Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.86; (P) 132.41; (R1) 132.80; More....

The corrective rise from 128.94 is likely completed at 133.08, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retesting 128.95 low. On the upside, above 133.08 will extend such rebound. But even in that case, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and below.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we'd expect more corrective range trading, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

The British pound remains under selling pressure against the U.S dollar, after a strongly bearish weekly price close well below the 1.4100 level. The GBPUSD pair currently trades around the 1.4018 level in early week trading, after earlier finding technical support from the 1.3991 level. Traders now look toward the key 1.4000 handle for direction, with the U.S Manufacturing PMI headlining Monday’s macroeconomic calendar.

The GBPUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 1.4000 level, further losses towards the 1.3960 and 1.3890 levels remains possible.

If the GBPUSD pair moves back above the 1.4048 level, buyers may test towards the 1.4100 and 1.4149 resistance levels.

The euro continues to trade to the downside against the U.S dollar, ahead of a raft of key Manufacturing and Services data from the eurozone economy. The EURUSD pair currently trades around the key 1.2275 level, after finding strong technical support from the 1.2260 level on Friday. The trading-range on the EURUSD pair may start to narrow, as traders become cautious ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting.

The EURUSD pair is bearish while trading below 1.2300 level, further losses towards the 1.2248 and 1.2210 remain possible.

If the EURUSD pair starts to trade above the 1.2300 resistance level, buyers may start to target the 1.2320 and 1.2344 levels.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8738; (P) 0.8765; (R1) 0.8796; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for the moment. short term bottom should be formed after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8745 from 0.8967 at 0.8621. Break of 0.8796 will pave the way to key cluster resistance at 0.8967 (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963) next. On the downside, break of 0.8688 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 0.8620 instead.

In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we'd be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Economic data is in the spotlight again on Monday, with PMI reports from Europe and the United States set to generate significant headlines for currency traders. The reports on manufacturing and services will kick off what's expected to be a highly active week in the markets.

The first PMI report of the day will be released at 07:00 GMT courtesy of Markit. The French manufacturing, services and Composite PMI indicators are due at that time. Composite PMI essentially reflects the combined services and manufacturing components of the monthly survey.

PMI data for Germany is scheduled for release at 07:30 GMT. The Composite indicator is forecast to ease to 57.6 in April from 58.2 the previous month.

A report on the Eurozone's Composite PMI is scheduled to come in at 08:00 GMT. The April reading is expected to come in at 54.2, down from 55.2 in March.

Shifting gears to the United States, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank will release its National Activity Index at 12:30 GMT. The monthly indicator for March is expected to come in at 0.41, which is less than half of the February reading.

At 13:45 GMT, Markit will release three PMI indicators for the United States covering services, manufacturing and the broader economy (Composite). The Composite indicator is projected to strengthen to 55.3 from 54.2 the previous month.

US housing data will also make headlines Monday when the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports on existing home sales. March sales are forecast to rise 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted 5.55 million. That follows a gain of 3% the month before.

North of the border, the Canadian government will report on wholesale sales at 12:30 GMT, although the report isn't expected to generate much headlines.

EUR/USD

Europe's common currency continued lower on Monday, with prices falling to the low 1.2270 US range. EUR/USD has been in decline since Wednesday; over that period, the exchange rate has dropped more than 100 pips. The currency pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2300. On the opposite side of the spectrum, support is located at 1.2260.

GBP/USD

The British pound was holding steady at the start of Monday trading after plunging nearly 350 pips from the 17 April high. Cable is now trading in the low-1.4000 range, where prices were holding just below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA). Immediate support is located at the 5 April swing low of 1.3965.

USD/CAD

A surge in crude prices last week failed to lift the Canadian dollar, with the USD/CAD making another run toward 1.2800. The pair was last seen trading at 1.2764. Economic data is in focus this week, with stronger than expected US results set to drive the pair higher.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5973; (P) 1.6002; (R1) 1.6041; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral with focus on 1.6059 resistance now. Break there will indicate completion of the pull back from 1.6189. And in that case, larger rise from 1.3624 is likely still in progress. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.6189 first. However, on the downside, below 1.5847 minor support will suggest that rebound form 1.5773 has completed and fall from 1.6189 is resuming. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 1.5773 and then 1.5621 key support level next.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

XAUUSD (1334.04):Gold prices were seen extending the declines after the minor rising trend line was breached last week. The declines could see a retest back to the breakout level of the trend line. Therefore, gold prices could reverse the losses and retest the 1344 level where resistance could be established. A reversal at this level could potentially signal further declines as price is likely to test the lower support level at 1325. Alternately, if gold prices manage to breakout above 1344 level then we could expect to see another retest back to the main resistance level at 1354.

GBPUSD (1.4016):The British pound continued to extend losses with price action closing near the strong support level of 1.4000 region. The declines could potentially stall in the near term with a rebound off the support level widely expected. To the upside, the resistance level at 1.4162 could be tested and GBPUSD could maintain the range in the near term. To the downside, a breakdown below 1.4000 level could signal further declines toward the 1.3902 level of support.

EURUSD (1.2271): The EURUSD extended declines for a second day as prices briefly fell to lows of 1.2250 before pulling back slightly. The retest close to the support level at 1.2243 came after price action fell strongly from the sideways range that was established at 1.2385 - 1.2300. In the near term, we expect to see a modest rebound in prices as EURUSD could potentially retrace the losses to test the breached support level of 1.2300 where resistance could be established. As long as the resistance level isn’t hit, the currency pair could be seen maintaining the new range of 1.2300 and 1.2243.

The U.S. dollar was seen posting gains by Friday's close. Economic data was mostly quiet on the day. Canada's inflation report showed a slower than expected pace of rise in inflation. Headline CPI was seen rising just 0.3%, missing forecasts of a 0.4% increase. This was also slower than the 0.6% increase in inflation registered in the month before.

Core retail sales data showed a flat print for the month with previous month's core retail sales revised higher to show 1.0% increase. Headline retail sales increased 0.4% on a month over month basis as expected.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is busy for the day ahead from the Eurozone. Flash manufacturing and services PMI reports will be coming out reflecting on the state of business activity in the Eurozone for the month of April. In the first three months, manufacturing and services sector's growth was seen stalling.

The NY trading session will see the BoC Governor Poloz speaking in the evening. The BoC governor's speech comes just a week after the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged but signaled further rate hikes this year. Economic data from the U.S. will see he release of the flash manufacturing PMI from Markit.