Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7033; (P) 0.7072; (R1) 0.7096; More...

AUD/USD continues to gyrate in familiar range below 0.7146 and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidations would continue and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 0.6896 support. On the upside, above 0.7146 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Asian markets traded mixed despite a softer US session overnight. In particular, regional tech stocks showed resilience, with hardware names outperforming on the view that supply-chain positioning remains intact even if US software valuations reset. South Korea’s Kospi notched a fresh record high for a third straight session, powered by a rally in chipmakers. In Japan, the Nikkei also advanced, led by “picks and shovels” AI beneficiaries—equipment makers and component suppliers—on bets that Asian hardware firms will continue to monetize global AI capex. The regional divergence is clearer when contrasted with India, where software services names underperformed.

In China, equities strengthened as markets reopened for the Year of the Horse. Sentiment was buoyed by belief that the recent US Supreme Court ruling striking down sweeping reciprocal tariffs could ease near-term export pressure. The shift from “reciprocal” levies to a flat 15% surcharge has been read as a relative improvement for China. Although US President Donald Trump subsequently announced a temporary 15% global tariff, analysts argue the reset may translate into lower effective rates for China compared with prior proposals under country-specific frameworks. That relative repricing explains the relief bid in onshore shares.

Hong Kong, however, was a regional outlier, slipping as international investors reassessed implications of the new tariff regime. The selloff may reflect “fade the rally” positioning, with global funds cautious that the 150-day surcharge window represents only a temporary pause before more permanent measures are unveiled.

The reconfiguration from reciprocal tariffs to a flat surcharge has produced accidental winners and losers. China, India, and Brazil—previously facing potentially punitive bilateral rates—now fall under the 15% umbrella. Traditional allies such as the UK, Italy, and Australia, which had lower baseline exposure, now face a higher effective floor.

Still, the framework remains fluid. The 15% rate is legally defined as a temporary surcharge with a hard 150-day sunset. The administration is sure to use this period to prepare a more durable tariff architecture, limiting conviction in the relief trade.

Currency markets reflect a mild risk-off tilt. Sterling leads gains, followed by Dollar and Swiss Franc. Australian Dollar is the weakest, trailed by Kiwi and Loonie, while Yen and Euro sit mid-pack. Yet price action lacks follow-through. Major pairs and crosses remain bounded within last week’s ranges, signaling hesitation rather than decisive repositioning. Traders appear reluctant to commit ahead of Trump’s upcoming State of the Union address today, which could clarify what's next regarding tariffs.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.90%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.16%. China SHanghai SSE is up 0.87%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.57%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.005 at 2.105. Overnight, DOW fell -1.66%. S&P 500 fell -1.04%. NASDAQ fell -1.13%. 10-year yield fell -0.57 to 4.029.

RBA stays focused on quarterly trimmed mean during CPI transition

In a speech today, Michael Plumb, head of economic analysis at the RBA, said the central bank welcomes the introduction of a complete monthly CPI, noting that more frequent and comprehensive data will materially improve the timeliness of its inflation assessment.

However, Plumb cautioned that it will "take us some" time to understand the properties and seasonal patterns of the new monthly series. During the transition, the RBA will continue to "focus on the quarterly data", particularly the quarterly trimmed mean measure, for forecasting and evaluating underlying inflationary pressures.

While maintaining its quarterly focus, the RBA has begun analyzing underlying inflation measures constructed from monthly data. Plumb said policymakers will assess potential biases, seasonal differences, responsiveness to economic conditions, and usefulness as a leading indicator.

The central bank intends to engage widely and communicate transparently before any shift in preferred measures in what he described as a gradual move toward a “post-quarterly CPI world.”

ECB’s Lagarde: Rates in “good place”, Europe can capture AI gains through application

Speaking at a conference in Washington, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that Eurozone monetary policy is in a “good place,” repeating guidance that the current rate setting remains appropriate. The remarks signal that the ECB is not actively considering a policy shift, as inflation stabilizes and growth remains resilient.

Lagarde emphasized that the ECB will continue to assess incoming data and remain "agile", but her tone suggested confidence in the existing stance. The message reinforces expectations of stability in near-term meetings, with policy adjustments contingent on material changes in inflation or financial conditions.

