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Crude oil prices fell as US inventory surprisingly increased last week. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks gained +3.3 mmb to 1206.9 mmb in the week ended June 29. Crude oil inventory added +1.25 mmb (consensus: -3.54 mmb) to 417.88 mmb, although inventories decreased in 4 out of 5 PADDs. Meanwhile, PADD III saw inventory gain of +2.95 mmb. Cushing stock slipped -2.11 mmb to 27.78 mmb. Utilization rate slipped -0.4% to 97.1%. Meanwhile, crude production steadied at 10.9M bpd for the week.

Concerning refined oil product inventories. Gasoline inventory declined -1.51 mmb to 239.69 mmb although demand gained +1.42% to 9.87M bpd. The market had anticipated a -0.82 mmb decrease in stockpile. Production added +1.67% to 10.31M bpd while imports plunged -34.41% to 0.65M bpd during the week.

Distillate inventory increased +0.13 mmb to 117.56 mmb. The market had anticipated a -0.55 mmb drop. This came as a result of a +14.23% rose in demand to 4.13M bpd.  Production added +1.24% to 5.46M bpd while imports soared +70.37% to 0.09M bpd during the week.

Released after market close on Wednesday, the industry- sponsored API estimated that crude oil inventory fell -4.5 mmb during the week. For refined oil products, gasoline stockpile dropped -3.1  mmb while distillate was down -0.4 mmb.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.27% against the USD and closed at 1.1691, following robust German factory orders data. Data showed that Germany's annual factory orders advanced more-than-expected by 4.4% in May, driven by strong domestic demand and compared to a revised rise of 0.8% in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged orders to grow 1.7%.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its 2018 forecast for German GDP growth to 2.2%, saying rising protectionism.

The US dollar declined against a basket of currencies yesterday, following disappointing economic data.

Data showed that the US private sector employment increased by 177.0K in June, lower than market anticipation for an advance of 190.0K. The private sector employment had recorded a revised increase of 189.0K in the prior month. The number of Americans filling for fresh jobless claims unexpectedly advanced to a level of 231.0K in the week ended 30 June, notching a 6-week high level and compared to a revised level of 228.0K in the prior week. Market participants had anticipated initial jobless claims to drop to a level of 225.0K. Moreover, the final Markit services PMI slid to a level of 56.5 in June, meeting market expectations and confirming the preliminary print. In the prior month, the PMI had recorded a level of 56.8.

As per the minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June meeting, policymakers stated that gradual fund rate hikes will support expansion of the economy and maintained its outlook for three rate hikes in 2019. Meanwhile, the policymakers highlighted concerns over growing trade policy risks.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1687, with the EUR trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1651, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1616. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1721, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1756.

Looking forward, investors would keep an eye on Germany's industrial production for May, slated to release in a while. Later in the day, the US trade balance data for May, followed by non-farm payrolls data, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, all for June, will garner significant amount of investor attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.05% against the USD and closed at 1.3223.

The Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney expressed optimism over the nation’s growth and added that the economic slowdown was temporary. Further, he boosted hopes for a rate hike in the next month, justifying that softness of UK activity in the first quarter was largely due to bad weather conditions and not the economic climate.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3213, with the GBP trading 0.08% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3186, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3160. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3257, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3302.

Moving ahead, investors will closely monitor UK’s Halifax house price for June, set to be released in a while.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.16% against the JPY and closed at 110.66.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 110.68, with the USD trading marginally higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data showed that in Japan, household spending dropped of 3.9% on an annual basis in May, more than market expectations for a drop of 1.5%. Household spending had declined 1.3% in the previous month. On the contrary, labour cash earnings rose 2.1% on a yearly basis in May, higher than market expectations for an advance of 0.9%. Labour cash earnings had risen 0.8% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.40, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.11. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.86, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.03.

Going forward, traders would keep an eye on Japan’s flash leading index and coincident index, both for May, due to be released in a while.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.08% against the CHF and closed at 0.9933.

On the data front, Switzerland's consumer price index (CPI) climbed 1.1% on an annual basis in June, in line with market expectations and compared to an advance of 1.0% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9940, with the USD trading 0.07% higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9919, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9897. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9953, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9965.

Amid no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.05% against the CAD and closed at 1.3134.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3148, with the USD trading 0.11% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3123, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3097. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3167, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3185.

Trading trend in the loonie will be determined by Canada’s unemployment rate and Ivey purchasing managers index, both for June, scheduled to release later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.05% against the USD and closed at 0.7388.

LME Copper prices declined 0.9% or $59.5/MT to $6399.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.3% or $6.5/MT to $2127.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7380, with the AUD trading 0.11% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Australia's AIG performance of construction index declined to a level of 50.6 in June, compared to a reading of 54.0 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7359, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7337. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7405, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7429.

Moving forward, investors would await Australia's NAB business confidence index, as well as the Westpac consumer confidence index and consumer inflation expectations, set to release next week.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.04% against the USD and closed at USD1258.50 per ounce, amid weakness in the US Dollar.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1255.00, with gold trading 0.28% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1251.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1247.27. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1259.93, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1264.87.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.28% against the USD and closed at USD16.09 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.01, with silver trading 0.53% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.94, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.11, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.21.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 1.40% against the USD and closed at USD73.10 per barrel, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated that US crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly rose 1.2 million barrels to 417.9 million barrels in the week ended 29 June.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 72.78, with oil trading 0.44% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 71.94, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 71.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 74.21, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 75.64.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.