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EUR/USD has ticked higher in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1567, up 0.10% on the day. On the release front, GfK Consumer Climate remained pegged at 10.7, edging above the estimate of 10.6 points. EU leaders are meeting in Brussels for a 2-day summit. Later in the day, Germany releases Preliminary CPI, with an estimate of 0.2%. In the U.S, Final GDP is forecast at 2.2%, identical to the reading of Preliminary GDP in May. As well, unemployment claims is expected to edge up to 220 thousand. On Friday, Germany releases retail sales and the eurozone publishes CPI reports. The U.S will publish consumer spending and inflation data, as well as consumer confidence.

European Union leaders are meeting in Brussels, with some dark clouds on the horizon. High on the agenda is the escalating trade war, which has been marked by the U.S and China imposing tariffs on each other’s goods. The EU and the U.S have also been involved in a tariff spat, with the EU firing the latest salvo when it slapped tariffs of 25% on $3.3 billion of U.S products. This move was in response to U.S tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports. With President Trump not showing any intent to blink first, all eyes will be on the summit, as the markets wait for a response (olive branch?) from EU leaders.

Another key issue will be Brexit, as the sides remain far apart on a number of issues, with Britain scheduled to leave the club in March 2019. The EU had said that it wanted issues such as the Irish border to be resolved by the June summit, but this won’t happen, and the EU will now have to set another deadline, with time running out. There have been various suggestions for a type of customs union arrangement between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but the May government is split on the issue. European leaders are exasperated with the lack of progress in the Brexit talks and could issue a tough statement that the EU could split from Britain without an agreement in place.

The U.S economy continues to perform well, buoyed by steady expansion and a labor market that is close to capacity. However, the trade war between the U.S and its major partners could upset this rosy picture. The Federal Reserve now plans to raise rates four times in 2018 (up from three), but a global trade war could force the Fed to revise its forecast back to three hikes. On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed bank president Raphael Bostic said that if the trade war intensified, he would vote against a fourth rate hike, due to downside risks to the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded pessimistic about the economic effects of trade tensions at an ECB forum earlier in June, and if other Fed members express concerns, the Fed could delay a fourth hike until 2019.

Eurozone economic sentiment index (ESI) dropped a mere -0.2 to 112.3 in June, slightly above expectation of 112.1. Among the Eurozone countries, ESI rose 1.2 in Italy and 1.0 in France. however, there was a notable -1.8 decline in the Netherlands and -0.8 in Germany.

Eurozone industrial confidence was unchanged at 6.9, above expectation of 6.5. Services confidence was unchanged at 14.4, below expectation of 14.3. Consumer confidence was finalized at -0.5. The business climate indicator dropped -0.05 to 1.39, above expectation of 1.2.

EU economic sentiment index dropped -0.6 to 112.2. That's mainly due to slight deterioration in the UK by -0.5.

The European single currency strengthened against the Greenback, following the CB Consumer Confidence data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained three pips, or 0.02%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1661 area.

The Conference Board Inc. released Consumer Confidence survey data that came out lower-than-expected with a forecast of 127.6 in June, and also lower from the previous period.

Chris Rupkey, a chief economist at MUFG, New York, said: "Those storm clouds on the horizon from the trade wars may be starting to affect consumer confidence negatively and that bodes poorly for the economic outlook later on this year."

The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US Core Durable Goods data release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost six pips, or 0.05%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1610 area.

The Census Bureau released Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation data that came out lower-than-expected with a forecast of 0.5% in May, and also lower from the previous period.

According to Janis Macukans, a senior analyst at Dukascopy Bank SA, such effect can be explained by the opposing Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders divergences from the market forecasts. The data sets cancelled out each other's effect on the currency markets.

After hitting the weekly pivot point at the 1.7779 mark on June 22, the Pound Sterling changed its market sentiment against the Canadian Dollar and began to make a corrective move south.

During this short period of decline, the currency pair breached some major significant support level. Namely, a support cluster formed by the weekly and monthly PPs and the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.

Given that the GBP/CAD currency exchange rate has moved closer to the bottom border of an ascending pattern, a breakout could be expected today for a potential target at 1.7371 which is the 200-hour simple moving average.

Following a reversal from the lower boundary of a dominant ascending pattern on June 6, the British Pound began a new wave in a channel up against the Australian Dollar.

The ascending movement could be considered to be a retracement. Also, the 55– hour simple moving average has been guiding the exchange rate to the higher. However, this gained has been temporarily stopped by the weekly pivot point located near the 1.7964 mark.

Given that the three SMAs have crossed over below the price, this could signals a continues upward movement during the following trading sessions.

Downside risks pushed EUR/USD lower on Wednesday even despite technical indicators being generally bullish.

Disappointing US Core Durable Goods added some bearish strength to this momentum, thus allowing the pair to dash through the combined support of the 200-hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs and the weekly PP circa 1.1615. Support was eventually found near 1.1553 where the weekly S1 is located.

It seems that this decline might still continue during the first part of the day, at least. An important support level is the one-year low at 1.1510. The given level has been tested unsuccessfully on several occasions throughout this time. Thus, it is expected to remain intact once again.

In terms of upside potential, the rate should not exceed 1.1650 where the 55– and 100-hour SMAs are situated.

As already expected, the GBP/USD exchange rate was unable to breach the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.3232 on Wednesday. This resulted in a strong bearish momentum which has pushed the rate as low as the psychological 1.31 mark by early Thursday. This level is located near the monthly S1 and a two-month channel near 1.3070.

This half-day surge has pushed technical indicators on both the 1H and 4H time-frames into the oversold territory. It is likely to trigger bulls to re-open their positions which would in turn result in appreciation. There is no resistance limiting the Pound until the aforementioned 1.3232 level. Further surge is unlikely.

In case of strong US Final GDP data at 1230GMT, a subsequent fall should not exceed the eight-month low and the weekly S2 at 1.3020.

Following a reversal from the senior channel on Monday, the US Dollar has since continued to appreciate against its Japanese counterpart for the fourth consecutive session. Thus, the pair is gradually approaching a medium-term trend-line and the weekly R1 at 110.60.

The strong hourly surge on Wednesday morning was strong enough to breach the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) and the 200-hour SMAs near 110.10. This now-support level was re-tested unsuccessfully once again later in the day.

Given the strength of this cluster, it is likely that the Greenback is pressured to the upside today. The ultimate daily high today should be the monthly R1 at 110.80.

The yellow metal has failed to pick up momentum against the US Dollar even despite having edged lower for the second consecutive week.

The pair tried to appreciate during the first part of the day, but sluggish US Core Durable Goods Orders added some additional downside pressure for the following hours. This has resulted in the pair falling down to the two-month channel near 1,250.00 early on Thursday.

It is apparent that Gold remained stable during the previous session which suggests that a significant decline should not occur. The nearest support is the junior channel near 1,247.00.

Meanwhile, the still-weakened Gold is unlikely to overcome the resistance cluster formed by the 55-period (4H) and 200-hour SMAs at 1,270.00.