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GBP/USD rising move stops, decreasing after reaching 1.4097 high and approaching hourly support at 1.3980 (30/01/2018 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1.4278 (02/02/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term decrease.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline but the pair is moving to 2016 highs. Long-term support and resistance are given at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low) and 1.5018 (24/06/2016 high).

EUR/USD recovery phase stops, the pair is weakening, heading along the 1.2250 range. The pair is currently maintained between hourly support and resistance given at 1.2165 (17/01/2018 low) and 1.2506 (25/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term downward moves.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2886 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

The Aussie dollar remains offered on Thursday and probes back below 10SMA (0.7688), as the greenback regains traction on reduced trade war fears.

The pair failed to sustain recovery after Wednesday’s dip and subsequent bounce, which resulted in eventual close above 10SMA and posting marginally higher high at 0.7726 today.

As mentioned in my previous reports, bearish configuration of daily studies maintains pressure and suggests limited recovery actions (helped by strengthening momentum) which should be ideally capped under falling 20SMA (currently at 0.7735) and Fibo 38.2% of 0.7916 / 0.7463 descend (0.7747) to keep overall bearish structure intact.

Firm break below 10SMA sees minor obstacles on the way to key supports at 0.7642/31 (29 Mar low / weekly cloud base / weekly 100SMA) break of which would be strong bearish signal.

Plethora of MA barriers which lies above our key 0.7735/47 barriers, heavily weighs and may provide strong headwinds for recovery attempts in alternative scenario on break above 0.7735/47.

Res: 0.7735, 0.7747, 0.7777, 0.7809
Sup: 0.7672, 0.7642,0.7631, 0.7600

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.27; (P) 149.85; (R1) 150.90; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook. Choppy rise from 144.97 is seen as a corrective move. We'd expect strong resistance from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 148.37 minor support will bring retest of 144.97 low first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.49; (P) 130.84; (R1) 131.45; More....

Intraday bias remains neutral as consolidative trading continues in range of 1.2894/132.40. With 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8703; (P) 0.8731; (R1) 0.8747; More...

EUR/GBP is still bounded in range of 0.8666/8796 at this point. Intraday bias remains neutral first. 0.8666/86 is seen as an important support zone. But break of 0.8666 will resume whole fall from 0.9305 and target 0.8312 key support. On the upside, above 0.8796 will resume the rebound from 0.8666 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.8967 to 0.8666 at 0.8852 and above.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5855; (P) 1.5955; (R1) 1.6010; More....

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook. With 1.5857 support intact, another rise is expected. On the upside, above 1.6084 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6189 first. Break will resume the whole rally from 1.5153 and target 1.6587 key resistance. Nonetheless, break of 1.5857 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.5621 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it's still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5621 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

The pair maintains bullish tone on Thursday, as greenback regained traction on hopes that trade war can be averted and probes through 107 barrier after short-lived dip to 106 on Wednesday and repeated close above a cluster of MA’s which are converging and continue to underpin.

Fresh bullish acceleration broke above 106.87 pivot (Fibo 38.2% of 110.48/104.63 descend) which capped Wednesday’s action, looking for fresh bullish signal on close above.

Bulls eye key barriers at 107.33 (falling 55SMA) and 107.50 (base of thick daily cloud), violation of which could generate stronger signal for extension of recovery phase from 104.63 (26 Mar low). Broken Fibo barrier at 106.87 marks initial support, while 30SMA (106.18) is expected to contain dips.

Strong momentum on daily chart is supportive factor, along with converging 10/20 SMA’s in attempt to form bullish cross), however, slow stochastic is entering overbought zone and could signal hesitation on approach to key 107.33/50 barriers.

US weekly jobless claims and trade balance data are highlights on today’s calendar, but focus is on Friday’s release of US jobs data, which could provide stronger direction signal.

Res: 107.33, 107.50, 107.67, 107.90
Sup: 106.87, 106.18, 106.00, 105.65

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1763; (P) 1.1784; (R1) 1.1816; More...

EUR/CHF's rise from 1.1445 resumed by edging higher to 1.1804 and intraday bias is mildly on the upside. For now, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.1832 to bring reversal. Below 1.1730 will turn bias to the downside first. Further break of 1.1649 support will indicate completion of rebound form 1.1445. And the corrective pattern from 1.1832 would then extend with another decline to retest 1.1445. However, firm break of 1.1832 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

UK PMI services dropped sharply to 51.7 in March, downf rom 54.5 and missed expectation of 54.0. That's the lowest level in 20 months and it's "partly linked to snow distruption".

Quote from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit:

• "The UK economy iced up in March, suffering the weakest increase in business activity since the Brexit vote amid widespread disruptions caused by some of the heaviest snowfall in years. As a result, first quarter economic growth will likely have been adversely affected. The PMI surveys collectively signal a quarterly GDP growth rate of just under 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the fourth quarter, albeit with the rate of growth sliding to just 0.15% in March alone.
• "Inflationary pressures meanwhile picked up again in March. Although running below the peaks seen late last year, rates of both input cost and selling price inflation suggest consumer price inflation could remain stubbornly high in coming months.
• "The latest dip in the survey indicators is comparable to prior months in which the country saw heavy snow, and so will probably do little to alter policymakers' view on the underlying health of the economy. The indications of solid employment growth and stubbornly high price pressures therefore leave a widely-touted May rate hike very much in play.
• "A strong rebound is nevertheless likely to be needed to ensure the majority of policymakers feel the economy is ready for another hike in interest rates. Encouragingly, in January 2010 and December 2010, the PMI fell sharply due to heavy snow but in both cases the decline was more than reversed in the following month. Some caution is warranted this year, however, as a drop in business expectations about the year ahead during March suggests the underlying trend remains one of weaker economic growth compared to that seen late last year."