Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2560; (P) 1.2609; (R1) 1.2676; More....

As noted before, a short term bottom should be in place at 1.2526. Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside for recovering to 38.2% retracement of 1.2942 to 1.2526 at 1.2685, or even further to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2730). But upside should be limited well below 1.2814 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. We'd expect decline from 1.3124 to extend later to 1.2061/2246 support zone.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4689 (2016 high) to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

CL_F Elliott Wave short-term view suggests that the decline to 61.80 on 4/06/2018 low ended Intermediate wave (2). Above from there, Intermediate wave (3) remains in progress as Zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Looking to extend higher towards 70.43-72.47 area at a minimum. Up from 61.80 low, the instrument made a strong rally higher. And ended Minor wave A at 67.45 high in 5 waves structure.

The internals of Minor wave A unfolded in 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((i)) at 62.43, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 62.09. Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 66.44 and Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 65.71 low. And Minute wave ((v)) of A ended at 67.45. The instrument then made a 3 waves correction lower in Minor wave B pullback as a Flat. Down from 67.45, Minute wave ((a)) at 66 low, Minute wave ((b)) at 67.76 and Minute wave ((c)) of B ended at 65.56 low.

Above from there, the instrument already broke to new highs confirming the next extension higher in Minor wave C of (3). Therefore looking for the extension higher towards 70.43-72.47 as noted above. Up from 65.56 low, the instrument is expected to end 5 waves in Minute wave ((i)) of C soon. And should see a pullback in Minute wave ((ii)) of C in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling it.

CL_F Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

General Trend:

• Asian equity markets trade generally higher
• BHP rises over 2% after Q3 production update
• Asian aluminum producers rise after results from Alcoa and rise in prices
• South Korean chipmakers gain ahead of expected results from Taiwan Semi
• Chinese automakers rebound after losses on Wed’s session
• New Zealand Q1 CPI slows and remains within RBNZ’s target (1-3%)
• Australia March Employment change missed ests
• AUD/JPY gains with rise in equities and Chinese metals prices
• China FX Regulator SAFE said the US dollar (USD) to remain under pressure ; Yuan rises
• PBoC continues to inject liquidity in its open market operations (OMOs)
• Hong Kong 3-month HKD Hibor continues to rise, hits highest since late 2008
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) official said HK$50B in outflows is not too much, has not seen large short-selling orders for HKD
• Australia REIT Charter Hall Long Wale increases interest rate hedge position
• Japan Chief Cabinet Sec dismisses talk that Abe/Trump summit ended without progress
• Aluminum prices climb in the region and on LME
• Japan March CPI data due on Friday

Headlines/Economic Data

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.3%; closed +0.2%
• TOPIX Iron & Steel index +2.4%; Retail Trade -0.6%, Real Estate -0.4%
• Softbank, 9984.JP: Follow Up: Failed to declare ¥93.9B income from tax haven units - Nikkei
• (JP) Japan PM Abe holds joint press conference with President Trump in US: Japanese investments in the US have been gaining momentum, Has agreed with Trump to start talks on 'fair, free and reciprocal' trade'
• Subaru, 7270.JP Said to have falsified data on fuel and exhaust tests - Japanese media
• (JP) Japan Investors Net Buying of Foreign Bonds: +¥797.6B v -¥609.4B prior week; Foreign Net Buying of Japan Stocks: +¥308.3B v +¥332.9B prior week
• ( JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Not true US economic talks ended without progress
• (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥1.0T v ¥1.0T indicated in % (prior 0.50%) 20-yr bonds; avg yield 0.5000% v 0.5430% prior; bid to cover 3.69x v 4.47x prior
• (JP) BoJ: No particular signs of overheating in financial cycle - Financial System Report

Korea

• Kospi opened +0.1%
• (KR) South Korea Mar PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3% prior
• (KR) US seeking to denuclearize North Korea by 2020 – press
• Korean Air, 003490.KR Offices said to have been raided by police officials in South Korea - South Korean press
• (KR) South Korea sharp increase in the minimum wage applied to all workplaces is pushing many small companies to cut their payrolls to cope with labor costs - Korean press

