Sample Category Title

The USD/JPY seems to be building a larger consolidation zone, which could be explained by a wave 4 correction (blue). Price did break above a resistance trend line (red) but price still remains below shallow Fib levels such as the 38.2-50% Fibs. A bullish break above those levels would change the wave perspective to bullish whereas a break below support (blue) could see a bearish continuation.

The USD/JPY seems to be building multiple ABC zigzags (brown) at the moment, which could be part of an expanded WXY (orange) correction within wave 4 (blue). Price needs to break below the support trend line (blue) before a bearish continuation is likely. For the moment a bullish push towards the Fib levels could be part of wave C (brown) as long as price stays below the 50% Fib at 107.86.

Short Term Elliott Wave view in Copper suggests that the decline to 2.938 on 3.26.2018 ended Minor wave IV. The metal started a new leg higher from there in Minor wave V. Subdivision of Minor wave V is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. An Impulse Elliott Wave structure is a 5 waves structure where wave 1, 3, and 5 subdivision are also internally in 5 waves (impulsive). In the case of Copper, up from 2.938, Minutte wave (i) ended at 3.024, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 2.968, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 3.072, and Minutte wave (iv) ended at 3.037.

Near term focus is on 3.081 – 3.095 to complete Minutte wave (v). This next leg higher in Minutte wave (v) should end Minute wave ((i)) of a larger degree. Copper should then pullback in Minute wave ((ii)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 3/26/2018 low before the rally resumes, provided pivot at 2.938 low stays intact. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear while Minute wave ((ii)) dips stay above 2.938 low.

Copper Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.37% against the USD and closed at 0.7687.

LME Copper prices rose 1.1% or $71.0/MT to $6756.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.7% or $13.0/MT to $2010.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7707, with the AUD trading 0.26% higher against the USD from yesterday's close, following upbeat Australian retail sales report.

Data revealed that Australia's seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.6% on a monthly basis in February, exceeding market expectations for a gain of 0.3%, thus suggesting that consumer spending would likely contribute to the nation's growth in the first quarter of 2018. In the previous month, retail sales had advanced by a revised 0.2%.

On the other hand, the nation's seasonally adjusted building approvals retreated more-than-anticipated by 6.2% MoM in February, compared to market consensus for a fall of 5.0%. In the previous month, building approvals had risen by a revised 17.2%.

Elsewhere in China, Australia's largest trading partner, the Caixin/Markit services PMI unexpectedly eased to a 4-month low level of 52.3 in March, confounding market expectations for a rise to a level of 54.5. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a reading of 54.2.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7677, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7647. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7727, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7747.

Going forward, Australia's AiG performance of services index for March as well as trade balance figures for February, due to release overnight, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.24% against the USD and closed at 1.2272, following a slowdown in manufacturing sector activity across the Euro-zone.

The Euro-zone's final Markit manufacturing PMI declined to an 8-month low level of 56.6 in March, confirming the preliminary figures. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a level of 58.6.

Separately, Germany's final Markit manufacturing PMI dropped more than initially estimated to a level of 58.2 in March, hitting its lowest level in more than a year. In the previous month, the PMI had recorded a reading of 60.6, while the flash estimate had recorded a fall to a level of 58.4. Further, the nation's retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.7% on a monthly basis in February, declining for the third straight month and dampening hopes that private consumption will propel growth in Euro-bloc's largest economy in the first quarter of 2018. In the preceding month, retail sales had fallen by a revised 0.3%, while investors had envisaged for a gain of 0.7%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2281, with the EUR trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2245, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2208. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2327, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2372.

Going ahead, traders would closely monitor the Euro-zone's flash inflation figures for March and unemployment rate data for February, both scheduled to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the release of US ADP employment change, the ISM non-manufacturing index as well as the final Markit manufacturing PMI, all for March, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.1% against the USD and closed at 1.4064, aided by a surprise rise in British manufacturing sector activity.

Data indicated that UK's Markit manufacturing PMI recorded an unexpected rise to a level of 55.1 in March, defying market expectations for a fall to a level of 54.7. The PMI had registered a revised reading of 55.0 in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4086, with the GBP trading 0.16% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Britain's BRC shop price index fell 1.0% on an annual basis in March, declining at its fastest pace in more than a year and following a drop of 0.8% in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.4039, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3992. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4115, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4144.

Trading trend in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the release of UK's Markit construction PMI for March, set to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.38% against the CHF and closed at 0.9587.

On the data front, Switzerland’s real retail sales eased 0.2% on an annual basis in February, compared to a revised drop of 0.4% in the prior month. Further, the nation’s SVME PMI fell to a level of 60.3 in March, after recording a reading of 65.5 in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a fall to a level of 64.3.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9580, with the USD trading 0.07% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9543, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9506. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9607, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9634.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.9% against the CAD and closed at 1.2799.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2786, with the USD trading 0.1% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2739, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2692. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2869, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2952.

Amid no macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investors would await Canada’s unemployment rate data for March, due to release on Friday.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.65% against the JPY and closed at 106.53.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 106.51, with the USD trading slightly lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan's Nikkei services PMI fell to a level of 50.9 in March, expanding at its weakest pace since October 2016. The PMI had recorded a level of 51.7 in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 105.96, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 105.41. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.86, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.21.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.62% against the USD and closed at USD1336.70 per ounce, pressured by a rally in US equities and strength in the greenback.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1338.60, with gold trading 0.14% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1332.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1325.67. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1345.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1352.67.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 1.15% against the USD and closed at USD16.40 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.42, with silver trading 0.12% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 16.31, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.19. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.57, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.71.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.