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USDJPY Analysis: Breaks Out Of Strong Resistance
The US Dollar maintained its movement sideways against the Yen for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The pair failed to surpass the 110.40 mark mainly due to an important resistance level which has previously provided a strong barrier for the Greenback.
On Thursday morning, the pair was supported by the 55-hour SMA. It is likely that this moving average pressures the rate higher towards the weekly R2 at 110.66. A breakout did occur at the time of this analysis, but it is still yet to be seen if this bullish momentum is maintained. A successful breakout should mean a test of the 111.00 mark or the weekly R3 at 111.30.
If looking at important support levels, the pair is likely to be hindered near 109.70, as the 100– and 200–hour SMAs are located nearby.
XAUUSD Analysis: With No Changes
Following the massive decline mid-Tuesday, Gold entered a period of consolidation which was still apparent on the market this morning. Even tough technical indicators are already moving north, the price has failed to follow this upward trend. Nevertheless, no further fall has likewise occurred.
It is expected that the pair tries to breach the 55-hour SMA and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (the breached senior channel line is also located there) at 1,300.00. The following resistance is the 100– and 200-hour moving averages.
Overall, the 1,300.00 area could limit significant appreciation, thus either leaving the rate near this line or pressuring it back lower down to another channel line at 1,280.00.
NZD/CAD 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
The movement for the NZD/CAD exchange rate has been constrained by a dominant descending channel for the past two months. This decline has led the Kiwi to a five-month low level.
Since May 8, bears dominance in the market over the currency pair has been significant. The pair is currently trading in a falling wedge. Furthermore, the 55– hour simple moving average has pressured the rate further south.
Technical indicators suggest another set of decline for the currency exchange rate during the following trading sessions. However, a brief reverse north from the weekly support level at 0.88 could be a possibility within this session.
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Pair Points To Surge
The AUD/NZD currency pair has been guided by an ascending channel since early April. The exchange rate bounced off it bottom border on April 13 and has since remained trading along the pattern.
The Aussie has gained 2.38% against the New Zealand Dollar during the past one week. This surged began after the price reversed from a dominant ascending channel at the 1.06 mark. Also, the 100– hour simple moving average supported the rate at the same mark which helped push the price movement higher.
Technical indicators demonstrate that the present rally is likely to continue during the following trading sessions until it reaches the upper boundary of the aforementioned pattern.
EUR/USD: US Building Permits
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following US Retail Sales data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained only 2 pips, or 0.02%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1805 area.
The Census Bureau released two data sets simultaneously, where Residential Building Permits for the month of April came out in line with a forecast of 1.35M, moreover, the same number was released in the previous period.
The US Dollar's slight weakening may be affected due to the lower-than-expected Housing Starts data of 1.29M, compared to the forecast of 1.32M.
AUDUSD – Data-Inspired Rally Cracks 20SMA But Without Clear Break So Far
The Aussie dollar rose to 0.7547 on Thursday, driven by solid Australian jobs data and extending strong rally on Wednesday which left a higher base at 0.7447 (Tue/Wed lows).
Strengthening momentum and 5/10SMA bull-cross are supportive for recovery attempts which cracked falling 20SMA (0.7534) in today’s extension.
Close above 20SMA is needed to boost bulls for eventual attack at key near-term barrier at 0.7565 (Tue/Wed highs / Fibo 38.2% of 0.7812/0.7412), as break here is required to confirm base and open way for stronger recovery.
Failure to clear 20SMA would signal further range trading and keep the downside at risk as larger picture is bearish.
Res: 0.7534, 0.7547, 0.7565, 0.7584
Sup: 0.7507, 0.7478, 0.7447, 0.7412
USDJPY – Extension Above 200SMA Pressures Key Fibo Barrier At 110.87
Fresh bullish acceleration on Thursday neutralizes initial negative signal on Wednesday's Hanging Man candle and moves towards next pivotal barriers at 110.84/87 (27 Nov low / Fibo 61.8% of larger 114.73/104.63 fall).
Repeated close above 200SMA, which also contained today's dips, was strong bullish signal for continuation of an uptrend from 104.63 (26 Mar low). Close above 110.87 Fibo barrier would open way for test of round-figure 112 barrier (also base of weekly cloud, spanned between 111.96 and 112.99). Broken former strong barriers at 110.15 (200SMA) and psychological 110 are expected to keep the downside protected.
Res: 110.87, 111.00, 111.48, 112.00
Sup: 110.45, 110.15, 110.00, 109.68
GBPUSD – Recovery Attempts Attack 200SMA But Without Firm Break For Now
Cable cracked 200SMA barrier on fresh upside attempts in early Thursday's trading after repeated rejection at near-term congestion floor on Tue/Wed. Sterling received fresh support from news the UK is prepared to stay in EU customs union beyond 2021, but recovery action requires confirmation on firm break above 200SMA (1.3553). The notion is supported by strengthening momentum studies. On the other side, daily MA's in full bearish setup and thick falling 4-hr cloud maintain bearish pressure, with repeated close below 200SMA needed to keep bearish near-term bias in play. Eventual break below congestion low (1.3451) and another key support at 1.3442 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1930/1.4376 ascend) would generate strong bearish signal for continuation of short-term downtrend from 1.4376 (17 Apr peak). Initial bullish signal would be generated on close above 200SMA, however, firm break above congestion top at 1.3617 is needed to signal formation of base and stronger recovery.
Res: 1.3530, 1.3553, 1.3569, 1.3617
Sup: 1.3481, 1.3451, 1.3442, 1.3400
German Merkel to Trump: Tariff exemptions first, before reciprocal trade talks
Regarding US steel tariffs, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said "we have a common position. We want a permanent exemption and then we are ready to talk how we can reciprocally reduce the barriers to trade." That's seen as having a firm stance as US has to concede the steel tariffs before trade talks. And the talks have to be "reciprocally.
Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his backing on the proposals by the European Commission to protect European companies affected by US sanctions for Iran. Macron said arriving a summit of EU in Sofia, Bulgaria that EU must stand by smaller companies which were willing to carry on Iran businesses.
He added "international companies with interests in many countries make their own choices according to their own interests. They should continue to have this freedom."
"But what is important is that companies and especially medium-sized companies which are perhaps less exposed to other markets, American or others, can make this choice freely."
PM Theresa May cleared the air: “The United Kingdom will be leaving the customs union”
The rumors that UK would stay in the customs union after Brexit triggered a strong rebound in the Pound earlier today. But UK Prime Minister Theresa May was quick to clear up the air.
She said, "No, we are not [climbing down]. The United Kingdom will be leaving the customs union, we are leaving the European Union. Of course we will be negotiating future customs arrangements with the European Union and I have set three objectives; the government has three objectives in those.
"We need to be able to have our own independent trade policy, we want as frictionless a border [as possible] between the UK and the EU so that trade can continue and we want to ensure there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland."