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened +0.8%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%
• Hang Seng Materials index +4.3%, Energy +4% Consumer Goods +1.9%, Industrial Goods +1.8%, Info Tech +1.6%, Financials +1.4%, Property/Construction +1.2%
• (HK) Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA): purchases total HK$17.63B to defend currency peg – press
• (CN) China Q1 convertible bond issuance nears 2017 level – China Securities Times
• (HK) Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Dep Chief Executive Howard Lee: Operation in banking system has been smooth; has not noted any 'large' short-selling orders on Hong Kong Dollar (HKD)
• (HK) Hong Kong 3-month HIBOR highest level since Dec 2008
• (CN) China Dalian Iron ore gains over 4%, trades near CNY468/ton
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY190B v CNY150B in 7-day reverse repos prior; Net: injects CNY190B v CNY150B prior
• (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate at 6.2832 v 6.2817 prior
• (CN) Following the earlier this week targeted China PBoC 100bps RRR cut, analysts see additional cuts in the RRR ahead – financial press
• (CN) China NDRC: Has cut commercial and industrial electricity prices by avg of 10%, part of plan to lower costs for companies
• (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) Domestic consumption to keep ‘rapid’ growth; US/China trade war will not only hurt US factory workers but also consumers
• (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) to implement temporary anti-dumping measures on halogenated butyl rubber imported from US, EU and Singapore

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened +0.4%
• ASX 200 Resources index +2.2%, Energy +0.7%; Telecom -0.6%, REIT -0.3%, Financials -0.2%
• (NZ) RBNZ Gov Orr: Expects very benign inflation going forward; doggedly determined to aim for 2% inflation
• (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 CPI Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.4%; Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.1%E
• (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +4.9K V +20.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.5% V 5.5%E; Prior Employment Change Revised Lower from +17.5K to -6.3K
• BHP, [+2.7%], BHP.AU Reports Q3 Iron Ore production 67.0Mt v 69Mte v 62Mt y/y; Cuts FY18 iron ore production outlook
• (AU) Australia Mar RBA Govt FX Transactions (A$): -985M v -438M prior
• (AU) Australia Fin Min Cormann: Govt is willing to give the royal commissioner more time (beyond the 12-months initially given) if needed to investigate banking industry – AFR
• (NZ) New Zealand sells NZ$200M in 2.75% 2037 Bonds; avg yield 3.3918%, bid to cover 2.65x

Other Asia

• (IN) India authorities are rushing to print more money and avert a cash crunch reminiscent of the crisis ignited by a sudden ban on big denomination notes in November 2016 - Nikkei
• TSMC, 2330.TW Reports Q1 (NT$) Net 89.8B v 89.8Be, Op 96.8B v 95.4B y/y, Rev 248.1B v 233.9B y/y

North America

• US equity markets ended mostly higher: Dow -0.1%, S&P500 +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +1.1%
• S&P500 Energy +1.6%, Industrials +1%; Consumer Staples -0.8%, Financials -0.4%
• QCOM China MOFCOM: Reviewing Qualcomm, NXP deal, deal may have negative impact on market
• (US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Fed should return to neutral policy before labor market tightens; feel confident in the growth outlook; I would not take much signal from the slowdown in consumer spending in the first two months of this year; Recent fiscal and trade policy developments are likely to increase the uncertainty around the distance to a neutral monetary policy stance and the possibility that the FOMC will have to move to a restrictive stance.
• (US) Fed's Quarles (hawk, FOMC voter): small banks ought to have different liquidity rules; Do not view current flattening of yield curve as a signal for a recession
• (US) Fed's Rosengren (moderate, non-voter) suggested US does not have buffers for next downturn - US financial press
• (US) DOE Crude: -1.1M v -0.5Me

