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Euro-Zone’s Consumer Confidence Surprisingly Rose In April

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.50% against the USD and closed at 1.2282 on Friday.

Separately, the US dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Friday, boosted by higher US Treasury yields.

On the macro front, the Euro-zone’s flash consumer confidence index unexpectedly advanced to a level of 0.4 in April, defying market expectations for a drop to a level of -0.1. In the previous month, the index had registered a level of 0.1.

Separately, Germany’s producer price index (PPI) advanced less-than-anticipated by 1.9% on a yearly basis in March, compared to a rise of 1.8% in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated the PPI to climb 2.0%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2275, with the EUR trading 0.06% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2232, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2190. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2335, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2396.

Trading trend in the Euro today is expected to be determined by the flash Markit manufacturing and services PMIs data for April, scheduled to release across the Euro-zone in a few hours. Moreover, the US flash Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for April as well as existing home sales data for March, due to release later in the day, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Pound Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.46% against the USD and closed at 1.4017 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4022, with the GBP trading slightly higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3983, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3945. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4073, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4125.

Amid no macroeconomic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Japanese Manufacturing Sector Activity Slightly Advanced In April

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.21% against the JPY and closed at 107.65 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 107.82, with the USD trading 0.16% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.

Data released overnight indicated that Japan’s preliminary Nikkei manufacturing PMI climbed to a level of 53.3 in April, compared to a level of 53.1 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 107.57, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.32. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.98, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.14.

Going ahead, traders would look forward to Japan’s final leading economic and coincident indices for February, set to release tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading Slightly Lower This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.69% against the CAD and closed at 1.2753 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar declined against the USD, following weaker-than-expected rise in Canadian inflation.

Data indicated that Canada's consumer price index (CPI) advanced 2.3% on an annual basis in March, less than market expectations for a gain of 2.4%. In the prior month, the CPI had risen 2.2%. Meanwhile, the nation's retail sales grew 0.4% MoM in February, meeting market expectations and compared to a revised increase of 0.1% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2755, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2669, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2582. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2806, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2856.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Canada’s Annual Inflation Growth Softer-Than-Anticipated In March

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.69% against the CAD and closed at 1.2753 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar declined against the USD, following weaker-than-expected rise in Canadian inflation.

Data indicated that Canada's consumer price index (CPI) advanced 2.3% on an annual basis in March, less than market expectations for a gain of 2.4%. In the prior month, the CPI had risen 2.2%. Meanwhile, the nation's retail sales grew 0.4% MoM in February, meeting market expectations and compared to a revised increase of 0.1% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2755, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2669, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2582. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2806, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2856.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Gold: Yellow Metal Trading Lower This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.81% against the USD and closed at USD1337.50 per ounce on Friday, amid a broad strength in the greenback.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1335.30, with gold trading 0.16% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1330.73, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1326.17. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1343.33, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1351.37.

The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Silver: White Metal Extends Its Losses In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.72% against the USD and closed at USD17.13 per ounce on Friday, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 17.06, with silver trading 0.41% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 17.00, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.93. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 17.17, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 17.28.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Crude Oil: Oil Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.44% against the USD and closed at USD68.11 per barrel on Friday, after fresh figures from Baker Hughes disclosed that active oil rigs in US increased by 5 to 820 in the week ended 20 April, thus pointing to a further rise in the nation’s crude output. Moreover, comments from the US President, Donald Trump that prices were “artificially very high” further weighed on oil prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 68.23, with oil trading 0.18% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 67.59, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 66.96. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 68.76, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 69.30.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

EUR/USD Bearish Wave C And GBP/USD Challenges 1.40 Support

The EUR/USD failed to break resistance and is now building bearish price action within a final leg of the bullish wave 4 correction. Rather than breaking resistance, price in fact broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and it isexpanding the bearish correction via a WXY (blue) pattern. The wave 4 (pink) is therefore most likely still open but price could close to completing that wave structure at the support zone (green lines).

The EUR/USD broke multiple support lines and is building a bearish channel. Currently price could be in a bearish wave 4 (brown), as long as price stays below the 61.8% Fib and previous bottom (red line). There could be still one or even two more lower lows if price expands the 3rd wave (orange).

The GBP/USD bearish momentum could indicate the end of the bullish trend and the start of a new bearish reversal (wave 1-2) or ABC correction. The 1.40 round level is a potential support area which could create a bullish bounce as part of a wave 2 or B.

The GBP/USD is probably moving lowerin a bearish wave 5 (brown). A bearish break below 1.40 could indicate an immediate bearish continuation for one more lower but eventually a bullish retracement is likely.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7639; (P) 0.7685; (R1) 0.7715; More...

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but intraday bias remains on the downside with 0.7702 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.7642 support will resume the whole decline from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key support level next. Break there will indicate medium term reversal. On the upside, above 0.7702 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.7812 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.