Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8284; (P) 0.8315; (R1) 0.8339; More...

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8472 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Corrective rebound from 0.8221 should have completed already. Deeper decline would be seen to retest this low. On the upside, above 0.8535 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.8201 key support (2022 low). Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.8442) will pave the way to 0.8624 cluster zone (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621), even just as a correction to the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But still, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8621/4 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6536; (P) 1.6664; (R1) 1.6738; More...

EUR/AUD's consolidation from 1.6800 is extending with another falling leg and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480 to contain downside. On the upside, firm break of 1.6800 will resume the rally from 1.5963. However, sustained break of 1.6480 will bring deeper correction 61.8% retracement at 1.6283 instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support (2024 low) despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9376; (P) 0.9398; (R1) 0.9436; More....

EUR/CHF recovered after dipping to 0.9359 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 0.9516 resistance holds. Corrective rebound from 0.9204 might have completed at 0.9517 already. Firm break of 0.9336 support will solidify this bearish case and target a retest on 0.9204 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 0.9204 has completed as a corrective move after failing to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. Firm break of 0.9204/9 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0252; (P) 1.0301; (R1) 1.0391; More...

EUR/USD recovered ahead of 1.0176 support and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0531 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0176 from 1.0531 at 0.9890.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is back on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0531 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2314; (P) 1.2385; (R1) 1.2520; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Corrective rebound from 1.2099 could extend further with another rise. But strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609 to limit upside. Below 1.2248 will bring retest of 1.2099 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.3433.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9065; (P) 0.9131; (R1) 0.9169; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral as it retreated ahead of 0.9200/9223 resistance zone. Further rally is still expected as long as 0.8694 support holds. Firm break of 0.9200/9223 will carry larger bullish implication. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 0.8735 to 0.9200 from 0.8964 at 0.9429.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.91; (P) 154.90; (R1) 155.79; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY above 153.70 and intraday bas remains neutral. Deeper fall is mildly in favor as long as 156.74 resistance holds. Break of 153.70 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49. Nevertheless, break of 156.74 resistance will indicate that fall from 158.86 has completed as a correction. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 158.86 and above to resume the whole rally from 138.57.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4284; (P) 1.4539; (R1) 1.4687; More...

A short term top should be in place at 1.4791 with the deep retreat from there. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 1.4260 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.4267), which is also close to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4267), to bring rebound. Larger up trend is expected to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs) confirms long term uptrend resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6130; (P) 0.6184; (R1) 0.6279; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as it recovered notably after dipping to 0.6087. Some consolidations would be seen first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6329 resistance holds. Break of 0.6087 will resume larger decline from 0.6941. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6687 to 0.6130 from 0.6329 at 0.5985.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6511) holds.

Global markets found some stability after the US agreed to a 30-day delay on tariffs against Mexico and Canada following agreements on fentanyl trafficking and border security measures. However, trade tensions remain elevated as Washington proceeded with the additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. In response, China retaliated by imposing a 15% tariff on US coal and LNG, along with a 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and select automobiles, set to take effect on February 10.

Further escalation could be on the horizon, as US President Donald Trump signaled that additional tariff hikes on China remain a possibility unless Beijing takes further steps to curb fentanyl exports. Meanwhile, trade friction with the EU is also building. Trump hinted over the weekend that European imports could be his next target, prompting EU leaders at a summit in Brussels to prepare countermeasures while expressing willingness for negotiations. Developments on both fronts will be closely monitored in the days ahead.

In the currency markets, Canadian Dollar is leading gains for the week so far, rebounding strongly following the tariff delay. Japanese Yen follows as the second-strongest performer, benefiting from risk aversion, while British Pound holds up well. On the weaker side, New Zealand Dollar is underperforming, followed by Euro and Australian Dollar. Dollar has retraced most of its earlier gains and is now trading in the middle of the performance rankings alongside Swiss Franc.

Technically, Gold hit another record high on risk aversion yesterday after initial volatility. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 2730.34 support holds. Next target is 38.2% projection of 1810.26 to 2789.92 from 2584.24 at 3074.07, which is close to 3000 psychological. This level will be crucial in determining the underlying momentum of Gold.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.82%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.76%. China is still on holiday. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0228 at 1.272. Overnight, DOW fell -0.28%. S&P 500 fell -0.76%. NASDAQ fell -1.20%. 10-year yield fell -0.026 to 4.543.

CAD rebounds as US pauses tariffs for 30 days

Canadian Dollar rebounded sharply after US President Donald Trump announced a 30-day pause on planned tariffs against Canadian imports, just hours after implementing a similar delay for Mexico.

The decision came after negotiations between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who confirmed that Canada would take aggressive new measures to combat fentanyl trafficking, including deploying nearly 10,000 personnel to reinforce border security. Canada also committed to appointing a "Fentanyl Czar", classifying cartels as terrorist organizations, and launching a Canada-US "Joint Strike Force" targeting organized crime and money laundering.

Markets welcomed the de-escalation, as the tariff pause removes immediate downside risks for the Canadian economy. Trump emphasized that the suspension is conditional on further progress in security measures and that an "Economic deal with Canada" may still need to be structured.

Technically, a short term top is likely formed at 1.4791 in USD/CAD after this week's strong volatility. More sideway trading should now be seen in the near term. However, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 1.4260 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.4267), which is also close to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4267). USD/CAD's up trend is still in favor to resume at a later stage when the consolidation completes.

Fed officials stress patience on rate cuts amid tariff uncertainty

A trio of Fed officials cautioned that new broad-based tariffs could add upward pressure to consumer and producer prices, suggesting a slower pace of rate cuts than previously anticipated.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins highlighted yesterday that tariffs on both final and intermediate goods risk inflating costs throughout supply chains, requiring "patient" policy decisions.

"It's really appropriate for policy to be patient, careful, and there's no urgency for making additional adjustments, especially given all of the uncertainty, even though, of course, we're still somewhat restrictive," Collins said.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also stressed "a ton of uncertainty," warning that a premature return to lower rates could reignite inflation.

"We've got to be a little more careful and more prudent of how fast rates could come down because there are risks that inflation is about to start kicking back up again," Goolsbee said.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that any tariff-related surge in prices or inflation expectations might warrant close monitoring before further easing steps are taken.

BoJ's Ueda prioritizes underlying inflation trends, not short-term volatility

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the central bank’s commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis, emphasizing that the focus remains on underlying inflation rather than temporary price fluctuations.

Speaking before parliament, Ueda highlighted that BoJ filters out one-off factors such as fuel and volatile fresh food prices when assessing inflation trends.

However, he acknowledged "that process at times could be difficult", reinforcing the need for careful analysis before making policy adjustments.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6130; (P) 0.6184; (R1) 0.6279; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as it recovered notably after dipping to 0.6087. Some consolidations would be seen first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6329 resistance holds. Break of 0.6087 will resume larger decline from 0.6941. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6687 to 0.6130 from 0.6329 at 0.5985.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6511) holds.