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Market movers today

The Norges Bank meeting will take centre stage in the Scandies today. We expect Norges Bank t o broadly ‘pre-commit ' to a Sept ember hike, see more on page 2.

The Bank of England is also meeting but it's a ‘small meeting and there will be no press conference or updated projections. Instead, keep an eye on the minutes, which will give info on the likelihood of an August hike. We believe the chances of an August hike are shrinking as data has disappointed a bit and uncertainty gone up recently due to trade war tensions.

In the afternoon, focus will turn to the US again with the releases of the Philadelphia Fed survey and initial jobless claims. After the comments yesterday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the Fed is for the first time starting to hear about ‘decisions to postpone investment , postpone hiring...', a lot of focus will be on survey data in the coming months to gauge if the trade war uncertainty is starting to impact the economy.

Finally, we have US house price data and euro consumer confidence and the ECB's Jens Weidmann is due to speak in Paris.

Selected market news

It has been a very uneventful morning in the financial markets with few headlines overnight. The trade tensions between China and t he US are taking a ‘backseat ' and movements in Asian equity markets have swung between modest gains and losses this morning. US bonds yields rose yesterday as there is less focus on the trade tension and 10Y US government bonds yields are yet again approaching the 3% level.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve once again reiterated that policy rates are going higher but at a very gradual pace, at the ECB conference in Sintra yesterday.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.11% against the USD and closed at 1.1576.

Data showed that Germany's producer price index (PPI) advanced more-than-anticipated by 2.7% on a yearly basis in May, reaching its highest level in seven months and compared to a rise of 2.0% in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated the PPI to climb 2.5%.

In other economic news, existing home sales in the US unexpectedly dropped 0.4% on monthly basis, to a level of 5.43 million in May, defying market expectations for a rise to a level of 5.52 million. In the previous month, existing home sales had registered a reading of 5.45 million.

Meanwhile, the nation's MBA mortgage applications rebounded 5.1% in the week ended 15 June, after recording a drop of 1.5% in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1566, with the EUR trading 0.09% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1535, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1505. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1598, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1631.

Looking ahead, traders would keep a close watch on the Euro-zone's consumer confidence index for June, slated to release later in the day. Moreover, the US initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for June, would pique significant amount of investor attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP traded flat against the USD and closed at 1.3172.

In the economic news, UK's CBI industrial trends total orders jumped to a level of 13.0 in June, exceeding market expectation for an advance to a level of 1.0. In the prior month, the balance of firms reporting total order book above normal had registered a reading of -3.0.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3164, with the GBP trading 0.06% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3136, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3108. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3204, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3244.

Going ahead, investors would await the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision for June, scheduled to release in a few hours. Also, UK's public sector net borrowing data for May, would attract significant amount of investor attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.31% against the JPY and closed at 110.38.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 110.59, with the USD trading 0.19% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Separately, Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, proposed a Japanese government call for employers to raise wages by 3% a year, as it would help in achieving the bank’s inflation target.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.15, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.70. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.84, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.08.

Moving forward, traders would closely monitor Japan’s national consumer price index for May and Nikkei flash PMI manufacturing for June, set to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.19% against the CHF and closed at 0.9961.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9977, with the USD trading 0.16% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9948, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9920. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9994, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0012.

Ahead in the day, market participants would keep a close watch on the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) interest rate decision, due in a few hours. Moreover, Switzerland’s trade balance figures for May, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.21% against the CAD and closed at 1.3310.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3308, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3278, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3247. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3330, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3351.

In absence of key economic releases in Canada today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.16% against the USD and closed at 0.7371.

LME Copper prices remained flat at $2179.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 8.58% or $539.0/MT to $6819.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7372, with the AUD trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7348, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7325. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7402, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7433.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.54% against the USD and closed at USD1270.40 per ounce, amid broad strength in the greenback and global equities.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1269.00, with gold trading 0.11% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1265.40, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1261.80. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1275.60, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1282.20.

The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.06% against the USD and closed at USD16.31 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.27, with silver trading 0.21% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 16.22, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.18. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.34, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.42.

The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.55% against the USD and closed at USD65.47 per barrel, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US crude oil stockpiles dropped by 5.9 million barrels to 426.5 million barrels in the week ended 15 June, marking its biggest decline since January 2018.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 65.73, with oil trading 0.40% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 64.90, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 64.06. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 66.46, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 67.18.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.