Turning to structural growth, Lagarde argued that Europe can still capitalize on artificial intelligence even if it does not dominate the development of cutting-edge models. She noted that history shows economic value often lies in broad application rather than invention alone, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors.

PBoC extends pause in LPR, USD/CNH downtrend slows

The People's Bank of China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged, keeping the 1-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%. The decision marks the tenth consecutive month of steady policy.

For now, policymakers are seen favoring targeted structural tools—supporting sectors such as technology and green energy—rather than deploying broad-based rate cuts. Holding benchmark rates also helps anchor the Yuan, which has been hovering near a 34-month high, buoyed in part by broad Dollar weakness.

USD/CNH has been trending lower since early 2025, reflecting persistent Dollar softness. However, technically, downside momentum appears to be fading, with bullish convergence emerging on D MACD. That suggests selling pressure may be losing traction in the near term.

Support may emerge near 200% projection of 7.2224 to 7.0840 from 7.1381 at 6.8613 to bring rebound. Firm break above 6.9105 resistance would indicate short-term bottoming and open the way toward the 55 D EMA (now at 6.9629).

Still, renewed broad-based Dollar weakness could quickly push the pair through 6.8613 toward 261.8% projection at 6.7758, and possibly revive medium term downside momentum along the way.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7033; (P) 0.7072; (R1) 0.7096; More...

AUD/USD continues to gyrate in familiar range below 0.7146 and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidations would continue and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 0.6896 support. On the upside, above 0.7146 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

EURCAD Sell Trade Setup

1. Bearish divergence market patterns. (Red lines)
2. Bearish supply zones respected. (Gray & Green boxes)
3. Price reacting lower from the boxes.
4. Entered SELL trade at 1.6148 with Stop Loss at 1.6168 and minimum target 1.5R 1.6118 maximum target 3R 1.6088

EURCAD 15 Minute Chart February 23 2026

A trader should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade off one simple strategy. When multiple strategies all line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup. We at EWF never say we are always right. No market service provider can forecast markets with 100% accuracy. Only thing we at EWF 100%, is that we are RIGHT more than we are WRONG.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on social media for updates and questions> @AidanFX

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Spot Gold (XAUUSD) reached an all-time high of $5598.75 on January 29 before undergoing a sharp correction to $4402.40 on February 2. From that low, the metal began a recovery that can be characterized as a nesting impulse. This structure reflects a sequence of advancing waves, each building upon the prior move to sustain upward momentum.

From the February 2 low, wave ((1)) concluded at $5091.95, while the subsequent decline in wave ((2)) found support at $4655.30, as illustrated on the one-hour chart. Following this, the market advanced into wave ((3)), which itself nested higher. Within wave ((3)), wave (1) terminated at $5119.16, and the corrective pullback in wave (2) ended at $4841.32. The internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave pattern. Specifically, wave W declined to $4877.75, wave X rallied to $5053.11, and wave Y completed at $4841.32. This sequence finalized wave (2) at a higher degree, setting the stage for renewed strength.

Since then, the metal has resumed its upward trajectory. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $4841.32 remains intact, pullbacks are expected to attract buyers. This condition supports the view that gold will continue advancing, with corrective moves offering opportunities for accumulation rather than signaling deeper weakness.

Gold (XAUUSD) 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 2.24.2026

XAUUSD Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhIIOTrZO80

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices started a decent increase above $65.00.
• The bulls could aim for more gains above $68.00 and $68.80.
• Gold started a fresh increase above $5,050 and $5,120.
• EUR/USD found support near 1.1740 and corrected some losses.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil prices started a decent increase above $63.50 against the US Dollar. The price settled above $65.00 to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $65.35. The price settled above $65.00, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $67.20 level. The first key hurdle for the bulls could be $68.00. A close above $68.00 might send Oil prices toward $68.80. Any more gains might call for a test of $70.00 in the near term.

On the downside, the first major support sits near the $65.50 zone. The next support could be $65.00, below which the price could dive and test the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) at $63.95.

