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Oil Trading On A Weaker Footing, Ahead Of EIA’s Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.9% against the USD and closed at USD63.58 per barrel, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise crude draw in US crude oil inventories last week.

The API indicated that US crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended 30 March.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 63.37, with oil trading 0.33% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 62.97, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 62.58. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 63.81, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 64.26.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.92; (P) 149.43; (R1) 150.38; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. Choppy rise from 144.97 is seen as a corrective move. We'd expect strong resistance from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.65 minor support will bring retest of 144.97 low first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.20; (P) 130.56; (R1) 131.13; More....

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook as it's staying in range of 1.2894/132.40. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6012; (P) 1.6048; (R1) 1.6091; More....

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6189 extends lower today but it's kept above 1.5857 support. Another rise is still expected in EUR/AUD. Above 1.6084 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6189 first. Break will resume the whole rally from 1.5153 and target 1.6587 key resistance. Nonetheless, break of 1.5857 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.5621 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it's still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5621 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8704; (P) 0.8734; (R1) 0.8754; More...

EUR/GBP drops sharply to as low as 0.8712 so far but it's still staying in range of 0.8666/8796. Intraday bias remains neutral first. 0.8666/86 is seen as an important support zone. But break of 0.8666 will resume whole fall from 0.9305 and target 0.8312 key support. On the upside, above 0.8796 will resume the rebound from 0.8666 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.8967 to 0.8666 at 0.8852 and above.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1740; (P) 1.1757; (R1) 1.1778; More...

EUR/CHF continues to stay in tight range below 1.1803 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Above 1.1802 will extend the rise from 1.1445. But, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.1832 to bring reversal. Break of of 1.1649 support will indicate completion of rebound form 1.1445. And the corrective pattern from 1.1832 would then extend with another decline to retest 1.1445. However, firm break of 1.1832 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.98; (P) 106.31; (R1) 106.94; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it's stuck in range below 107.00. Another rise is mildly in favor as long as 105.31 minor support holds. Above 107.00 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we'll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.31 minor support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9547; (P) 0.9572; (R1) 0.9611; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the upside. The choppy rebound from 0.9186 is extending. But still, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 0.9626 key fibonacci level to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.9521 will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9432 support. Break there will indicate near term reversal and completion of rebound from 0.9186. However, sustained break of 0.9626 will be another evidence of larger reversal. In this case, further rise would be seen to next fibonacci level at 0.9900.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4023; (P) 1.4056; (R1) 1.4091; More....

No change in GBP/USD's outlook as it's bounded in tight range above 1.4008 temporary low. On the downside, firm break of 1.3982 will indicate completion of the rise from 1.3711. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.3711. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 1.3982, followed by break of 1.4243 will target 1.4345 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519 next

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2236; (P) 1.2285 (R1) 1.2318; More....

EUR/USD recovers mildly ahead of 1.2238 support. But intraday bias stays on the downside for the moment. Corrective recovery from 1.2154 should have completed with three waves up to 1.2475. Deeper decline is expected to 1.2154 and below. Break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.2344 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.