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Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has risen by 1.19% over the past 24 hours to $2.45 trillion. The crypto market has weathered a short-term consolidation phase following a growth surge quite successfully, consolidating above its 50-day MA, which is one of the first signs of a reversal in the medium-term trend towards a bullish tone. Today’s top performers include Dash (+17.4%), Zcash (+16.6%) and Theta Network (+11%). The underperformers were VeChain (−1.2%), Hedera (−1%) and OFFICIAL TRUMP (−0.9%).

Bitcoin is cautiously testing new local highs, briefly rising above $73K on Thursday, although it is currently trading just below $72K. These fluctuations around local highs and the cautious renewal of them appear to mark a new phase following a prolonged period of hovering near the bottom and a cautious upward trend since late March. However, the market still needs to pass an important test by breaking out of the 61.8% retracement of the decline seen at the start of the year. It cannot be ruled out that the bears are simply giving the market more room to move below their key levels near $75K.

News Background

Standard Chartered forecasts that Bitcoin could fall to $50K in the near term, then recover to $100K by the end of the year. In the long term, the bank’s target price is $500K by 2030.

According to Lookonchain, Bhutan is preparing to sell $22.7 million worth of Bitcoin. The country’s government has transferred 319.7 BTC to two different wallets. Publicly listed mining company Cango sold 2,000 Bitcoin for $143 million in March to repay debts.

US bank Morgan Stanley has launched its own spot Bitcoin ETF with reduced fees. Demand for digital gold from high-net-worth clients remains high, the bank notes.

According to CryptoQuant, trading volume on centralised crypto exchanges fell by 48% from its October 2025 peak to $4.3 trillion in March, reaching its lowest level in the last five months.

On 9 April, the Catchain 2.0 update was successfully activated on the TON network, increasing throughput tenfold. According to Pavel Durov, the blockchain now creates blocks six times faster, and transactions “take place instantly, in less than a second”.

USD/JPY traded at 159.16 on Friday. The yen is retreating slightly but appears less weak than previously, amid a two-week truce between the US and Iran. The decline in oil prices following the announcement of the truce has partially reduced stagflationary risks and provided some support to the Japanese currency.

Investor focus is on the upcoming talks in Islamabad, where Vice President JD Vance will lead the US delegation. Meetings with the Iranian side are expected to clarify the prospects for further de-escalation.

However, sentiment remains subdued. Continued strikes in the region and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to put the fragile truce at risk, driving ** market uncertainty.

The yen has remained under pressure since the conflict began, losing approximately 2%. Investors are factoring in rising energy prices, which add to inflationary pressures while dampening Japan's growth outlook.

The market is now awaiting signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ahead of the 28 April meeting, which could set the future direction of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 158.85 level, currently extending up to 159.30. A move higher towards 159.85 (testing from below) is expected today. Subsequently, a potential decline towards the 157.72 level will be considered. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing upwards from low levels.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a wave of growth towards the 159.82 level. A wave extension to the 160.00 level is possible. Thereafter, a downward wave to at least 158.85 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has stabilised as the yen shows tentative signs of recovery, benefiting from the temporary truce between the US and Iran and the resulting pullback in oil prices. However, the fragility of the ceasefire – underscored by continued strikes and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – means that energy-driven risks remain very much alive. The yen has lost approximately 2% since the conflict began, and market attention now turns to upcoming diplomatic talks in Islamabad and BOJ Governor Ueda's signals ahead of the 28 April policy meeting. Technically, a short-term bounce in USD/JPY appears likely, but the broader trajectory will depend on whether de-escalation holds or tensions reignite.

AUD/CAD is back on the front foot this week, with its uptrend reasserting itself as markets price in a widening gap between a hawkish RBA and a defensive BoC. The spotlight now shifts squarely to Canada’s employment report today, which carries outsized importance after a string of weak labor data. A soft print could accelerate AUD/CAD's move toward parity, while a strong rebound in jobs may trigger a near-term pullback in the cross without altering the broader bullish trend.