A daily close below $63.95 could open the doors for a larger decline. In the stated case, the bears might aim for a drop toward $62.00 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

Looking at Gold, the bulls remained in action, and the price started a fresh increase above the $5,120 resistance.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Housing Price Index for Dec 2025 (MoM) - Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.6% previous.
• Fed's Waller speech.
• Fed's Cook speech.

The People's Bank of China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged, keeping the 1-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%. The decision marks the tenth consecutive month of steady policy.

For now, policymakers are seen favoring targeted structural tools—supporting sectors such as technology and green energy—rather than deploying broad-based rate cuts. Holding benchmark rates also helps anchor the Yuan, which has been hovering near a 34-month high, buoyed in part by broad Dollar weakness.

USD/CNH has been trending lower since early 2025, reflecting persistent Dollar softness. However, technically, downside momentum appears to be fading, with bullish convergence emerging on D MACD. That suggests selling pressure may be losing traction in the near term.

Support may emerge near 200% projection of 7.2224 to 7.0840 from 7.1381 at 6.8613 to bring rebound. Firm break above 6.9105 resistance would indicate short-term bottoming and open the way toward the 55 D EMA (now at 6.9629).

Still, renewed broad-based Dollar weakness could quickly push the pair through 6.8613 toward 261.8% projection at 6.7758, and possibly revive medium term downside momentum along the way.

In a speech today, Michael Plumb, head of economic analysis at the RBA, said the central bank welcomes the introduction of a complete monthly CPI, noting that more frequent and comprehensive data will materially improve the timeliness of its inflation assessment.

However, Plumb cautioned that it will "take us some" time to understand the properties and seasonal patterns of the new monthly series. During the transition, the RBA will continue to "focus on the quarterly data", particularly the quarterly trimmed mean measure, for forecasting and evaluating underlying inflationary pressures.

While maintaining its quarterly focus, the RBA has begun analyzing underlying inflation measures constructed from monthly data. Plumb said policymakers will assess potential biases, seasonal differences, responsiveness to economic conditions, and usefulness as a leading indicator.

The central bank intends to engage widely and communicate transparently before any shift in preferred measures in what he described as a gradual move toward a “post-quarterly CPI world.”

Full speech of RBA's Plumb here.

Speaking at a conference in Washington, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that Eurozone monetary policy is in a “good place,” repeating guidance that the current rate setting remains appropriate. The remarks signal that the ECB is not actively considering a policy shift, as inflation stabilizes and growth remains resilient.

Lagarde emphasized that the ECB will continue to assess incoming data and remain "agile", but her tone suggested confidence in the existing stance. The message reinforces expectations of stability in near-term meetings, with policy adjustments contingent on material changes in inflation or financial conditions.

Turning to structural growth, Lagarde argued that Europe can still capitalize on artificial intelligence even if it does not dominate the development of cutting-edge models. She noted that history shows economic value often lies in broad application rather than invention alone, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors.

• The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs.
• President Trump has already signaled a pivot to using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to propose a new 15% "bridge tax," indicating that the "peak tariff" era may be a temporary ceiling before new volatility returns.
• Why are safe havens rallying in the aftermath of the decision?

On Friday February the US Supreme Court delivered a landmark 6–3 decision in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, striking down the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs.

The ruling had sparked a notable rally in risk assets including equities and international currencies as market participants priced in a shift from "tariff chaos" toward a more regulated, though still complex, trade environment.

However, once the dust settled market participants were left with more questions than answers. This has led to a rally in safe havens such as Gold to start the week while risk assets experienced a selloff.

The questions for everyone is what are driving these moves?

The factors driving prices and volatility

Reduction of "Policy Shocks"

The primary driver of the risk-on rally last Friday was the removal of the President’s ability to impose sudden, unilateral tariff hikes under the guise of national emergencies. Since early 2025, the market has lived under the constant threat of "Twitter-style" trade policy where rates could jump 10% to 25% overnight.

By ruling that IEEPA does not grant the executive branch the "extraordinary power to raise revenue," the Court has effectively dismantled the administration's primary tool for aggressive trade maneuvers. The ruling "reduces trade policy uncertainty at the margin," allowing businesses to plan capital expenditures without the fear of an immediate supply-chain "shock."

