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Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.68; (P) 152.65; (R1) 153.25; More...

GBP/JPY's consolidation from 153.84 is still in progress but it's staying well above 151.15 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 151.15 minor support to bring rise resumption. Above 153.83 will extend the rally from 144.97 and target to retest 156.96 high. However, break of 151.15 will suggest that such rebound from 144.97 has completed and bring retest of this support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 156.59 are viewed as a corrective pattern. For now, we'd expect at least one more fall for 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 before the consolidation completed. Though, firm break of 156.59 will resume whole up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 at 159.11 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8663; (P) 0.8693; (R1) 0.8741; More...

EUR/GBP edges higher to 0.83735 today but stays below 0.8739 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. For now, we'd still expect strong resistance from 0.8379 to limit upside and bring fall resumption. Break of 61.8% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8745 from 0.8967 at 0.8621 will extend larger decline to 100% projection at 0.8407. However, sustained break of 0.8739 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to 0.8796 and above.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

NZDUSD has been consolidating since February and has been stuck in a channel tilted slightly to the downside. The neutral to bearish picture in the medium term looks to last for a while longer after prices failed to break above the upper channel in the prior week.

Resistance was met at around the 0.7400 psychological level, which overlaps with the upper boundary after prices hit an almost 2-month high of 0.7395, forcing the pair to reverse lower. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is flattening below the 50 level, while the MACD oscillator is holding near the trigger line and below the zero line.

Should the pair manage to strengthen its negative momentum, the next support could come around the 0.7300 key level, which is converging with the lower Bollinger band. A break below this level would signal a resumption of the longer-term downtrend and the pair could touch the 0.7240 barrier.

Conversely, if prices are unable to continue the downward movement, the bearish bias could shift to bullish with significant resistance the 0.7342 support, which holds near the mid-level of the Bollinger band (20-simple moving average). An upside break of that zone would open the door for the upper Bollinger boundary around 0.7370.

The pair holds in green for the second day and retested initial barrier at 107.50 (05 Apr former high).

Today’s action is supported by 10SMA (107.10) and underpinned by daily cloud base (106.89) which maintains bullish bias.

Bulls eye initial target at 107.77 (13 Apr recovery peak), break of which is needed to open way for extension towards 107.90 (21 Feb high) and 108.25 (Fibo 61.8% of 110.48/104.63 descend).

Dip-buying above cloud base remains favored near-term scenario, while return and close below daily cloud would weaken near-term structure and risk dip towards higher base at 106.60 zone.

Res: 107.77, 107.90, 108.25, 108.77
Sup: 107.10, 106.89, 106.60, 106.45

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5865; (P) 1.5914; (R1) 1.5947; More....

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral first. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside of recovery to be limited below 1.6055 minor resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.5773 will target 1.5621 support first. Decisive break there will be another indication of medium term trend reversal. However, break of 1.6059 will turn focus back to 1.6189 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.36; (P) 132.63; (R1) 132.95; More....

EUR/JPY's rise continue with weak upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. While further rebound could be seen, upside will now likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and below. On the downside, below 132.10 minor support will suggests that the rebound from 128.94 might have completed. And, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 128.94 low.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we'd expect more corrective range trading, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1955; (P) 1.1974; (R1) 1.2004; More...

EUR/CHF's rally extends today and reaches as high as 1.1996 so far, just inch below 1.2 handle. While it's staying to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, intraday bias stays on the upside as long as 1.1959 minor support holds. Sustained break of 1.2 will extend the current up trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0629 to 1.1832 from 1.1445 at 1.2188. On the downside, below 1.1959 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.1832 should now extend the medium term up trend through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. 2013 high at 1.2649 should be the next target. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1445 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

The EUR/GBP has broken through the descending trendline and we can see a potential for bullish continuation. Another cue is the U-shaped bottom that has been formed exactly at W L3 support. 0.8688-98 is the POC zone for potential bounces. Targets are 0.8739 and 0.8770. Only if 0.8770 breaks we might see Monthly (M) Pivots as next targets. Have in mind that EUR/GBP is both EUR and GBP news dependent, so any important news could spike the price in both directions, but generally the intraday trend is up.

W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)

M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)

M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.2347

The bias is slightly positive, with a risk of another leg upwards, to 1.2430. Key support lies at 1.2340.

USD/JPY

Current level - 107.42

The outlook remains bullish above 106.60, for a rise towards 108.30 area.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1..4200

Yesterday's sell-off reached a local low at 1.4170 and the corrective pattern above that level could challenge 1.4280 resistance before drowning towards 1.4120.

Another day, another data miss in the UK.

Retail sales including auto and fuel dropped -1.2% mom in March, well below expectation of -0.6%. Annual rate rose 1.1% yoy, below expectation of 1.9% yoy.

Retail sales excluding auto and fuel dropped -0.5%, below expectation of -0.4%. Annual rate rose 1.1% yoy, below expectation of 1.4% yoy.

Main points from ONS:

• In the three months to March 2018 (Quarter 1), the quantity bought in retail sales fell by 0.5% when compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017, with declines in all sectors except for department stores and non-store retailing.
• The month-on-month growth rate fell by 1.2% due to a large fall of 7.4% from petrol sales; a likely consequence of adverse weather conditions, which impacted travel.
• Department stores were the only sector to show positive growth in March at 0.8%, with feedback from retailers suggesting that online offers for Mothering Sunday and Easter boosted internet sales more than usual during the adverse weather.
• The quantity bought in supermarket stores declined in March, while specialist food stores saw strong growth; possibly due to the easier access to these stores during snow.
• Online sales accounted for 17.4% of all retailing, seasonally adjusted in March 2018, compared with 15.9% in March 2017; the strongest growth on the same month a year earlier came from department stores at 33%.

Statistician's comment

Commenting on today's official retail figures, Rhian Murphy, ONS Senior Statistician said:

• "Retail sales fell in the first quarter due to a large decline in March with petrol sales seeing a significant slump as a result of the poor weather keeping many shoppers indoors. However, the snow actually helped boost online spending with department stores in particular seeing growth in their web sales.
• "Various shops also reported increased spending on gifts in the run-up to Easter and Mother's Day, which also helped boost online sales."

GBP dips initially after the release, for so far, there is no follow through selling yet.