Europe

• (UK) House of Lords votes for Brexit amendment that would keep the UK in the Customs Union with the EU (as expected); vote was 348-225, going against PM May's wishes; The amended EU Withdrawal bill now goes back to the House of Commons after the Lords vote
• Rocket Internet [RKET.DE]: PLDT sees no pressure to divest shares in Rocket Internet - Philippines press
• GKN [GKN.UK]: UK government may approve merger with Melrose by as early as next week -FT

Levels as of 02:00ET

• Hang Seng +1.3%; Shanghai Composite +0.9%; Kospi +0.2%; ASX 200 +0.3%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%, Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 +0.0%
• EUR 1.2385-1.2364; JPY 107.51-107.18; AUD 0.7812-0.7764;NZD 0.7343-0.7309
• Jun Gold +0.1% at $1,355/oz; May Crude Oil +0.6% at $68.86/brl; May Copper +0.0% at $3.16/lb

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.24% against the USD and closed at 0.7789.

LME Copper prices rose 2.24% or $152.0/MT to $6936.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 6.44% or $153.0/MT to $2528.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7791, with the AUD trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5% in March, meeting market expectations.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7757, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7723. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7812, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7833.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.06% against the USD and closed at 1.2380.

On the data front, the Euro-zone's final consumer price index (CPI) grew less than initially estimated by 1.3% on a yearly basis in March, while the preliminary figures had indicated a rise of 1.4%. The CPI had recorded an increase of 1.1% in the prior month.

In other economic news, the region's seasonally adjusted construction output slid 0.5% on a monthly basis in February, following a revised drop of 0.8% in the prior month.

Separately, according to the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book report, economic activity in the US expanded at a ‘modest to moderate' pace in March and early April. However, businesses expressed concerns over widening global trade disputes and newly introduced trade tariffs. Further, firms reported solid business borrowing, continued robust job growth as well as rising consumer spending in the US economy.

In economic news, the MBA mortgage applications in the US rebounded 4.9% in the week ended 13 April 2018, compared to a fall of 1.9% in the prior week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2380, with the EUR trading flat against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2349, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2318. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2404, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2428.

Moving ahead, investors would focus on the Euro-zone's current account data for February, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, the US initial jobless claims as well as Philadelphia Fed business outlook index for April, scheduled to release later today, will be eyed by market participants.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.61% against the USD and closed at 1.4207, after the latest data indicated that British annual inflation growth eased to a one-year low level in March.

Data indicated that Britain's consumer price index (CPI) advanced 2.5% on an annual basis in March, rising at its weakest pace in a year and casting doubt over the Bank of England's (BoE) ability to hike interest rate in May. Market participants had envisaged the CPI to rise by 2.7%, after registering a gain of 2.7% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4200, with the GBP trading 0.05% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.4144, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4089. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4285, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4371.

Moving ahead, investors would direct their attention to UK's retail sales data for March, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.21% against the JPY and closed at 107.24.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 107.43, with the USD trading 0.18% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 107.18, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.93. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.60, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.77.

Moving ahead, traders would keep a close watch on Japan’s national consumer price index for March, due to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.14% against the CHF and closed at 0.9684.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9684, with the USD trading flat against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9657, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9630. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9705, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9726.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.56% against the CAD and closed at 1.2625.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada (BoC), at its April monetary policy meeting, decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 1.25%, citing an economic slowdown early this year. Further, the central bank reiterated its view that further interest-rate hikes will be warranted over time as officials expect the economy to rebound but added that it will follow a cautious approach when weighing future decisions. Moreover, the central bank downgraded its 2018 economic growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.2%, due to the weaker than expected start to the year. Nevertheless, growth in 2019 is estimated to be 2.1%, before easing to 1.8% in 2020.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2631, with the USD trading 0.05% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2567, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2502. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2678, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2724.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.22% against the USD and closed at USD1352.70 per ounce, extending its previous session gains.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at USD1353.30, with gold trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1345.87, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1338.43. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1359.87, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1366.43.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.