Sample Category Title

USD/CHF dropped to 0.9825 last week. But it failed to sustain below near term trend line support and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.9825 will indicate that fall from 1.0056 is corrective whole rise from 0.9186. In that case, deeper decline would be seen to 0.9724 fibonacci level before completion. On the upside, above 0.9982 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back is finished and bring retest of 1.0056.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we'll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.7411 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.7604 will bring stronger recovery. But we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7475 will bring retest of 0.7411 low first. Break will resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we're favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we'd anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3046 last week but quickly dipped back to established range. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. For now, as long as 1.2728 support holds, we'll stay slightly bullish in the pair and expect further rally. Above 1.3046 will resume the rise from 1.2526 and target 1.3124 high next. Nonetheless, break of 1.2728 will indicate completion of the rebound from 1.252. And in that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2526 and below.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. But there is no follow through upside momentum so far. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we'll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that's completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

GBP/JPY dropped to as low as 143.18 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidation. In case of further rebound, upside should be limited by 147.04 support turned resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, below 144.52 minor support will bring retest of 143.18 first. Break will resume the decline from 153.84.

In the bigger picture, for now, we're treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.26 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

EUR/JPY dropped to as low as 124.61 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more consolidation. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 128.94 support turned resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, , below 126.29 minor support will bring retest of 124.61 first. Break will resume whole fall from 137.49 and target next medium term fibonacci level at 119.90.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term trend reversal continues to build up. That is rise from 109.03 (2016 low) could have completed at 137.49 already. This is supported by bearish divergence in daily MACD and firm break of the medium term channel support. Focus is now on 124.08 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. This will be the preferred case as long as 128.94 support turned resistance holds.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

Outlook in EUR/GBP remains rather mixed. The price actions from 0.8844 are corrective in nature and supports a bullish view. But rally attempts have failed so far. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.8808 will target 0.8844 first. Firm break there will finally confirm our bullish view and resume the rebound from 0.8620 to 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). On the downside, however, break of 0.8679 minor support should indicate completion of the rebound form 0.8620. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this support.

In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we'd be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

In the long term picture, we're holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.

EUR/AUD dipped to 1.5314 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first and some more consolidation could be seen. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6139 to 1.5314 at 1.5269 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.5314 will resume the decline from 1.6189 and target 1.5153 key support level next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we'll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/CHF dropped sharply to as low as 1.1366 last week but recovered since then. Some consolidations would be seen in near term and another rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1610 to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 1.1366 will resume the fall from 1.2004 and target next key support zone between 1.1154 and 1.1198.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Deeper fall would be seen to key cluster level at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. We'd expect strong support around there to contain downside and bring rebound.

It was a roller coaster week with political turmoil in Italy dominated the first half of the week. The formation of the populist Italian government after acceptance by President Sergio Mattarella marked the end of the episode. Trade war then took over as US President Donald Trump decided to let the temporary exemptions of Canada, Mexico and the European Union on steel and aluminium tariffs expire. That drew strong worded responses and retaliation from these supposed US allies. But investors seems to be rather unbothered by their spat as US and European stocks ended Friday higher.

In the currency markets, Japanese turned from being the strongest one to end as the weakest one as Italian political crisis faded temporarily. Dollar was the second weakest even though the US delivered a non-farm payroll report that beat expectations on all front. Market pricing on the Fed's rate path is back to normal after much volatility. Euro was the third weakest one, which is more understandable as the clash between Italian leaders and EU is inevitable. New Zealand Dollar ended as the strongest as recent corrective rebound extends. Sterling turned from being the weakest to end as the second strongest as lifted by PMI manufacturing. Australian Dollar was the third strongest, shrugging off all the events.

The lack of follow through buying in Dollar after non-farm payroll report was a bit puzzling. The job market grew 223k in May, above expectation of 190k. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, beat expectation of 3.9%. That's also the lowest level in 18 years. More importantly, wage growth was solid. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, beat expectation of 0.2% mom.

Market pricing on the Fed's rate path is back to normal. Fed fund futures are pricing in 91.3% chance of June hike to 1.75-2.00%. More importantly, for September meeting, Fed fund futures are pricing in 66% chance another another hike to 2.00-2.25%. That's still lower than last month's pricing of 75% chance. But it's also sharp improvement from 40% chance as priced in on Wednesday.

10 year yield could also have stabilized after climax decline to 2.759. There was strong support seen around 2.7 handle, which is close to 2.717 support as well as 38.2% retracement of 2.033 to 3.115 at 2.701. The development could have now set the range for consolidation, between 2.7 and 3.1. More upside is mildly in favor in TNX in near term.

So why was there no decisive strength in Dollar? An explanation is that Dollar is well past the buying climax on surge in yield, monetary policy divergence, and geopolitical risks. For Eurozone, the Italian risk is now temporarily off. Change in Spanish prime minister was well received by the markets. And more importantly, economic data were positive. German CPI surged to 2.2% yoy in May. French CPI was even strong as it jumped to 2.3% yoy in May. Both were above ECB's target. Overall Eurozone CPI also rose to 1.9% yoy, up from 1.2% in April and beat expectation of 1.6% yoy. It's actually quiet close to, and slightly below ECB's 2% target. The rebound in CPI should have cleared much worries of ECB policymakers. And that should put ECB back on track for ending the asset purchase program this year, even after September.

Similarly, economic data from UK is no longer overwhelmingly bad any more. UK PMI manufacturing rose to 54.4 in May, beat expectation of 53.5. That's a sign of stabilization in the slowdown. More UK data will be coming in this week, including construction and services PMIs. These data could reveal the strength of rebound in Q2. For now, a August BoE hike still seems distant. But a November hike is not out of question. The worst in BoE expectation should be past.

While Yen dropped broadly last week, it should be noted that the yield drive rally might not be over. Sharp fall in German bund yield and UK Gilt yield might be over in the near term. But they're technically both in down trend. US 10 year yield could have established a range for consolidation as noted before. But there is not much prospect of quick up trend resumption. 3.0-3.2 represent an important resistance zone that's close to multi decade trend line. It's not that easy to get through it without fresh stimulus. Resistance in Yen might be a factor that drag on Dollar's rally ahead.

BoC statement last week was also more hawkish than expected. In the accompanying statement, BoC suggested that "developments since April further reinforce Governing Council's view that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target". With the reference, "over time", dropped, the market expects a rate hike would come soon. That may keep the Loonie supported despite being hit hard by Trump's steel tax imposition and there is never-ending uncertainty with NAFTA negotiation. If Canadian Dollar falls again, it will likely be because of selloff in oil prices.

Considering the above factors, it would likely take some time before the greenback get fresh stimulus for resuming the up trend that started back in February. That could be the time when markets are convinced that Fed will hike for the fourth time this year in December. Indeed, the dollar index has clearly lost momentum, as seen in daily MACD, as it approached 95.15 resistance. The stage could be set for some more consolidation below 95.15. Though, we'd expect strong support from 92.24 to contain downside in case of a pull back.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD dropped further lower to 1.1509 last week but formed a short term bottom there and rebound. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect strong resistance from 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.1509 will resume the decline from 1.2555 and target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It's early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

Monday, Jun 4, 2018

[php_everywhere instance="1"]

Tuesday, Jun 5, 2018

[php_everywhere instance="2"]

Wednesday, Jun 6, 2018

[php_everywhere instance="3"]

Thursday, Jun 7, 2018

[php_everywhere instance="4"]

Friday, Jun 8, 2018

[php_everywhere instance="5"]