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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.06; (P) 128.38; (R1) 128.98; More....

Focus is now on 128.94 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will argue that fall from 137.49 has completed 124.61, ahead of 124.08 key support level. The three wave structure will indicate it's a correction and the larger rally is not completed. In that case, further rise should be seen to 133.47 resistance next. On the downside, below 127.17 minor support will indicate rejection from 128.94 and bring retest of 124.61 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress and another high above 137.49 would be seen. Nonetheless, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, decisive break of 124.08 will confirm medium term reversal and target 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.38; (P) 146.75; (R1) 147.45; More...

GBP/JPY's rebound from 143.18 extended higher and break of 147.04 support turned resistance suggests that fall from 153.84 has completed at 143.18 already. Intraday bias is on the upside for 149.99 resistance first. Break will target 153.84 key near term resistance next. On the downside, break of 145.82 minor support will argue that the rebound is completed and bring retest of 143.18 low.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8716; (P) 0.8754; (R1) 0.8785; More...

Outlook in EUR/GBP is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 0.8808 will target 0.8844 first. Firm break there will finally confirm our bullish view and resume the rebound from 0.8620 to 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). On the downside, however, break of 0.8679 minor support should indicate completion of the rebound form 0.8620. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this support.

In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we'd be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5300; (P) 1.5349; (R1) 1.5434; More....

EUR/AUD is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But deeper decline is still expected with 1.5529 resistance intact. Current fall should target 1.5153 key support level. On the upside, break of 1.5529 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we'll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1510; (P) 1.1538; (R1) 1.1570; More....

EUR/CHF's corrective pattern from 1.1366 is extending and further rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1610 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.1462 minor support will bring retest of 1.1366 first. Break will resume decline from 1.2004 and target t next key support zone between 1.1154 and 1.1198.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Deeper fall would be seen to key cluster level at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. We'd expect strong support around there to contain downside and bring rebound.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1668; (P) 1.1701 (R1) 1.1749; More.....

EUR/USD's corrective rebound from 1.1509 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.1617 minor support will bring retest of 1.1509 low first. Break will resume the decline from 1.2555 and target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3328; (P) 1.3369; (R1) 1.3436; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook as the corrective rebound from 1.3203 is in progress. Further rise could be seen but upside should be limited by 1.3617 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3293 minor support will likely resume the fall from 1.47376 through 1.3203 for 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 first, and 61.8% retracement at 1.2875 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We'll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3648) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9821; (P) 0.9857; (R1) 0.9884; More...

USD/CHF continues to stay in right range above 0.9825 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9825 will indicate that fall from 1.0056 is correcting whole rise from 0.9186. In that case, deeper decline would be seen to 0.9724 fibonacci level before completion. On the upside, above 0.9982 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back is finished and bring retest of 1.0056.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.50; (P) 109.77; (R1) 110.07; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside with 109.36 minor support intact and further rise is expected. Rebound from 108.10 should target a test on 111.39 resistance next. Break will resume the rebound from 104.62 and target a test on 114.73 key resistance level. However, on the downside, below 109.36 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, at this point , we're slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2893; (P) 1.2982; (R1) 1.3055; More.....

Despite edging higher to 1.3066, USD/CAD failed to sustain gain and retreated back into established range. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.2817 support holds. Above 1.3066 will extend the rise from 1.2526 to 1.3124 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication. However, break of 1.2817 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.2728 support and below.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. But there is no follow through upside momentum so far. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.