EMA but stays above 1.1740 temporary low. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Near term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.