The medium term up trend in AUD/CAD is underpinned by clear monetary policy divergence. With the RBA rate at 4.10% and the BoC at 2.25%, the yield gap is already substantial. But more importantly, markets are increasingly positioning for further divergence rather than convergence. The RBA has already delivered two rate hikes this year to combat domestic demand-driven inflation, even before the latest oil shock.

With higher energy prices feeding into inflation expectations, economists are now anticipating two to three additional hikes, potentially expanding the rate differential with BoC to a massive 260 basis points. This widening spread provides a strong structural foundation for AUD/CAD strength.

Meanwhile, Canada’s economic backdrop has deteriorated noticeably. Over 100,000 jobs were lost in the first two months of the year. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has framed the slowdown as part of a broader structural adjustment tied to weaker deteriorating trade relationship with the U.S.

Notably, the sharp rise in oil prices during March failed to provide sustained support to the Loonie. Instead of reversing the trend, it only led to a temporary consolidation in AUD/CAD. The latest leg higher in AUD/CAD has also been aided by the US-Iran ceasefire, which improved global risk sentiment while easing oil prices. This combination has favored the Aussie and further weighed on the Loonie.

Focus now turns to Canada's March employment data today. After consecutive months of job losses, markets are hoping for a modest rebound. However, the risks around the release remain skewed to the downside.

If the job data misses significantly (e.g., another net loss of jobs), or unemployment rate jumps sharply higher than 6.8%, this would force the BoC to prioritize growth over the inflation "overshoot" caused by oil, potentially putting a June cut back on the table. That would likely hammer Lonnie further, and send AUD/CAD higher.

On the other hand, a strong "beat" in jobs today, would likely end any talk of further BoC easing for the first half of 2026. The market is already starting to price in the possibility of a prolong hold (or even a defensive hike) if oil sustained at triple digits starts leaking into core CPI. That might trigger a dip in AUD/CAD, but still it won't be enough to alter the trend.

Technically, outlook in AUD/CAD will stay bullish as long as 0.9510 support holds, even in case of retreat. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.9055 to 0.9749 from 0.9510 at 0.9939, or even further through parity.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ) reached an all‑time high on October 30, 2025 at 26,399, which we identify as the completion of wave (1). The market then entered a corrective phase in wave (2), unfolding as a double‑three Elliott Wave structure. From the wave (1) peak, wave W declined to 23,904.5. A recovery in wave X followed and reached 26,349. The final leg lower in wave Y ended at 22,961.5, completing wave (2) in a higher degree.

With the correction finished, the Index has turned higher in wave (3). It still needs to break above the wave (1) high at 26,399 to fully rule out a double correction. From the wave (2) low, wave (i) advanced to 24,348.25. A pullback in wave (ii) then found support at 23,666. The Index is now progressing within wave (iii), which is expected to complete soon. A pullback in wave (iv) should follow before another advance in wave (v) to finish wave ((i)).

Once wave ((i)) ends, the Index should correct the cycle from the March 31 low in wave ((ii)). This would set the stage for another bullish phase. In the near term, the pivot at 22,961.5 remains a key level. As long as this level holds, any pullback should attract buyers in a three‑ or seven‑swing sequence, supporting the broader upside outlook.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

NQ Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yz60Fg5LKJo

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East had remained the primary macro driver for the gold market over recent weeks; however, on 8 April the situation shifted sharply as the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a pause in military strikes. The easing of acute tensions triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and a return of risk appetite across global markets, weighing on demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, gold retreated from intraday highs near 4,850.

That said, the durability of the agreement remains uncertain. Reports of localised strikes in the region continue to keep market participants on edge, preventing a full dismissal of Iranian-related risks. Additional influence comes from macroeconomic data—particularly US inflation—whose interpretation in the context of Federal Reserve rate expectations continues to shape dollar dynamics. Structural support from central banks persists, with China continuing to increase its gold reserves, while Malaysia and South Korea have resumed purchases after an extended pause.

