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Australia’s Westpac Leading Index Eased In March
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.14% against the USD and closed at 0.7770.
LME Copper prices declined 0.40% or $27.5/MT to $6784.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.72% or $17.0/MT to $2375.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7767, with the AUD trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
Data released overnight revealed that Australia's Westpac leading index retreated 0.22% on a monthly basis in March, compared to a revised rise of 0.43% in the previous month.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7754, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7742. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7785, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7804.
Looking ahead, market participants would await the release of Australia's unemployment rate for March, due to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
German Investor Morale Deteriorated To A More Than 5-Year Low In April
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.2372 as the latest data offered further evidence of a decline in investor optimism across the Euro-zone.
Data indicated that the Euro-zone’s ZEW economic sentiment index eased to a level of 1.9 in April. In the previous month, the index had recorded a level of 13.4.
Separately, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index declined to a level of -8.2 in April, marking its weakest reading since November 2012, as concerns over international trade disputes as well as tensions in Syria weighed on investor morale. In the previous month, the index had recorded a reading of 5.1, while market participants had expected for a fall to a level of -1.0. Moreover, the nation’s ZEW current situation index dropped to a level of 87.9 in April, more than market consensus for a fall to a level of 88.0. The index had registered a level of 90.7 in the previous month.
The greenback advanced against its major peers, as a slew of upbeat economic releases in the US underlined strength in the world’s largest economy.
Data revealed that housing starts in the US unexpectedly climbed 1.9% on monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1319.0K in March, confounding market expectations for a fall to a level of 1267.0K and aided by a rebound in the construction of multi-family homes. Housing starts had registered a revised reading of 1295.0K in the prior month. Furthermore, the nation’s building permits registered an unexpected rise of 2.5% on monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1354.0K in March, while investors had envisaged it to remain steady at a revised level of 1321.0K recorded in the previous month.
Another set of data showed that manufacturing production in the US climbed 0.1% on a monthly basis in March, meeting market expectations and after jumping by a revised 1.5% in the prior month. Also, the nation’s industrial production rose 0.5% on a monthly basis in March, topping market consensus for an advance of 0.3%. In the prior month, industrial production had recorded a revised rise of 1.0%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2380, with the EUR trading 0.06% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2339, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2299. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2417, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2455.
Going ahead, investors would focus on Euro-zone’s final inflation figures for March and construction output data for February, both due to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the release of the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, will garner significant amount of investor attention.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Britain’s Jobless Rate Surprisingly Fell To Its Lowest Since 1975 In The Three Months To February 2018
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.31% against the USD and closed at 1.4294, following weaker-than-expected wage growth figures in the UK.
Data indicated that Britain's average earnings including bonus climbed 2.8% on a yearly basis the three months to February 2018, falling short of market expectations for an advance of 3.0%. In the November-January 2018 period, the average earnings including bonus had registered a similar rise. Meanwhile, the nation's ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to a 42-year low of 4.2% in the December-February 2018 period, while investors had envisaged for a steady reading. In the November-January 2018 period, the ILO unemployment rate had registered a reading of 4.3%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4306, with the GBP trading 0.08% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.4267, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4228. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4361, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4416.
Moving ahead, all eyes would be on UK's crucial inflation numbers for March, slated to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japan Recorded A More-Than-Expected Adjusted Merchandise Trade Surplus In March
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.10% against the JPY and closed at 107.02.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 107.26, with the USD trading 0.22% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
Overnight data showed that Japan posted an adjusted merchandise trade surplus of ¥119.2 billion in March, compared to a deficit of ¥201.5 billion in the prior month. Market expectation was for the nation to record an adjusted merchandise trade surplus of ¥104.0 billion.
The pair is expected to find support at 106.98, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.71. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.43, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.61.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Higher This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.75% against the CHF and closed at 0.9670.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9669, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9607, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9546. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9704, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9740.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Canada’s Manufacturing Shipments Advanced In February
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.11% against the CAD and closed at 1.2555.
On the data front, Canada's manufacturing shipments grew 1.9% on a monthly basis in February, beating market consensus for a rise of 0.8%. Manufacturing shipments had fallen by a revised 1.3% in the prior month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2568, with the USD trading 0.10% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2538, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2507. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2589, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2609.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
Gold: Yellow Metal Trading Lower In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.07% against the USD and closed at USD1350.30 per ounce, reversing its previous session losses.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1347.20, with gold trading 0.23% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1341.07, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1334.93. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1352.47, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1357.73.
The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.54% against the USD and closed at USD16.78 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.75, with silver trading 0.15% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 16.62, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.48. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.85, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.94.
The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading On A Stronger Footing, Ahead Of EIA’s Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.24% against the USD and closed at USD66.59 per barrel, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.0 million barrels to 428.0 million barrels in the week ended 13 April.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 66.83, with oil trading 0.36% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 65.95, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 65.06. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 67.33, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 67.82.
Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2526; (P) 1.2552; (R1) 1.2577; More....
USD/CAD's decline from 1.3124 resumed and dipped to 1.2526. But downside momentum is weak and there is no follow through selling yet. Nonetheless, intraday bias will now stay on the downside. Further fall would be seen to 1.2061/2246 support zone. However, break of 1.2622 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming. And lengthier consolidation would be seen before another fall.
In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4689 (2016 high) to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.