The $175 Billion "Refund Rally"

Perhaps the most tangible catalyst for risk assets is the prospect of massive corporate refunds. Since the IEEPA-based tariffs were implemented in February 2025, the U.S. government has collected an estimated $130 billion to $175 billion in duties.

With the Court declaring these collections illegal, a door has opened for importers to claw back these funds. This potential "fiscal injection" is being viewed by some economists as a late-cycle stimulus. For sectors like retail, automotive, and technology, which absorbed much of the initial cost, the promise of significant cash-back on balance sheets has sent stock prices climbing.

Global Relief and Currency Stabilization

Outside the US, the ruling acted as a pressure-release valve for export-heavy economies. Risk assets in Canada, Mexico, and across Asia surged following the news.

• The "Loonie" and the Peso: The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso strengthened as the "fentanyl/border" tariffs were invalidated.
• European Equities: Indices like the FTSE 100 and the DAX hit near-record highs, led by carmakers and luxury goods manufacturers (e.g., Diageo and BMW) that had been heavily penalized by reciprocal duties.

Lower Inflationary Tailwinds

Risk assets thrive in a low-inflation environment because it allows the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates. The invalidation of IEEPA tariffs which accounted for approximately 60% of the total tariff revenue collected over the last year, removes a significant "tax" on consumers.

While the administration has already proposed "Plan B" workarounds using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, these alternative paths are legally more narrow and slower to implement, leading markets to believe the "peak tariff" era has passed.

Looking Ahead: A temporary ceiling?

Just hours after the US Supreme Court blocked the administration’s "Liberation Day" emergency tariffs, President Donald Trump pivoted by announcing a new round of trade restrictions. This time, the administration is invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, a provision designed to address "international payment problems" by allowing surcharges of up to 15% for a 150-day window.

While these tariffs technically expire unless Congress intervenes, the President could theoretically bypass this limit by letting the surcharge lapse and immediately declaring a new emergency to restart the clock, creating a perpetual tariff cycle. Though the White House initially signaled a 10% rate effective February 24, Trump quickly increased the figure to 15% the following day. Because these measures rely on a different legal statute, they are currently exempt from the recent Supreme Court ruling.

Despite this tactical shift, the use of Section 122 invites significant legal vulnerability. The provision is a relic of the gold standard and fixed exchange rate era; because it was finalized just as that global financial system collapsed, it has never actually been utilized in practice.

Proving a "balance of payments crisis" in a modern economy where the balance of payments is technically always in balance, presents a difficult hurdle for government lawyers.

Consequently, these new tariffs may serve primarily as a stalling tactic or "smoke and mirrors" while the administration prepares a more robust case under Section 301 of the same law. While Section 301 targets unfair trade practices and agreement violations, it requires a more rigorous and time-consuming investigation before it can be implemented.

Safe haven demand surges

Safe haven demand began surging late on Friday when President Trump announced he may use other means to enact his tariff policy.

This has left market participants in a state of limbo and thus the demand for safe haven assets has surged.

The Supreme Court’s ruling last Friday served as a powerful reminder of the constraints on executive authority, suggesting that the American system of checks and balances remains functional.

Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to assume President Trump will view this legal setback as an opportunity to quietly retreat from his protectionist agenda. Recent announcements following the court's decision underscore his commitment to trade barriers, signaling that he has no intention of abandoning his favorite economic tool.

As a result, market uncertainty has resurfaced, and with European leaders increasingly showing their own willingness to retaliate, the potential for a full-scale trade escalation is significantly higher today than it was a year ago.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold has continued its surge and breached the $5207 handle.

Gold looks poised to continues its trajectory and make a run for the all-time highs.

This will depend on either a catalyst such as a US-Iran situation.

For now though immediate resistance is at 5250 before the 5300 handle comes into focus.

Looking at pullback and markets may look toward the 5100 handle as a point of support before the 5000/oz psychological level comes into focus.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, February 23, 2026

Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge)

• Silver and Gold dominate commodity flows after the latest tariff turmoil.
• Demarking from their peers in the metals space, the two best performers are breaking out. Will it continue?
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD (Silver) and XAU/USD (Gold).