Technical Outlook

On the daily chart of XAU/USD, a clear two-phase structure is evident. An uptrend that began in March 2024 drove prices to a record high in the 5,595–5,600 range by late January 2026, followed by a sharp and impulsive decline. Notably, the peak in vertical volume occurred not at the price high, but during the subsequent sell-off in March 2026, indicating a climactic phase of selling rather than buying.

The low of that move was recorded near 4,100, from which price rebounded to current levels around 4,766. The horizontal volume profile reveals a dense cluster in the 4,990–5,050 zone, marking the point of control (POC) where trading activity has been most concentrated. This area acts as a natural resistance to further upside. The next significant level above lies at 5,230.

The ascending trend line originating from autumn 2025 was broken to the downside in March 2026 and no longer serves as support for buyers. It may now act as an additional resistance near the 5,000 level.

The lower boundary of the current range is located around 4,380. The RSI and moving averages stand at 50.54 / 42.10 / 46.93, with the RSI hovering near the neutral 50 level and remaining below both upward-sloping moving averages, signalling a lack of confirmed directional momentum.
Summary

Following the completion of an active corrective phase, gold has stabilised below the POC zone, while the RSI remains near neutral levels without a clear directional bias. The current trading range—4,380 on the downside and 5,230 on the upside—continues to define the market structure, as geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve rhetoric shape short-term price dynamics.

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Commodity-linked currencies continue to strengthen, while the US dollar remains under pressure amid easing geopolitical tensions and a shift in investor preference towards riskier assets. Reports of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran have helped stabilise sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets, supporting currencies sensitive to the global economic cycle, including the Australian and Canadian dollars.

Another factor weighing on the dollar is expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy, which remain highly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data. Lower US Treasury yields and ongoing uncertainty بشأن inflation dynamics are reinforcing cautious market positioning. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to upcoming US data releases, including inflation, consumer sentiment, and business activity indicators, which may reshape interest rate expectations.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD continues its upward move after breaking out of the 0.6840–0.6960 range. The next upside targets are the yearly highs in the 0.7160–0.7180 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the pair falls and holds below 0.7020.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core CPI
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan inflation expectations
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan consumer sentiment

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is trending lower, continuing the move driven by Canadian dollar strength. The downside breakout reflects a shift in favour of commodity currencies, supported by both the broader macro backdrop and expectations ahead of key Canadian data, including the employment report.

Technical analysis suggests a potential decline towards the 1.3750–1.3780 range, as several reversal patterns have formed on the daily timeframe. The bearish outlook would be invalidated if the pair rises and holds above 1.3860.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada unemployment rate
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): average hourly wages (permanent employees)
• Today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions in crude oil

The strength in commodity currencies is being driven by a combination of easing geopolitical risks, a weaker US dollar, and rising demand for risk assets. Breakouts in AUD/USD and USD/CAD reinforce the likelihood of trend continuation; however, upcoming US and Canadian data remain a key source of uncertainty. Depending on the outcome, the current momentum may either extend or shift into a phase of consolidation.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 212.69; (P) 213.27; (R1) 214.22; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 214.98 high. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. On the downside, below 212.31 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But risk will now remain on the upside as long as 209.58 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.08) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.15; (P) 185.71; (R1) 186.54; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. Next near term target is 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98. On the downside, below 184.77 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, consolidations from 186.86 might still extend. But as long as 55 W EMA (now at 176.56) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8699; (P) 0.8708; (R1) 0.8717; More…

EUR/GBP is still extending consolidations below 0.8740 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 short term bottom to 0.8788 resistance next. However, break of 0.8675 will bring retest of 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be resume to resume through 0.8863. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6477; (P) 1.6548; (R1) 1.6590; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside at this point. Corrective rebound from 1.6125 could have completed at 1.6842 after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6733). Deeper fall should be seen to retest 1.6125. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 1.6842 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7207) holds, even in case of strong rebound.