It has been a wild ride for metals in 2026 and bulls are back to prop up the best performers of the asset class to a renewed breakout.

After a three week correction period, Silver and Gold are now attempting to revisit their all-time records.

Recent US tariff chaos has brought renewed uncertainty in global Markets, may it be around trade or even geopolitics, allowing precious metals to attract some interest.

A little reminder of the situation: we’ve entered a chaotic new chapter in the trade wars. After the Supreme Court officially dismantled the IEEPA Liberation Day tariffs last Friday, President Trump immediately pivoted to his plan B.

Within hours, he invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974—a Nixon-era policy designed to fix balance-of-payments deficits—to slap a 10% (quickly raised to 15%) global surcharge on imports.

This measure is temporary (150 days) leading to immediate uncertainty on future US trade policies, normally expiring on July 23-24.

With $133 billion in illegal duties already collected under the now-defunct IEEPA regime (expiring tomorrow), the government is facing a budgetary nightmare as businesses line up for refunds. This is a huge compromise to the Administration's entire gameplan.

Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView, February 23, 2026.

Gold are actually the dominant performers in the asset class, while Palladium, Platinum, and Copper struggle to gain significant momentum (broadly unchanged on the year).

Both the Yellow and Grey metals are getting propped up from recent tariff developments and Middle East anxiety.

The divergence in today's action shows one thing: the metals run is going to be more bumpy in the coming days.

What was seen as a broad Dollar debasement is now considered a trickier play, with only a few regional products and assets outperforming, while the others remain dormant or even sell off. The same could be said about Equities.

As explored countless times in our previous pieces, we are entering an age in which investors will have to be meticulous about where to place their pawns.

The age of random selection and everything rallying is now well over.

Daily Metal Performance (14:56 ET) – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium

In the meantime, we will dive into an intraday timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to spot where the ongoing breakout is taking us.

Gold to Silver Overview

Gold/Silver Ratio Monthly Chart. February 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Gold/Silver Ratio eased significantly from 100X to the current 60X level, right in the middle of the "Buy Gold at 40X, Sell Gold at 80X adage" zone.

Silver seems to be taking the momentum back in today's action but remains in a rough spot: Positioning, albeit less extreme than a month ago, could lead to less potential upside.

Asset Managers are still deemed to be heavily invested in precious metals, so keep a close eye on upcoming times.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, February 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold is back to a very bullish price action, evolving in a Tight bull channel ever since reaching $4,844 in Mid-February.

Despite the ongoing consequential rally, late buyers will have to be careful as prices reach the channel's upper bound and overbought RSI levels.

A pullback to $5,100 would provide the most interesting entries (given that sellers don't push Gold below). This level acts as a key magnet and Pivot level for price action bull/bear dominance.

If bulls manage to push the metal above $5,300 without a pullback however, a run to the $5,600 should soon follow.

Keep a very close eye on the 4H 200 MA, which acted as major support throughout the entire trend.

Technical Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $5,230 Channel Top (intraday highs)
• $5,300 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance
• Current All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600
• Key Fibonacci Projection $5,800 to $5,900

Support Levels:

• $5,100 Major Pivot (bullish above)
• Mid-Feb lows $4,844
• Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500 – Bearish below
• Main Support $3,880 to $4,050
• $3,200 to $3,500 Major Support

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and levels

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, February 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Silver is also back to a very impressive bullish momentum, getting close to reaching $90 after breaching its 4H 200-Period MA.

Traders will have to be careful of the $90 to $95 higher timeframe resistance which acted as such in the early February rebound, particularly as overbought RSI conditions are arising.

Rejecting that area could take the action back to $84 which acts as a major pivot and could provide interesting dip-buying levels, similarly as what is seen in Gold.

• Any close above the February highs ($92.20), should lead to a retest of $100.

Technical Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Feb 4 highs $92.20
• Higher Timeframe Resistance $90 to $95
• Key psychological resistance $100 to $104
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• 2025 Record Pivot $82 to $84
• Key Momentum Support $76 to $77.50
• Major 2026 Support $70 to $72
• February lows $64
• $53.50 to $54 October Resistance now Major Support

Safe Trades!